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NBA Draft prospect stock up, stock down after first weekend of March Madness

Plenty of impressive (and not-so-impressive) prospect performances through the first weekend of March Madness could shape June's NBA Draft.
UCLA v UCONN
UCLA v UCONN | Emilee Chinn/GettyImages

We are through two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, and while we didn't get the classic Cinderella run so many fans yearn for, there was plenty of great basketball on display. There was no shortage of surprising outcomes either, with No. 11 Texas plowing through No. 3 Gonzaga and No. 9 Iowa knocking off the defending champs from Florida.

The NBA Draft landscape really begins to solidify around this time of year. There are still months of speculation ahead. The Combine and pre-draft workouts will inform teams' decision-making, too. But there's nothing more valuable than performing at a high level in a game with stakes, and that's what March Madness is all about. Here are a few prospects who helped their stock — and a few potentially trending in the wrong direction:

Stock down: Malik Reneau, Miami FL

Malik Reneau, Miami Hurricanes
Malik Reneau, Miami Hurricanes | Jeff Le-Imagn Images

Malik Reneau, a fourth-year transfer from Indiana, became the heart and soul of the Hurricanes this season, earning first team All-ACC honors. An impressive senior campaign has earned him legitimate second round buzz, and it's not like he was unproductive in Miami's two tournament games. In Sunday's 79-69 loss to Purdue, however, his primary weaknesses as a prospect were laid bare.

Reneau, a career 30.3 percent 3-point shooter on low volume, went 0-of-3 from deep. He also committed seven turnovers to three assists. For all his tricks in the post, Reneau plays a somewhat dated style of basketball. It does not help that vision often collapses in a crowd. Purdue is not a team that generates a ton of turnovers normally. Reneau made a few too many avoidable errors down the stretch in a game where Miami led at halftime.

Stock up: David Mirkovic, Illinois

David Mirkovic, Illinois Fighting Illini
David Mirkovic, Illinois Fighting Illini | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Granted it came against weaker competition, but David Mirkovic's 29-point, 17-rebound outing against Penn in Illinois' 105-70 first round victory ranks among the best individual performances from last weekend. He was much quieter against VCU in the second round, but still, the 20-year-old freshman from Montenegro made his case to NBA scouts.

Mirkovic will need to answer significant questions about his defensive projection at the next level, but it's rare to find 6-foot-9, 250-pound forwards with his intersection of skill and IQ. Mirkovic is not an NBA athlete at first blush, but he has an NBA brain. He's a legitimate passing hub at the elbow. Illinois will deploy him as a pick-and-roll ball-handler with success. Mirkovic sees the floor, operating with a mix of prodding physicality and savvy finesse that can leave defenders in a bad state. Maybe it works at the next level, maybe it doesn't — but NBA scouts value feel over athleticism more than ever.

Stock down: Nate Ament, Tennessee

Nate Ament, Tennessee Volunteers
Nate Ament, Tennessee Volunteers | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

Nate Ament is still a potential lottery pick, but when 6-foot-10 wings finish below 50 percent of their layups, it's historically not a great sign. Ament keeps hope alive with a smooth, high-release jumper and compelling flashes on defense, but his scoring efficiency has wavered all season long. Tennessee is dancing into the Sweet 16 after impressive wins over Miami OH and Virginia, but Ament went scoreless in 18 minutes against the RedHawks (injury) and did little to revive his stock with 16 points on 4-of-11 shooting and zero assists against the Cavs.

Ament gets to the free throw line — he went 7-of-8 against Virginia and is shooting 79.2 percent on the season — which is probably the greatest signal of potential offensive stardom. He's physical on drives, despite a thin frame. If he can add muscle without sacrificing agility and coordination, perhaps the finishing comes around in the NBA. That said, Ament's inability to turn the corner and consistently gain the upper hand on more athletic defenders is a persistent drawback.

Stock up: Jeremy Fears Jr., Michigan State

Jeremy Fears Jr., Michigan State Spartans
Jeremy Fears Jr., Michigan State Spartans | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Jeremy Fears Jr., the older brother of Pelicans rookie Jeremiah Fears, did his thing in Michigan State's back-to-back wins over the weekend. He struggled with his shot — 5-of-19 across both games — and yet Fears was in total command the whole time, leading the Spartans' devastating transition attack with pinpoint precision as a playmaker. He dropped 11 assists (four TOs) against North Dakota State and a school record 16 assists (five TOs) against Louisville.

Fears will need to improve his shooting at the next level, but it's rare to find a guard with his physicality, motor and intelligence all wrapped into one. He elevates teammates and seldom fails to impact a game in one way or another. He's practically the inverse of his younger brother in terms of strengths and weaknesses, and the depth of this guard class could force Fears to consider a return to school. But he's special.

Stock down: Darryn Peterson, Kansas

Darryn Peterson, Kansas Jayhawks
Darryn Peterson, Kansas Jayhawks | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Darryn Peterson was actually healthy for Kansas' stretch run, an important development in its own right. And while no, you should not "fade" Peterson and have any real skepticism about him as a top-3 prospect, it's worth pointing out the flawed nature of this season and how those flaws manifested in Kansas' abbreviated March Madness run.

Peterson went 3-of-10 inside the arc against the vaunted St. John's defense. He dished out one assist — just one — across 73 minutes of NCAA Tournament play. The defensive range and instincts are awesome, he's a gifted shot-maker, and methinks the burst will gradually return once he's further removed from these injuries. But Peterson's season was demonstrably less complete, less dominant, than his peers atop this draft class. That's really no fault of his own, but guards who don't pressure the rim or facilitate much at all, even in a bad team context, merit a bit more skpeticism.

Stock up: Tarris Reed Jr. and Alex Karaban, UConn

Alex Karaban, Tarris Reed Jr., UConn Huskies
Alex Karaban, Tarris Reed Jr., UConn Huskies | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Tarris Reed Jr. put up 31 points on 12-of-15 shooting with 27 rebounds and three assists in UConn's opening round win over Furman — a closer-than-expected, grind-it-out affair. He ceded ground to Alex Karaban in round two, as the senior forward dropped 27 points with five made 3s against UCLA (with 22 points and four made 3s against Furman, too).

UConn's seniors have been excellent all season, and both should have fans at the next level. Karaban has been on NBA radars for years. Some might say for too long. He's not a great athlete, but size, shooting and IQ typically play at the next level. Karaban understands his role and excels within it. Reed is a bowling-ball athlete who can plow through ill-equipped defenders on the block, facilitate on the short roll and dominate the glass. Both are aided by UConn's pro-like scheme. Scouts are circling the Huskies on their watch calendars at this point.

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