It’s preseason, a time for boundless optimism about the upcoming NBA season. Everyone’s in the best shape of their lives, this vibe is immaculate, and this year is going to be different (unless you’re the Thunder, in which case it’s going to be pretty much the same as last year).
But we know that’s not how it goes. There are always vulnerable spots in the armor, banana peels waiting to slip teams up. And oftentimes, there are fatal flaws that spell the downfall of their season.
For this exercise, I’m going to let you know what the fatal flaw is with every contending team so you know what that team needs to make sure they improve on as the year goes on. And to challenge myself, we’re turning the injury sliders off. It’s a cop out to say injuries are a team’s fatal flaws; major or widespread injuries are fatal to every sports team.
With that, here’s the fatal flaw for every contender this season.
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Oklahoma City Thunder: Rebounding? I guess?
You have to look long and hard to find any weaknesses in OKC. Offense? Nope, they were second last season, and second in half-court. Defense? Certainly not; they were literally elite everywhere, including in the paint, despite missing both their centers for a time and being a perimeter-oriented defense.
But there is one little crack. The Thunder ranked 21st in opponent offensive rebound rate last season and gave up the seventh-most second-chance points per game of any team in the league.
Given the sheer number of misses they create, that’s partially to be expected.
But with so many teams going to a double-big lineup like Houston with Steven Adams and Alperen Şengün, the Knicks with Mitchell Robinson and Karl-Anthony Towns, and even the Nuggets have talked about playing Nikola Jokić with Jonas Valanciũnas, there will be bigger lineups this season.
The trick is actually playing those lineups against OKC. Did you know that Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert had a plus-7.7 net rating against OKC in their playoff series? They won their minutes in a series where the Wolves got trounced in five games.
Teams struggle to play big against OKC and wind up playing small against them. But if the book gets out, smacking the glass and being more physical could give them problems.
Houston Rockets: Ball-handling
The Fred VanVleet injury is the kind that barely registers for casual fans but causes huge ripples among the league-pass faithful. FVV was the Rockets’ best experienced ball-handler. Aaron Holiday is the only other player with those credentials.
Amen Thompson is going to be a phenomenal player, but it takes point guards between four and six years to really learn the position, and this will be Thompson’s first as the lead ball-handler. Reed Sheppard is also being tasked with those duties after barely playing in the league last year.
Preseason has revealed they have a turnover issue, which is exacerbated in the two-big lineups. Kevin Durant is Kevin Durant, but they need someone to settle things down and keep the offense organized.
Denver Nuggets: Defensive containment
The Nuggets primarily play a pick-and-roll coverage, with Jokić at the level of the screen. The goal is to contain the ball handler and force him to pass the ball. However, if you fail to do so, the guard has numerous options. Go too wide, and the guard can split the coverage, and it’s a jailbreak. If you leave the pocket open, he can pass to the short roll big, and then it’s four-on-three.
The Nuggets have problems with both of those, which means their weakside players have to help down to protect the rim ... which leaves the corner 3 open.
Denver does not make teams pick and choose what to take, they give up too much. They need much better coverage from new addition Cam Johnson in those rotation positions and better containment on the perimeter.
Oh, and also, their transition defense is a musty tire, on fire, rolling down a hill into a hazmat zone.
Los Angeles Clippers: Imbalance
Let’s assume that the Aspiration scandal with Kawhi Leonard has no repercussions until next offseason.
Their problem is that last year, the Clippers were an elite defensive team with a few players who held up their offense. They added a lot of offensively helpful role players in the offseason, but those players will take away from some of that defensive identity.
It’s good to have versatility, but finding ways to mix and match players like Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr. with new additions like Bradley Beal and Chris Paul could be a struggle. If they take away from their strength, they might wind up more balanced but masters of no area of the game.
Los Angeles Lakers: Defensive stability
Deandre Ayton is not known as an elite rim protector. Marcus Smart is past his prime with a major injury history now. They have very little depth and are top-heavy with defensively limited players in Austin Reaves (physicality) and LeBron James (age).
