For months, the 2024 NBA Draft class was saddled with negative labels — weak, shallow, less than. In the end, those smears proved... largely correct. That's not to say there won't be several quality NBA players to come out of the 2024 draft, but the rookie crop was underwhelming across the board. The Rookie of the Year race came down to Stephon Castle, who came off the bench for 34 games, and Zaccharie Risacher, who averaged 12.6 points on 55.8 percent true shooting.
Both Castle and Risacher were awesome down the stretch, but neither put up numbers we'd typically associate with the top rookie award. In a normal year, we'd be saying "those guys are promising," not, "those guys are the gems of the draft."
The 2024 rookie class will be fine in the long run. We might not get a lot of All-Stars, but there will be plenty of long, fruitful NBA careers. That is fine. Not every class is 2003 or 2023. Still, NBA fans will need to temper expectations across the board. A lot of the most popular prospects were extremely flawed from the jump and will need a patient hand at the NBA level. Some will just flame out, as is always the case.
For the purposes of this article, let's dive into four NBA sophomores who showed flashes as a rookie, but who might not break out in the way fans expect just yet.
Ryan Dunn, Phoenix Suns
One of the early bright spots from the 2024 rookie crop was Phoenix Suns forward Ryan Dunn. He quickly carved out a prominent role on a Suns team many of us thought would at least contend for a Play-In spot. Dunn was always renowned for his defense in college, and that translated immediately to the next level. But what made his rookie breakout so impressive was the shooting.
Through his first 10 games, Dunn shot 39.5 percent on 3.8 attempts per game from deep. For a player who barely shot (or made) 3s at Virginia, the sudden spike in volume and efficiency was a genuine shock. Had Dunn been anything close to a functional offensive player in Charlottesville, he would've gone much higher than 28th overall.
By season's end, however, Dunn was only shooting 31.1 percent on 3s. He still outperformed expectations in that department, but his efficiency cratered as the campaign progressed. While the defense was strong all the way through, and there's a world in which Dunn is competing for All-Defense honors one day, he was extremely limited in his offensive impact. He's athletic enough to prosper as a cutter and even an occasional lob threat out of the pick-and-roll, but Dunn's lack of touch and coordination puts him (and his team) in a compromised position. He doesn't read the floor especially well and he's limited in what he can accomplish beyond dunks, layups and inefficient spot-up 3s.
Odds are, Dunn won't magically fix his jumper by next season. The Suns will give him plenty of burn, but he's going to be fighting for minutes with the likes of Dillon Brooks and Jordan Goodwin, not to mention rookie newcomer Rasheer Fleming — a prototypical 3-and-D forward. That puts Dunn in the danger zone. Even as the Suns reset and look more toward the future, Dunn's role — now and long term — is a bit hazy unless he ramps up the scoring.
Rob Dillingham, Minnesota Timberwolves
As someone who put Rob Dillingham sixth overall on his 2024 big board, this hurts. Dillingham was an energizer bunny off the bench at Kentucky, dazzling fans with his handle and his pull-up shooting, while also creating events with his defense and putting together one hell of a passing reel.
The Minnesota Timberwolves gave up a future first-round pick to move up and select Dillingham with the eighth pick. That was a huge investment from a team with limited draft assets, and a sign of confidence that Dillingham would be able to contribute in year one. Unfortunately, Dillingham spent the majority of his rookie season glued to the bench. Chris Finch went to him occasionally when the offense needed a jolt, but Dillingham's slight 6-foot-1 frame made it difficult for Minnesota to trust him defensively.
A lot of folks are anticipating a more robust opportunity for Dillingham in year two. He should definitely get more minutes and more chances to stick in the rotation, but it's also wise to pump the breaks a little bit. The defensive concerns aren't going anywhere, and few coaches appreciate consistent stops from all five positions more than Finch. It's also fair to wonder how badly Minnesota needs Dillingham's shot-making and creation skills when Anthony Edwards and Mike Conley are on the floor, not to mention a more experienced and immediately impactful second-year guard in Terrence Shannon Jr.
