Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The Warriors face a critical decision this offseason after a misstep in the 2021 draft that left them with limited returns for a top-10 pick.
- One promising path forward involves targeting a young, versatile forward from the Orlando Magic who could address multiple roster needs immediately.
- The key is securing a player still on the rise, not one past their prime, to sustain championship contention in the present rather than the distant future.
The Golden State Warriors made a catastrophic mistake in the 2021 NBA Draft, gambling on upside and taking Jonathan Kuminga with the No. 7 pick. But they have a chance to finally fix it this offseason.
Kuminga was productive at points in his five seasons, but never really showed star-level potential, was never trusted to perform in key moments and bounced in and out of the rotation, souring a relationship that cast a long shadow over the team the past two years. After dragging their feet and looking for a better deal, they shipped him to the Hawks at the trade deadline along with Buddy Hield in exchange for Kristaps Porziņģis.
Porziņģis will be a free agent which means five years on, cap space is likely to be all the Warriors have to show for a top-10 pick. But it gets even worse when you consider the players who were taken after Kuminga, all of whom were available to the Warriors — Franz Wagner (No. 8), Davion Mitchell (No. 9), Alperen Şengün (No. 16), Trey Murphy III (No. 17) and Jalen Johnson (No. 20).
The Warriors would be infinitely better off with any of those players on the roster right now. And there's a chance Franz Wagner could actually be available this summer, and the Warriors could fix the mistake they made five years ago.
How the Warriors can land Franz Wagner
The Orlando Magic collapsed in the first-round of the playoffs and the offensive fit between Paolo Banchero and Wagner continues to be a huge issue. If Orlando decided to splitting up their young forwards, which is probably still a longshot, both would draw plenty of interest. They've both been productive but Wagner probably fits better as a high-level complementary piece, where Banchero's offensive skill set could be something to build around.
The Warriors don't have anything that's going to intrest the Magic in a straight-up deal but if they loop in a third team you can build a few different variations that seem at least somewhat plausible appealing to everyone. For example:
Here, the Warriors route Draymond Green to Miami, along with a pair of protected first round picks, and Moses Moody to the Magic. The Heat send Tyler Herro to Orlando and get back Anthony Black. You could also work out a variation with the Raptors in place of the Heat, Brandon Ingram going to the Magic and the two picks being split — one to Orlando one to Toronto. Or the Trail Blazers, with Jerami Grant standing in for Herro/Ingram.
Look, these may all be wildly unlikely. They depend on Draymond Green being willing to opt-in for a trade, a third team being willing to take him, Anthony Black and a pick for a piece that the Magic believe will really fix their offensive issues and work long-term next to Banchero. Maybe Orlando decides Banchero is the one to replace and they keep Wagner.
How Franz Wagner (or someone like him) could help the Warriors
But the strategy here is what matters most for the Warriors. Wagner has been an inconsistent shooter but he's an elite defender, can guard multiple positions and averaged 22.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.1 steals per game over the past two seasons. He can act as a connector with star teammates but also initiate the offense and attack mismatches to create scoring opportunities of his own. Most importantly, he's 24 years old and still on the upswing of his career.
The Warriors' most recent big additions — Jimmy Butler, Al Horford, Porziņģis, Dennis Schröder, Kyle Anderson, Buddy Hield — were all experienced veterans. They had established skill sets that fit obvious needs. The gamble wasn't talent or fit, it was durability and consistency. Injuries and regression limited all of them and kept them from giving the Warriors everything they could on paper.
Looking at the players the Warriors have been linked to most often the past few weeks — LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo — is more of the same. A 37-year-old LeBron or 28-year-old Giannis could be a game-changer for the Warriors. But they'll turn 42 and 32 next season.
Targeting younger talent like Franz Wagner isn't about two timelines (he can help them win now!) and isn't even about getting healthier and more athletic (all good things but also Wagner only played 94 games the past two seasons!). It's about getting players who aren't going to fall off a cliff at the end of their age curve, or turn into a pumpkin over night. It's about getting younger, not for the future but for the present.
If the Warriors want to win another title, they have to gamble on players who are about to peak, not on players who have already peaked, hoping they can recapture some of that magic.
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