The Lakers’ defense got better, somehow, late season after the Anthony Davis trade, then cratered in the playoffs.
If the bottom falls out on that end, no amount of Luka magic will be enough.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Turnovers
The Wolves have a high-volume 3-point attack and a ferocious, insatiable defense, so their floor is very high. However, over the last two seasons, they’ve ranked in the bottom 12 in turnover rate. Those turnovers not only mean that their offense can’t get separation despite how good their defense is, but they also lead to easier transition opportunities, which undercut their defense.
If the Wolves can keep you in front of them, they are a dominant team, the kind that made the Western Conference Finals two years in a row. But if you can apply ball pressure, their offense can undermine their whole gameplan.
Cleveland Cavaliers: 1-on-1 defense
The Cavs have a pretty-good-to-almost-great defense as a five-man group. They are active at screens with crowding ballhandlers and showing bodies. They recover well, as they were one of the best teams defending spot-ups last season. They are built to help, rotate, and recover.
But when the time calls for individual isolation defense, they struggle. You saw this in the Pacers series when not just Tyrese Haliburton but Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, and Benedict Mathurin were able to get them on an island and then stress them into having to help too far which opened things up.
The Cavs must shore up their one-on-one defense to avoid sending too much help and staying home, or their dominant shot profile advantage will diminish. Playing more De’Andre Hunter this season should help, as will the addition of Lonzo Ball, but it’s a big concern area for the league’s No.1 offense.
New York Knicks: They can't defend with their two best players together
The Knicks can defend with Karl-Anthony Towns on the floor without Jalen Brunson.
They can defend with Brunson on the floor with Wingstop (OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges) without Towns.
They cannot defend with those two together, giving up a 117.3 defensive rating with their two best players on the floor together last season.
(And before you ask, it got worse with Mitchell Robinson on-court, giving up a 120.6 defensive rating with the three last season, including the playoffs.)
New York is trying to find balance on a team that may not be capable of it. The Knicks’ run in 2024 was built on Brunson being a one-man isocentric army and the super-hustle Thibs Knicks outworking everyone on defense. But the addition of Towns throws that off.
They can’t maximize their offense without Brunson and Towns. They can’t maximize their defense with Towns and Brunson.
They can win some minutes with offense and some with defense, which will probably work a lot of the regular season time, but against elite squads, it could be bad.
Orlando Magic: Putting the round thing through the circle with the little net on it
Just make a shot. Like, one. Just make one shot, please, for the Love of God.
The addition of Desmond Bane should help tremendously. Getting healthy to have more continuity will help. They brought in God Shamgod from Dallas to remodel the offense. These things could be enough.
But by the Basketball Gods, they actually have to shoot a little. This team was the worst 3-pointing team, by a significant margin, in a league dominated by 3-point shooting. This has to improve.
The Magic don’t need to be an elite offense, but they have to elevate this offense to between 17th and 8th league-wide, or they simply won’t have enough firepower.
Philadelphia 76ers: Do you really need to ask?
The roster is actually really deep and talented. They have guys like Quentin Grimes, Jared McCain, and Adem Bona, young, hungry guys alongside Tyrese Maxey, who gets better every year.
But you can’t build habits or synergy without your best players, and no one knows when or how much Paul George and Embiid will play. Both players can shore up their problems on both sides. They have fatal flaws, but we can’t tell what they are because we don’t have any idea if this team will ever be whole.
Detroit Pistons: Firepower
The Pistons were great last year because of a balanced attack buoyed by unreal shooting from Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. They lost both of those players (though Beasley could be re-signed if cleared of wrongdoing by the NBA).
While they replaced them with solid role players in Caris LeVert and Duncan Robinson, if they can’t duplicate the scoring output of less versatile but more efficient role players, it could be a problem and if the offense takes a step back, they’re not elite at anything to make up for it.