In mid-June, the Memphis Grizzlies shocked the basketball world with a blockbuster trade more than a week before the 2025 NBA Draft arrived. The Grizzlies elected to send Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic in exchange for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony, and a bevy of first round picks, perhaps signaling a changing of the guard in Memphis.
To put it plainly, that trade absolutely made the Grizzlies worse for the 2025-26 season. Bane is one of the best shooting guards in the NBA and was one of the top three players on the Memphis roster, along with Jaren Jackson Jr. and Ja Morant. For the Grizzlies, the deal was future-facing, removing Bane's contract from the books and prioritizing draft capital in a trade that some identified as a win for Memphis from an overall value standpoint.
From there, the Grizzlies made a big bet on Cedric Coward with a draft-day trade and also made a real bet on Ty Jerome as the team's primary addition in free agency. As such, it was a relatively quiet summer for the Grizzlies after the Bane trade, and that has led to Memphis being (wildly) overlooked in the general market.
The underlying data tells an interesting story
As noted above, the loss of Bane does cost Memphis in the short term, even while acknowledging that he was not removed in a vacuum. Caldwell-Pope is a downgrade from Bane, but he does represent a rotation-level shooting guard for the Grizzlies, and Jerome is coming off a fantastic season in which he finished third in the NBA Sixth Man of the Year voting after averaging 12.5 points per game on 64.3 percent true shooting for the Cavaliers. In fact, Jerome produced those numbers in only 19.9 minutes per game, and his per-36 minute averages of 22.7 points, 6.1 assists, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.0 steals tell a potentially impactful story.
At the very least, Jerome and Caldwell-Pope should not be ignored as ready-made contributors, and Memphis also brings back Jaylen Wells. Wells was arguably the best rookie in the NBA on a per-minute basis last season, and the Memphis supporting cast of Wells, Jerome, Caldwell-Pope, Scotty Pippen Jr., John Konchar, Santi Aldama, GG Jackson, Zach Edey, Brandon Clarke, and Jock Landale is quite solid in nature.
Of course, the lead duo of Jackson Jr. and Morant remains in place, which provides a bit of upside for Memphis. Jackson Jr. put together an All-Star season in 2024-25, appearing in 74 games and providing excellent two-way play. Realistically, the Grizzlies can't expect too much more from Jackson Jr., but a repeat of last season would be welcome. Morant played in only 50 games, and his durability is certainly a concern. However, Memphis is set up well to withstand any absences, particularly with Jerome and Pippen Jr. in the mix, and Morant still brings real upside to the table.
The Grizzlies were underrated LAST season
The Grizzlies won 48 games a year ago. That is worth remembering, especially because Memphis wavered enough to fire head coach Taylor Jenkins during the 2024-25 campaign. It was obviously a rocky campaign overall, but Memphis still made the playoffs and performed at a very strong overall level. In fact, the folks at Cleaning The Glass indicate that the Grizzlies actually had an adjusted point differential that was indicative of a 53-win team, rather than a 48-win squad.
Of course, those numbers are not written in stone, but they are an indicator that Memphis had a lot go wrong last season... and the Grizzlies still won 48 games. Even if you factor in the downgrade from Bane to the likes of Jerome and Caldwell-Pope, it is hard to see the Grizzlies falling completely out of the playoff picture. To that end, Memphis is currently projected for 40.5 or 41.5 wins in the late August betting market, and it is hard to see a 7 or 8-win drop, much less the requisite 12 or 13-win plunge when taking last year's underlying data into account.
Will the Grizzlies be awesome this season? Probably not. Will they be a .500 team or worse? Also, probably not. Injury-related variance is always a factor in the NBA but, on paper, it is difficult to see why the Grizzlies would backslide enough to get them into the current projection range.