Every NBA season has a surprise factor. The unexpected breakout star, or conversely, the once-great player who struggles in unforeseen ways. The entire league is governed by unpredictability. Nothing ever goes exactly the way we think it will.
With that in mind, and the 2025-26 NBA season right around the corner, let's canvass the league for those potential wild cards — the mysterious, at times unreliable forces whose success (or lack thereof) could meaningfully alter the trajectory of their teams and the NBA at large.
We can start in the West, with the Memphis Grizzlies' Desmond Bane replacement...
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies made the shocking decision to trade Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic this offseason. I'm not sure there was really another option, though, as Orlando dropped four first-round picks in a haul the Grizzlies simply couldn't say 'no' to. With Jaren Jackson Jr. now expected to miss months of the season, however, Memphis' standing in the rough-and-tumble West is precarious at best.
A lot will be riding on Ja Morant's ability to stay healthy and rebound from a lackluster 2024-25 campaign. The Grizzlies will also need consistent output from their typically deep supporting cast, with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope taking center stage. The 32-year-old started 77 games last season with Orlando, but he was essentially dead weight, hitting only 34.9 percent of his 3s and struggling to generate anything inside the arc.
KCP went from a beloved member of the Denver Nuggets' championship team and one of the most respected role players in the NBA to a source of immense anguish among Magic fans. Is this as simple as KCP leaving Nikola Jokić for a team with far less spacing and playmaking, or is it a sign of a more significant downward trend? Is he over the hill, so to speak?
I'd tend to bet on the latter. Memphis likes to push the tempo and KCP should step into plenty of open looks with Zach Edey setting screens and Morant putting constant pressure on the rim. If KCP can lock in defensively and return to his career averages from 3-point range, the Grizzlies' Bane trade is going to look a lot smarter.
Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers
The Indiana Pacers will endure the entire season without Tyrese Haliburton, their postseason hero and the beating heart of one of the East's most dynamic offenses. This is essentially a gap year, although Rick Carlisle has no intention of taking his foot off the gas pedal. This is still an older roster with significant talent across the board, from a top-25 player in Pascal Siakam to a deep well of backcourt talent.
Andrew Nembhard and T.J. McConnell have both proven themselves capable of stepping up in different ways when Haliburton gets hurt. But what about their projected starting two-guard in Haliburton's absence. That would be Bennedict Mathurin, the sixth overall pick back in 2022. Indiana still has a lot invested in Mathurin, who is only 23 years old. If he takes a step forward, it could help the Pacers sustain this offense without Hali.
That is a huge 'if,' though. Mathurin put up 24 points in Game 7 of the NBA Finals after Haliburton exited the game. He more or less became the focal point of Indiana's offense, taking virtually every touch to the rim with a purpose. And therein lies the concern with Mathurin. When he's on, he's a bucket. A bonafide scoring machine. But that is what he likes to do: score. Ask Mathurin to create for teammates, or just blend into the background when shots aren't falling, and he can struggle. He's a gunner through and through.
Indiana's offense doesn't generally embrace that particular mode, but there will need to be sacrifices on all sides with Haliburton out. If Mathurin can embrace a more team-forward approach (while also taking advantage of the bounty of shots coming his way), it will be huge for the Pacers.
Deandre Ayton, Los Angeles Lakers
The Los Angeles Lakers inked Deandre Ayton to an affordable contract after his buyout in Portland. It felt like the logical outcome for all parties. The Blazers needed to free up minutes for Donovan Clingan and Yang Hansen. The Lakers needed at least one big body to anchor the defense and catch lobs from Luka Dončić. For Ayton, playing next to Luka and LeBron James is a golden opportunity to revive one's career.
And yet, there is an inherent unknown quantity to Ayton. Season to season, game to game, quarter to quarter, you never know exactly what you're going to get. He has been the anchor of a near-championship level defense in Phoenix. He has also been played off the floor countless times in Portland. Ayton's effort is in constant flux. Sometimes he decides to enforce his will and deploy his outlier physical tools to great effect. Other days he will look a step slow and a second late on every defensive rotation while settling for inefficient mid-range jumpers instead of pounding his way to the heart of the paint.
The Lakers need Ayton to show up way more often than he does not, in the sense that he needs to be mentally present, as well as physically present. It is more than fair to be concerned about how consistently Ayton will maximize his tools. Dončić will quickly get frustrated if Ayton is half-rolling into a contested jumper, instead of diving to the rim with a purpose. If Ayton sleepwalks on defense, Los Angeles' porous perimeter defense will once again become untenable.
