The 2025-26 NBA landscape is as complicated and indecipherable as it has ever been. We generally know the favorites — OKC and Denver in the West, Cleveland and New York in the East — but so much has the potential to go sideways compared to our preseason expectations.
There are pretty much 14 teams in the West trying to win games this season. The New Orleans Pelicans, the 14th-place team last season, just traded their 2026 first-round pick — unprotected — to draft Derik Queen. That shows extreme (if misguided) confidence from New Orleans. And the teams ahead of them aren't exactly getting worse, with the possible exception of Golden State. The Warriors still have 10 players on their roster in mid-September.
As for the East, it's a different kind of crapshoot — one governed less by extreme quality of competition and more by a talent vacuum that must be filled, one way or another. Boston and Indiana are both taking a competitive hiatus as Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton nurse Achilles injuries. That leaves the door wide open to surprise teams making surprise gains.
Let's canvass the NBA now for the five teams with the widest range of potential outcomes, the most boom-or-bust volatility.
5. Toronto Raptors
So the Toronto Raptors are ... good? Maybe? Last season was brutal, but there's so much talent on the roster. We can quibble with the merits of the Brandon Ingram trade and his subsequent extension, but he's an All-Star at his peak. Scottie Barnes remains a two-way force. Immanuel Quickley is healthy now. Gradey Dick took a major leap in year two. Collin Murray-Boyles was the No. 3 prospect on the FanSided big board and a huge draft-night victory for the Raptors.
It's hard not to love the individual pieces. Darko Rajaković still needs to prove himself as a winning head coach, but it's hard to blame him for the last couple years of impotence. Toronto has struggled to put a complete team on the court. Injury concerns won't magically disappear this season, which keeps the floor relatively low, but the Raptors are one of several teams in a position to capitalize on just how barren the East in this season.
Spacing will be a significant concern. CMB, for example, should play a ton of minutes as a rookie. He's going to elevate an already-good defensive roster, but he can't shoot. Barnes is a low-volume shooter, while R.J. Barrett tends to run hot-or-cold from beyond the arc. Jakob Poeltl can't score outside the paint. Toronto will need Quickly, Ingram and Dick to all stay healthy and really carry the load as shooters.
But in terms of overall talent and depth, we are probably underrating what the Raptors are capable of. Barnes, Ingram and Quickley give Toronto multiple playmaking avenues in the starting lineup. Dick, whether he's the sixth man or he sneaks into the starting lineup, is exactly what the doctor ordered when it comes to movement shooting and connective passing. Poeltl will anchor a long, aggressive defense. Barrett and others could return value in a potential trade deadline upgrade scenario. So ... just keep your eyes peeled for a Toronto surge.
4. Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks are now basically Giannis Antetokounmpo and a bunch of overpriced or unproductive veterans. Doc Rivers has his work cut out for him this season, but then again, if there's anything Rivers has proven over the last few years, it's that he can still coach well above his means with a mediocre roster. He can't necessarily get a team over the hump, but he still wins in the regular season and knows how to make the most out of a lopsided group.
Giannis is arguably the second-best player in the world. He alone ensures a certain floor, especially in the East. He is by far the best player in the conference, assuming we've seen the last of Joel Embiid's MVP years. The Bucks will have the best player in any postseason series, which can go a long way.
That said, after consecutive first-round losses to Indiana, it's starting to feel like the Bucks are dead in the water. The Khris Middleton-Kyle Kuzma trade was made out of desperation and looks catastrophic in hindsight; you just cannot expect Kuzma to effectively operate as the No. 2 scorer on a winner. Myles Turner should aptly replace Brook Lopez as a 3-and-D center, but Milwaukee overpaid to pry him out of Indiana (including taking on an absurd amount of dead money with the Damian Lillard buyout).
Kevin Porter Jr. and Gary Trent Jr. is a woefully bad starting backcourt. Bobby Portis Sr., Cole Anthony and Taurean Prince comprise a workable second unit — Portis might compete for Sixth Man of the Year honors with how much responsibility is about to be foisted upon him — but the Bucks are a genuine mess. This might be the worst team in the NBA without Giannis.
We can never count Giannis out of anything, but he's just as likely to request a trade at the deadline as he is to compete for a top-four seed this season. It doesn't help that Milwaukee basically has zero assets to work with on the trade front. The Bucks lack avenues to meaningful improvement.
3. San Antonio Spurs
The San Antonio Spurs are caught between two timelines a bit. The front office has been extremely deliberate in building this roster out. Victor Wembanyama is only 21 years old, and there's no pressure to put an immediate winner on the floor. That said, Wemby is already bordering on MVP candidacy. He might be good enough to drag San Antonio to contention, even with a half-baked team around him.