Back-to-back conference finals appearances has Minnesota aiming for the moon. This is a stout, cohesive unit, and the Wolves aren't going to sacrifice regular season success in order to manufacture minutes and touches for Dillingham. As a result, we might want to pencil in at least one more unproductive campaign before the Kentucky product breaks out.
Dalton Knecht, Los Angeles Lakers
Dalton Knecht fell unexpectedly to the Los Angeles Lakers with the 17th overall pick. That was met with tremendous excitement in the fanbase and in the building, with new head coach J.J. Redick especially psyched to add a sharpshooter to the mix. Knecht felt like the perfect first rookie for Redick to mentor — a dominant off-ball scorer who scorched nets from 3-point range and found his way to points out of a variety of actions.
L.A. threw Knecht into the fire, giving the 23-year-old meaningful minutes out of the gate. That is typically the plan with older rookies like Knecht — to bank on experience and years of extra development. It never quite clicked, though. Knecht produced the occasional standout scoring performance, but he couldn't settle into a consistent role and eventually fell out of the rotation. The Lakers even tried to trade him to Charlotte at the deadline, only to walk it back after Mark Williams' faulty physical.
Knecht hit 37.6 percent of his 3s. He will forever be a dependable marksman. But what else can he provide? The Lakers learned a common lesson in the scouting world: to be weary of the older, "ready-now" prospect. Knecht put up absurd numbers at Tennessee, but he was one of the oldest stars in college basketball. Moreover, Knecht was never much of a passer. The defense was always a problem. Those shortcomings manifested big time in the NBA. Knecht can shoot, and even attack closeouts and score at the rim, but he's rather one-dimensional.
It's hard for one-note players to survive at the highest level of NBA competition. Knecht also looked out of sorts in Summer League last month, which is especially worrisome. When a 24-year-old NBA sophomore can't stomp the competition in Las Vegas, it's generally a bad sign. Bronny James was the best Lakers sophomore in Sin City. As such, Lakers fans should adjust expectations in advance. Knecht feels closer to a bust than a lucky draw right now.
Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs
This probably reads as disrespect, but it's not. Stephon Castle put together an impressive rookie campaign, especially after the All-Star break. As injuries took root and the San Antonio Spurs began to tank, Castle essentially took over the offense. He was a prolific slasher and a dependable playmaker, not to mention a highly disruptive defender.
So why would Castle take a step back? He won Rookie of the Year going away. Many Spurs fans view him as not only a future star, but an untouchable pillar of the organization when his name comes up in trade rumors. San Antonio did not want to involve Castle in Kevin Durant negotiations, for example.
While the Spurs' faith in Castle is understandable given their track record of player development, we are probably overrating the season he had. It's easy to conflate Rookie of the Year with guaranteed future stardom, but Castle only hit 28.5 percent of his 3s. He made impressive strides as a de facto point guard (4.1 assists, 2.2 turnovers) but San Antonio won't need Castle to handle the rock a ton moving forward.
Not only did the Spurs hand a four-year max extension to De'Aaron Fox, but San Antonio also selected Rutgers jumbo guard Dylan Harper with the No. 2 overall pick in June. Harper is another tall playmaker who struggles to consistently convert from 3-point range. While Castle has the edge in experience, Harper is a more polished facilitator and at-rim finisher. He's one of the most dominant driving guards to enter the NBA ranks in a long time.
Sooner than later, the Spurs will need to let Harper off the leash. Considering that Fox isn't a prolific outside shooter either, there will only be so much room on the floor for San Antonio's backcourt triumvirate. At least one of them will feel the squeeze eventually; don't be shocked if it's Castle, who offers the least value as an off-ball scorer and connector.
This is not to say Castle is a bad off-ball scorer and connector. He's just not on Harper's level, or at least, he wasn't as a prospect. A second-year leap is very much in the cards, but it's more likely that Castle underwhelms relative to the lofty expectations (unfairly) ascribed to him post-Rookie of the Year.