Imagine averaging over 20 points for five straight seasons and never coming close to an NBA All-Star game bid. That's Jamal Murray's current predicament, but he may crawl out of that hole after all.
Besides Murray's fantastic play to kick off the year, the ever-changing All-Star game is now positionless, and eight international players are guaranteed to make it. That bodes well for the Canadian, Murray. There are many young players on the rise who I'd consider locks to be named first-time All-Stars as we stand in early December.
Cade Cunningham, Tyler Herro, Evan Mobley, Alperen Şengün, Jalen Williams, and Victor Wembanyama were the six first-time All-Stars last year, and I believe we'll get six again. Here are our picks for this year's first-time All-Stars.
Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets
Key stats: 23.3 PPG, 6.7 APG, 42 3PT%
Though Murray hasn't truly been close to nabbing an All-Star nod before this season, he's still been knocking at the door. His level of consistency alone was enough to float his name in ASG conversations.
Murray has career-best numbers across the board, and he's one of the main reasons the Denver Nuggets are the only team that can really compete with the Oklahoma City Thunder. If he's at this level of shot-making and creating for others paired with the best player in the world, anything is on the table.
It's not a surprise to see Murray level up in this way. He's been an efficient inferno scorer throughout his postseason career multiple times. The knock on Murray was his ability to do it in the regular season. Are you happy folks?
Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
Key stats: 19.6 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 71 TS%
Let's take it out East for probably our biggest surprise. Duren had tools and flashed potential over the years, but this level of sheer dominance makes Detroit a different team.
Duren is too much of a tank for smalls on switches and too nimble of a mover for bigs to stick him on the go. Duren also bulldozes bigs, too; they aren't exempt. His jump as a self-creator has stabilized non-Cade Cunningham Pistons minutes.
The defense has improved, too. Duren is more active and engaged for a hectic Pitons defense. The eye-popping numbers with his efficiency and the role he plays in steering Detroit to a 17-4 start have to be rewarded with some accolade glory.
Austin Reaves, Los Angeles Lakers
Key stats: 28.8 PPG, 6.6 APG. 5.7 RPG
I wouldn't argue if you said Reaves is the most surprising. He's had big games when he had the Lakers keys in the past, but who had him this close to the top of the scorers' leaderboard for this long?
This isn't any Lakers gas, either. Reaves has simply been one of the best guards in basketball, and the Lakers are good enough to warrant two All-Stars.
Every player here so far has come from a winning situation. We value that here, plus individual greatness. Reaves has both. Only 45 percent of Reaves buckets are assisted on (79th %tile). He's been a self-creating monster.
Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers
Key stats: 25.8 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 5.8 APG
Deni was one of the Most Improved candidates heading into the year. He's vindicated every believer he's ever had. The Trailblazers aren't as good as these other squads, but it isn't because of Deni.
Portland is plus-1.6 with Deni on the floor and minus-12.8 when he sits. His blend of driving, shooting, and transition play charges his ASG bid. Deni is leading the league in drives per game. That's an area Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has had a stranglehold on for years. Impressive work, Deni.
The passing pops. Deni makes advanced reads, though that comes with some turnovers. In Deni's defense, he's turning the ball over less this year while ramping up his usage, which is not easy to do.
Norman Powell, Miami Heat
Key stats: 25 PPG, 46 3P%, 66 TS%
Upping your volume while remaining efficient isn't easy, and Norman Powell continues to do it. He honestly should have been an All-Star for the Clippers last year — no need to cry over spoiled milk when you can do it again.
Powell is the leading scorer on a surprise Heat team that's playing with a new flair. He fits right in with his lethal jumpshot and bowling ball driving style. He's never seen a closeout he doesn't want to attack.
The efficiency is marking new territory. Per Basketball-Reference, Powell is the only player with this volume and accuracy from 3. Nobody's walked the waters he's in right now. It's hard to say he'll shoot 46 percent from deep all year, but he's been an elite shooter for a while, and now he should be an All-Star.
Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks
Key stats: 23.2 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 7.3 APG
Please give me more jumbo playmakers; the league never has enough! Jalen Johnson is the new kid on the national scene, and he might be the biggest lock of this whole group. Johnson is on triple-double watch every time he laces up. He's making the Trae Young conversation easy or difficult, depending on who you talk to.
Johnson is a dazzling ball handler for his size, but he never forgets his size. Johnson is a dog's dog on the glass and doesn't play with any finesse when chasing down rebounds. His growth as a passer and shooter aids his ASG campaign.
The Hawks have been a good team with him at the driving wheel (11-6, No. 7 defense). If this remains steady, he's going to lead them into the playoffs and truly burst onto the scene when it's winning time. He's that good.