Wemby was the runaway Defensive Player of the Year favorite last season before a blood clot forced him to sit out the last couple months. De'Aaron Fox just signed a four-year max extension, so the Spurs are clearly building toward something. Stephon Castle just won Rookie of the Year. Dylan Harper was the No. 2 pick and should impact winning sooner than later, even if young guards typically need a few months to find their footing in the NBA. He's one of the best guard prospects in recent memory.
San Antonio, on paper, has the talent. If Wembanyama takes (another) leap and puts himself in the upper ecehlon of NBA stars, the Spurs will be a tough out. Fox, overpaid or not, is a great second banana and the perfect point guard complement to Wemby's inside-out skill set.
The question is how all this talent fits together. Wemby and Fox definitely work in concert, but Castle and Harper are two low-volume shooters on the perimeter who thrive with the ball in hand. Harper hit enough spot-up 3s at Rutgers to think he will be functional in three-guard lineups, but NBA defenses will force him to earn their respect as a shooter. Castle was sub-30 percent on 3s as a rookie and, frankly, there's no reason to expect a huge efficiency leap in year two.
There's a world in which the Spurs unleash a trio of dynamic ball-handlers around Wembanyama and just blitz teams from the start. There's also a world in which San Antonio's backcourt spends the whole season working through warts in spacing and process, leaving the Spurs hoping for lottery luck again next summer. Time will tell which way the pendulum swings.
2. Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks will spend a couple months without Kyrie Irving as he rehabs from a torn ACL. It's unclear what exactly we can expect from this team in his absence. Regardless, Nico Harrison's categorically stupid Luka Dončić trade looms large; even if this team is still "good," it almost feels like divine karma will keep the Mavericks at bay.
In more realistic terms, the Mavericks' roster construction is a bit wonky. Jason Kidd has already floated the possibility of "Point Guard Cooper Flagg," which is not the best use of the No. 1 overall pick. Anthony Davis and Flagg form a tantalizing duo on both ends, but D'Angelo Russell as the stopgap point guard is a recipe for disappointment. P.J. Washington just inked a $90 million extension, but there's a good chance he comes off the bench in favor of Dereck Lively and AD in the starting frontcourt. Lively is a perfectly capable starter in a vacuum, but the spacing next to Davis would be ... less than ideal.
Flagg was historically dominant as a freshman at Duke and he should excel this season, but he's also the youngest player in the NBA and Dallas is about to put a full offensive workload on his plate. There is a world in which Flagg flourishes and excels at everything the Mavs ask him to do. There is also a (more likely) world in which Flagg needs time to adjust to the speed and physicality of NBA basketball. Asking him to operate as a primary facilitator and go-to scorer right out of the gate is risky, bordering on irresponsible.
Dallas should be one of the best defenses in the NBA, which will keep them afloat as Irving works his way back. Once Irving rejoins the fray, Dallas has the necessary talent to challenge just about anyone in the West. But Kidd's coaching résumé is mixed at best and it's fair to wonder if he can get the most out of this group. The vibes around the Mavericks still aren't great, and there is significant volatility baked into this roster.
1. Philadelphia 76ers
On paper, the Philadelphia 76ers might be the best team in the NBA. Even in his severely compromised state last season, Embiid ranked among the most impactful players in the league when he was "healthy," or more accurately, available. Paul George will miss a few weeks to begin the campaign, but he's still a solid 3-and-D wing. Tyrese Maxey is an All-Star on the perimeter. Jared McCain was the Rookie of the Year frontrunner before a meniscus injury cut his season short. VJ Edgecombe, the No. 3 overall pick, could render a significant positive impact out of the gate.
What Philadelphia lacks in depth, it makes up for with top-end talent. It's just a matter of getting all that talent on the floor at the same time: We barely saw Embiid, George and Maxey share the court last season. McCain only played 23 games. Edgecombe, while extremely gifted, is still a rookie with an inconsistent jump shot and rudimentary handles, so expecting immediate stardom is probably a bridge too far.
Embiid has not participated in basketball activities all summer. George is well into his mid-30s and he's already hurt, again. Maxey is incredible, but he can't lead a winner on his own. McCain and Edgecombe are imperfect young players who probably need more patience than the Sixers can actually afford them right now. Even post-trade deadline breakout Quentin Grimes, assuming he re-signs, will need to prove that he can produce in a more refined role.
The Sixers have an MVP candidate, two proven stars and a truly special young core. But getting all the stars to align simultaneously has been a challenge, and it won't get easier as Embiid and George continue to age. Even Maxey missed 30 games last season. His workload over the last few years probably isn't sustainable.
Philadelphia's season essentially hinges on a prayer. There's a chance it all comes together, at least enough to contend in a wide-open East. But there's just as much of a chance that Philly is banking on another leap into the top three of the lottery next summer, when their odds of keeping the pick are even lower.