5 NBA gambles that won't have the FBI knocking on your door

The NBA season is 82 games long, but after such a long, basketball-less summer, it only takes one game to grease the wheels on the hot take machine. Every team but the Pacers and Nuggets now has a game under their belt after two nights of action, and let's just say that it's been an eventful 48 hours.

The on-court action has been absolute cinema on its own, but this morning the NBA turned into a full-on thriller worthy of a Martin Scorsese screenplay thanks to the arrests of Damon Jones, Chauncey Billups and Terry Rozier in connection with illegal gambling and rigged poker games with Mafia ties.

If that sounds unbelievable to you, you're not alone, because the entire sports world is still reeling from this wild turn of events. Billups, the Trail Blazers head coach who signed a multi-year contract extension in April, has been placed on leave by the NBA, as has Rozier, the Miami Heat guard.

Billups is accused of profiting off of illegal poker games that cheated unknowing players out of their money through an elaborate system that included the use of x-ray machines built into poker tables, hi-tech contact lenses that could read pre-marked cards and secret cameras installed in card trays.

Rozier is alleged to have taken himself out of a game for the purpose of helping prop bets against him hit. Jones faces similar charges for allegedly using his insider knowledge to help co-conspirators place bets, one of which was against the Lakers because he knew that his former Cavs teammate LeBron James planned to sit out a 2023 game.

Needless to say, none of us want the FBI knocking on our door, especially if Kash Patel is leading the charge and looking every which way in his khakis and official government windbreaker. For those who live in states where sports gambling is illegal, and who are allowed to partake because they're not involved in anyway with the NBA, we've got some bets inspired by what went down in these first games. Some of these may prove to be overreactions, but as of now they all feel like the smart play given what we've seen. All odds are current on FanDuel as of Thursday afternoon.

Victor Wembanyama to win MVP: +340

Victor Wembanyama' first two seasons in the league confirmed that although he was still raw on the offensive end, the immeasurable hype surrounding him was very much real. Wemby has looked every bit like the once-in-a-lifetime talent he was projected to be when the Spurs drafted him first overall. That hadn't quite translated into winning games his first two seasons, but if San Antonio's first game of the season is any indication, this evolved version of Wemby is locked and loaded for a full takeover.

Donald Trump may try to put a tariff on Wemby after what he did to the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday night. The French import was like a videogame character with the sliders turned all the way up, and his list of highlights from this game alone might single-handedly rip away Dominique Wilkins' title of "The Human Highlight Reel."

If Wemby plays like this on a nightly basis, there's not a thing that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic or anyone else can do to stop him from winning the MVP award. His contributions on the defensive end dwarf what every other player in the game can do by a wide margin, and the polish he showed with his handle and spacial awareness last night is going to make him completely unstoppable on the offensive end, too.

If you're betting on Wemby to win his first MVP, you're really betting on two things, because we already see that there's no ceiling to what he can do. You need him healthy enough to play 65 games, and you need the Spurs to win enough to not take him out of the race.

Wemby missed the end of last season with deep vein thrombosis in his shoulder, a condition that seems to be in the past now. Injuries will always be a concern for someone of his size, but bear in mind that he did play 71 games in his rookie season and hasn't been plagued by anything chronic to this point.

As far as the winning goes, the Mavericks were excited to open the Cooper Flagg era with a bang, but behind Wemby's effort, the Spurs made their in-state rivals look like a JV team. Even Anthony Davis was powerless to stop Wemby's attack, and most teams don't have someone in the same defensive echelon as AD.

VJ Edgecombe to win Rookie of the Year: +250

Flagg entered the season as a huge favorite to capture the Rookie of the Year award, but the odds have shifted considerably after just one night. The Duke product did put up a double-double, however it was an ugly one with 10 points and 10 rebounds on 4-13 shooting. Flagg was held scoreless in the first half and finished the game without an assist despite being the nominal starting point guard.

No. 2 overall pick Dylan Harper outplayed Flagg in nine fewer minutes of court time, but over 1,500 miles away, No. 3 pick VJ Edgecombe exploded onto the scene in a way we haven't seen in 66 years. Edgecombe led the Sixers with 42 minutes, and his 34 points in his debut were the most since Wilt Chamberlain announced himself with 43 in 1959.

Edgecombe and Tyrese Maxey, who scored a game-high 40 of his own, stole the show, leading the Sixers to an unexpected one-point road win over the Celtics. Joel Embiid was extremely ineffective in 20 minutes, and Paul George sat out as he continues to rehab after offseason knee surgery.

There could be huge minutes available to Edgecombe all year, and with the way he played, he's going to earn them regardless of the health of his veteran teammates. As our own Julian Fadullon put it, Edgecombe's play could force George into a realization that podcasting should be his full-time gig.

Flagg, meanwhile, will play at best a secondary offensive role to Anthony Davis on the Mavericks, but he'll also slot in behind Kyrie Irving once he returns. He may not be able to match Edgecombe's counting stats if the first game is any indication, which could allow Edgecombe to get revenge for Flagg and Duke's second-round NCAA Tournament win over his Baylor Bears in March by pulling a Rookie of the Year upset.

