The Oklahoma City Thunder lost five times since the middle of December, and they still have an enormous lead on every other team for the best record in the league. They may have fallen off their "best team ever" pace, but we can still pencil in the defending champs as a legit contender.
After that, it gets a bit murky.
What do we make of the Lakers, who are 22-11 but have been outscored across the entire season? How about the Denver Nuggets, who hold the No. 4 seed in the west but are without Nikola Jokić for at least a few more weeks and have been disastrously bad in close games even when he was healthy? What about the Pistons, who have the best record in the East but are among the worst shooting teams in the league from both the 3-point and free throw lines?
Wins and losses help us identify the good and bad teams, but we have to dig a bit deeper to get at the true contenders. Here are our most up-to-date power rankings, along with 13 teams with championship aspirations, divided into tiers of legitimacy.
NBA Power Rankings, Week 11
TEAM | RECORD | LAST WEEK |
|---|---|---|
1. Oklahoma City Thunder | 30-6 | 1 |
2. Boston Celtics | 22-12 | 5 |
3. Houston Rockets | 21-11 | 7 |
4. San Antonio Spurs | 25-10 | 2 |
5. Detroit Pistons | 26-9 | 3 |
6. New York Knicks | 23-12 | 4 |
7. Denver Nuggets | 23-12 | 6 |
8. Minnesota Timberwolves | 23-13 | 8 |
9. Miami Heat | 20-16 | 10 |
10. Cleveland Cavaliers | 20-17 | 17 |
11. Phoenix Suns | 21-14 | 11 |
12. Golden State Warriors | 19-17 | 9 |
13. Orlando Magic | 20-16 | 12 |
14. Philadelphia 76ers | 19-14 | 16 |
15. Los Angeles Lakers | 22-11 | 13 |
16. Toronto Raptors | 21-15 | 14 |
17. Los Angeles Clippers | 12-22 | 18 |
18. Atlanta Hawks | 17-20 | 24 |
19. Portland Trail Blazers | 16-20 | 19 |
20. Memphis Grizzlies | 15-20 | 15 |
21. Milwaukee Bucks | 16-20 | 22 |
22. Dallas Mavericks | 13-23 | 21 |
23. Charlotte Hornets | 12-23 | 25 |
24. Chicago Bulls | 17-18 | 23 |
25. Brooklyn Nets | 11-12 | 20 |
26. Utah Jazz | 12-22 | 26 |
27. New Orleans Pelicans | 8-29 | 27 |
28. Indiana Pacers | 6-30 | 29 |
29. Sacramento Kings | 8-28 | 28 |
30. Washington Wizards | 9-25 | 30 |
The championship pretenders: Lakers, Heat, Magic, Raptors, 76ers
These teams will be in the conversation, but all have a fatal flaw. The Lakers are catastrophically bad on defense, and have a negative point differential on the season. They're an unsustainably perfect 12-0 in close games so far this season, and even with LeBron and Luka Dončić are going to come back to earth. The Magic, Heat and Raptors all have strong defenses but can't score enough. The 76ers need Joel Embiid to be healthy. Any of these teams could win a playoff series, but it will take a lot of luck or a major trade to do more than that.
The championship contenders (Tier 3): Spurs, Knicks, Nuggets, Pistons, Timberwolves
The Timberwolves, Pistons and Spurs are all reasonably balanced and in the top-nine in both offensive and defensive efficiency. But none are really elite enough at either end to compensate if a superior opponent knocks them out of balance in a playoff series. The Knicks and Nuggets are both elite offenses with big question marks at the other end.
If Nikola Jokić was fully healthy, you could slide the Nuggets to Tier 2 but until he's back and can prove he won't be limited they're staying here. You could make an argument that the Knicks have much better defensive talent than defensive results, and that could click in at some point. But we still need to see it.
The championship contenders (Tier 2): Rocket, Celtics
The Rockets are currently fifth in the Western Conference, while the Celtics are third in the East, still a half-game behind the Knicks. But everything besides their win-loss record says these two teams are a cut above.
They rank second and third, respectively, in net rating, with a big gap between the Celtics and the fourth-place Nuggets. The Rockets are elite at both ends — third in offensive efficiency and sixth in defensive efficiency — with two-way depth and the matchup-busting skills of Alperen Şenün and Kevin Durant to carry them in a tough playoff matchup.
The Celtics started slow, falling to 5-7 in mid-November. Since then, they're 17-5 and are the only team, along with the Thunder, who have a net rating of plus-10 or greater over that stretch. They're merely an average defense, but have one of the best offenses in the league, with Jaylen Brown averaging 30.1 points on a career-best 60.2 true shooting percentage. They could use another defensive-minded big man, but they have the shooting, depth and experience to carry this dominance deep into the playoffs.
The championship contenders (Tier 1): Thunder
The Thunder have shown they're not unbeatable, going 6-5 in their last 11 games — losing to the Suns, Timberwolves and Spurs ... three times. But they're still in a tier all by themselves.
Even with this bumpy stretch, their record and scoring margin have them on pace to be one of the best regular season teams in NBA history. Their SRS (strength-of-schedule adjusted margin of victory) — plus-13.24 — is currently better than both the 72-win Bulls and the 73-win Warriors ... and every other team in NBA history.
They might not win it all, but at this point in the season, every numeric indicator says they're the one true contender.