The Oklahoma City Thunder recently became the seventh team in NBA history to win 68 games. Six of those teams went to the NBA Finals. Five of them won it all.
This is a historically dominant group, especially on the defensive end. OKC leads almost all catch-all metrics on defense. From deflections, to point-of-attack stops, to rim protection, the Thunder cover all bases. OKC's point differential this season (12.9) is the highest ever.
If you're looking to pick a winner on the West side of the bracket, OKC is the obvious choice. We don't really need to overthink it. This is a young group and folks love to glamorize the glitzier markets, but OKC has passed every test to date. It would qualify as a genuine surprise if this team fell short of the conference finals, and probably the NBA Finals.
That said, the West is notoriously deep and there are a lot of high-level teams in the mix. Let's rank the next-best groups by how next-best they are. As in, here are all West playoff teams ranked by their potential to unseat OKC this spring.
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9. Sacramento Kings
The Sacramento Kings basically fell off a cliff after the De'Aaron Fox trade. As it turns out, investing in DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine after their misbegotten partnership in Chicago was, in fact, a bad idea. The Kings are a bottom-10 defense trending in the wrong direction, and none of their stars are particularly proven on the postseason stage. We know Domantas Sabonis has his warts in the playoffs. It's a grim scene.
8. Dallas Mavericks
Anthony Davis can win you a game or two, but the Dallas Mavericks are basically without a starting point guard sans Kyrie Irving. This group is too new as well; AD has appeared in nine games since the trade. Dallas is hurt, there's zero continuity to speak of, and the vibes are abysmal after the predictable fallout of the Luka Dončić swap. It would be sincerely shocking if Dallas makes it past the first round.
7. Memphis Grizzlies
There have been a few positive trends since the Memphis Grizzlies fired Taylor Jenkins mere weeks ago, but it's still hard to trust the team that fired its head coach weeks before the postseason. Ja Morant has been up and down all season. We don't really know how Zach Edey with fare on this stage.
The Grizzlies are plenty talented, and interim head coach Tuomas Iisalo generally seems to have his bearings on a malleable rotation, but Memphis has been in too much of a funk down the stretch to trust in a series with no margin for error.
6. Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors are 23-8 since Jimmy Butler arrived, but the Play-In Tournament is unpredictable and it's tough to fully trust such a new group against the upper-echelon of the West. Golden State's core is as experienced as any in the league — Steph, Draymond and Butler all have their share of postseason merits — but the Dubs' supporting cast has been hit or miss for much of the season and OKC's young legs threaten to run an older Golden State lineup into the ground.
5. Denver Nuggets
Nikola Jokic is the best player in the world and he's an especially tricky matchup for OKC, even with Isaiah Hartenstein's added physicality in the frontcourt. That said, the Denver Nuggets' defense has been in the dumps for a while and Michael Malone, their championship-winning head coach, was fired literal days ago. No disrespect to David Adelman, but it's hard to trust the Nuggets to come together in time to mount a deep run. OKC is too connected, too deep, too talented. Even if Denver scores on OKC's vaunted defense, I'm not sure the Nuggets can keep Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in check.
4. Minnesota Timberwolves
The Minnesota Timberwolves are a sneaky threat in the No. 6 seed. Minnesota matches up well with the West heavyweights, OKC included. Their size and physicality has given the Thunder problems in the past. Anthony Edwards is ready for his "I'm here" moment and the Wolves were in the conference finals just last season.
This is a different group without Karl-Anthony Towns, but the bones are similar and Chris Finch knows what he's doing on the sideline. The Wolves ending up in the Finals sounds wacky, but it's not impossible.
3. Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets ran away with the No. 2 seed in the end. This is probably the deepest team in the West aside from OKC, and we know Ime Udoka has experience in the postseason. So do Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Steven Adams.
On balance, however, the Rockets are a young group that hasn't made its postseason bones yet. Houston is in a position where proof is required; until the Rockets mount a deep run against more established contenders, there will be an inherent lack of trust.
2. Los Angeles Clippers
The Los Angeles Clippers have essentially been the best team in the NBA over the last month. It's impossible to express faith in the durability of Kawhi Leonard, but he's on a heater. James Harden still has his fastball, too, even if it looks different than it used to.
Ivica Zubac's thundering size can give OKC's thinner frontcourt problems and Los Angeles has been surprisingly stout in terms of perimeter defense, with Kris Dunn leading the charge. Assuming health — again, a big assumption with this group — the Clippers may finally be in position for a deep run.
1. Los Angeles Lakers
The Los Angeles Lakers are not the deepest or most well-rounded team in the West, but it's Luka Dončić and LeBron James (and Austin Reaves). How can you not pick them? We know Dončić has OKC's number. LeBron, defensive concerns and all, remains one of the great postseason performers of all time, and this may very well be his last, best shot at capturing another championship. Reaves has been on fire. LA generates so many quick advantages on offense, even OKC's all-time defense may struggle to keep them in check.
The Lakers' defense is a huge question — I'm not sure how trustworthy Jaxson Hayes is in the playoffs — but JJ Redick has quietly been one of the most innovative defensive coaches in the NBA this season. You gotta trust Dončić to at least make this series interesting in the end.