The Knicks to win the East: +360

Entering the season, most prognosticators saw the Eastern Conference as a two-horse race between the Cavs and the Knicks, with up-and-coming young teams like the Magic, Hawks and Pistons a clear tier below.

Those two favorites met in the first game, but whereas the Cavs opened last season on a 15-game winning streak on their way to the 1-seed, the Knicks dropped an L on their head before they caught sight of the win column this time.

There are many reasons to be bullish on the Knicks. It would have been reasonable to expect the coaching transition from Tom Thibodeau to Mike Brown to take some time to work out the kinks, but it seems to have been a seamless one. This Knicks team is deeper than last year's version, which combined with Brown's propensity to play his starters less than Thibodeau should result in a fresher team when the postseason arrives. Josh Hart didn't even play, and still the Knicks went 11 deep.

The Knicks have also proven themselves more than the Cavs in the playoffs, winning two tough series against the Pistons and defending champion Celtics to reach the Eastern Conference Finals last year. The Cavs blew out the 37-win Heat in the first round, then got bounced in five games by the Pacers, who needed six games to beat the Knicks a series later.

Getting +360 odds on the Knicks to get to the Finals feels like a steal, especially when the Thunder are +125 in a stacked West.

Luka Doncic to win the scoring title: +380

Four different players opened their season with a 40-point scoring outburst. We've already mentioned Wemby and Maxey, but ahead of them were Luka Dončić with 43 and Anthony Edwards with 41. Other notable performance included Alperen Sengun with an extremely impressive 39 against the Thunder, 37 from Giannis Antetokounmpo in only 27 minutes, and 35 from both Ja Morant and defending scoring champ Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Who is going to win the scoring title this year? SGA needed overtime to get to 35, but he was also uncharacteristically inefficient. He'll be in the mix again, though Mark Daigneault may slightly lessen his workload after all the mileage he put on last year. Giannis stands as the clear No. 1 option on a Bucks team that needs everything he can give them now that Dame Lillard is no longer around.

The Grizzlies need Ja's offense, especially in the wake of the Desmond Bane trade, but he's never been a good bet to stay healthy. Sengun will be competing with KD and others for shots, while Ant has raised his scoring average every year in the league, his 27.6 points per game is still lower than anything Luka has done since his rookie year.

I like Luka to win his first scoring crown. It's been well-publicized how he spent the summer morphing into "Skinny Luka" by shedding 30 pounds, but he really did look good physically in a losing effort against the Warriors. Golden State threw defenders like Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler and Gary Payton II at him, but he still hung 43 on them anyway.

Nobody is quite sure how long LeBron James is going to be out as he deals with his sciatica, but that's not something that's likely to just go away. Luka is going to have the car keys all season, even once LeBron gets back, but in the meantime, it wouldn't be surprising if he scores 40 more often than he doesn't.

Austin Reaves is one of the best third option scorers in the league, and he ran up 26 points of his own against Golden State as he was promoted to the Robin to Luka's Batman. Other than LeBron, there's nobody else on this roster who can get their own shot, so with so many guaranteed possessions where Luka has the ball in his hands, his usage rate is going to be through the roof.

Giannis could challenge for the crown, but his uncertain situation (will he ask for a trade at some point?) makes a bet on him inherently riskier. Luka signed his extension to remain in L.A. this summer. He's in the best shape of his professional life, and he has as much opportunity as any player in the league. SGA scored 32.7 points per game last year to lead the league, and Luka could easily top that.

The Rockets to win over 52.5 games: +100

Rockets fans have to be heartbroken after losing such a close game to the defending champs, but there was a silver lining to the loss. Nobody was quite sure how an otherwise stacked team would hold up once Fred VanVleet went down with a torn ACL a month ago, but though Reed Sheppard didn't yet look ready for his close-up, the rest of the team showed that they have what it takes to compete with the best.

The Rockets are even money to go over 52 wins this year, and Tuesday night's loss was enough to tell me that they're going to do it. Sengun has been called "Baby Jokic" for his similar skillset to the three-time MVP, but he looked like he leveled up to at least "Teenage Jokic" in the offseason. Like Luka, he was a monster at the EuroBasket tournament, and in this game he was knocking down 3s, exploiting mismatches, getting to the free throw line and in general looking like one of the most complete players in the world.

Amen Thompson is the favorite for Most Improved Player for a reason, and his work on the defensive end made SGA fight for every inch all night. Jabari Smith Jr. showed vast offensive improvement, and his defense has already been at an elite level. Dorian Finney-Smith's eventual debut will give Ime Udoka yet another piece with which to torment opposing offenses.

Kevin Durant scored 23 in his first appearance as a Rocket, but he seemed slightly off his game for most of the night. There's no worries about one of the most gifted scorers to ever play figuring out how to fit in the Houston offense over the long haul, so the question is, how can Houston not get to 53 wins? Yes the West is tough, but few teams can match them defensively, and three of their most important players have clearly improved from a year ago. The upgrade from Jalen Green to KD is a massive one, and this team won 52 last year. No point guard, no problem.

If you do choose to bet, do it responsibly and legally. The FBI seems to have its hands full right now, but you don't want to hear that doorbell ring.