There is a world in which Ayton realizes this inflection point in his career and commits to going all-out as a screen-setter and lob target for Luka and LeBron. There is also a world in which Ayton's general malaise follows him to L.A. and the Lakers wind up regretting their investment in another subpar center next to the greatest point guard in basketball.
Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans
The New Orleans Pelicans are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Joe Dumars has pushed all his chips in, trading an unprotected 2026 first-round pick to move up seven spots in the draft and select Derik Queen. With all due respect to Queen, a top-10 prospect in my book, that was an absurd overpay — potentially a catastrophic one. The Pelicans need to win games, and yet this team barely has a center rotation, Zion Williamson has never been healthy, and somehow, Jordan Poole is here.
The Pelicans will depend on Dejounte Murray (coming off of an Achilles injury), Zion Williamson (coming off of [insert latest ailment here]), and an extremely young supporting cast to crack the postseason mix in a Western Conference that essentially houses 13 wannabe contenders. Poole has not impacted winning in ages. Trey Murphy is awesome, but he's not going to single-handedly drag this roster into June.
It really does come down to Williamson at the end of the day. When healthy, the former No. 1 pick is one of the most dominant offensive forces in the game of basketball. He's a walking paint touch, virtually unguardable despite a well-documented lack of shooting and a fairly predictable set of moves. Nobody should move as quickly as Williamson does with his size and strength. He's a god-tier finisher in the paint and a legitimate point forward.
If this Pelicans team is going to avoid disaster with their 2026 pick, Williamson needs to be on the floor for 70-plus games. Straight up, New Orleans cannot survive his absence when there are so many question marks elsewhere on the roster. That is a lot of faith to place on Williamson's notoriously undependable shoulders.
Jalen Green, Phoenix Suns
The Phoenix Suns moved on from Kevin Durant this summer, as expected. Less expected was such a weak haul, essentially receiving Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks and Khaman Maluach in exchange for one of our all-time great scorers. Durant is 36 years old, so he's not a spring chicken. But he is still a go-to star with elite efficiency metrics across the board, the type who can take a team to the next level. Giving up on him for a few nickels and a soda pop seems silly.
Okay, Jalen Green is better than a nickel, even a soda pop. But it's really hard to know how exactly to feel about him as Devin Booker's backcourt running mate in Phoenix. The former No. 2 pick has all the talent in the world. It's hard to find players who move like Green does on the court, phasing across space and time with twitchy handles and an electric first step. He can bury tough shots along the perimeter, get into the teeth of the defense at will, and drop 40 points on any given night.
But then there are the other nights, when Green is fumbling the ball away, jacking bad shots at low efficiency, and generally aiding and abetting the opposing offense with his horrendous defense. Green runs hot and cold to an extent I'm not sure any other NBA player matches. He is the duality of man in basketball form. A real hard-scratching presence on the court.
If he embraces this change of scenery and unlocks a more harmonious relationship with Devin Booker in the Suns backcourt, there is real upside here. We should never count out the possibility of a star leap for a 23-year-old with Green's tools. But if Green falls back into bad habits, man, there's not much going for the Suns this season.
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
Look, man. I don't really know what to say here. Joel Embiid has not yet resumed basketball activities after his latest knee procedure. He appeared in just 19 games last season, looked like a shell of himself, and suffered through constant swelling in his knee. It's starting to feel like Embiid may never put another full season together, at least not at the level we're accustomed to seeing from the former MVP.
And yet, the Philadelphia 76ers are depending heavily upon Embiid to get back into shape and carry this team forward. Daryl Morey has amassed an exciting young core between Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain and VJ Edgecombe, but it's hard to turn the page on this iteration of the Sixers when Embiid and Paul George are taking up over $100 million annually. The youth movement is fun, but it won't anywhere meaningful if Philly's veteran core can't get into gear.
The East is wide open this season. Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton are hurt, which means Boston and Indiana are on hiatus. The Knicks just fired their coach. The Cavs never seem to get over the hump. The door is open. When we last saw him at full strength, Embiid was arguably the best player in the world. He was well on his way to a second-straight MVP award before his knee imploded.
If Embiid is healthy this season — or even for the second half of this season — which is a huge if, maybe even a pointless hypothetical... the Sixers are maybe the favorites to win the East? Like, Cleveland has never been able to slow him down, the Knicks are vulnerable with KAT in the middle, Orlando still has questions to answer offensively. The door is OPEN. Can Embiid walk through it? Probably not. But also, never say never.