Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić appeared to be heading for his fourth career NBA MVP award until he suffered a hyperextended left knee that's expected to sideline him for at least four weeks. If he winds up missing more than 17 games, he'll become automatically ineligible to win MVP, or even be named to an All-NBA team this year.
Jokić would be out for 15 games if he misses exactly four weeks. If the Nuggets keep him out through the All-Star break, he'd be sidelined for 24 games. Either way, his injury just blew the MVP race wide open.
In Jokić's absence, one player has emerged as a clear MVP favorite, but the 65-game requirement is narrowing the pool of potential candidates. Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo has already missed 14 games, while San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama has missed 13 games and counting. We're assuming both will eventually become ineligible to be considered for the award, although either would have a real case if they do clear the 65-game market.
With the 65-game requirement in mind, these are the leading candidates to be named 2025-26 NBA MVP if Jokić is out of the running.
6. Jaylen Brown, SF, Boston Celtics
With Jayson Tatum sidelined by a torn Achilles, Jaylen Brown has become the Boston Celtics' clear No. 1 option this season. And he's thriving in that role.
Brown is averaging career highs in points (29.5), assists (5.0) and overall shooting percentage (50.3) despite playing only 33.8 minutes per game. He's also chipping in 6.4 rebounds, 2.0 three-pointers, 1.1 steals and 0.5 blocks per game for good measure. Brown is one of only three players averaging at least 29 points, six rebounds and five assists this season, joining Jokić and Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Dončić.
Just as importantly, the Celtics are currently third in the Eastern Conference. They're sitting only 3.5 games behind the top-seeded Detroit Pistons and 1.5 games behind the New York Knicks. It's rare for an MVP to come from a team outside of the top three in its conference, but the Celtics are two games clear of the fourth-seeded Toronto Raptors for now.
If Brown continues putting up career-best numbers while helping the Celtics to overachieve sans Tatum, he'd be one of the top MVP dark horses on the board.
5. Tyrese Maxey, PG, Philadelphia 76ers
Brown isn't the only Atlantic Division star who's putting up career-best numbers this season: Tyrese Maxey is also putting the 76ers on his back in a similar fashion to how Joel Embiid has for most of his career.
Maxey is averaging a career-best 30.9 points, 7.2 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 3.7 three-pointers in a league-leading 39.9 minutes per game. He's also shooting a crisp 47.0 percent overall, 39.6 percent from deep and a career-high 88.9 percent from the free-throw line (on a career-high 6.6 attempts per game). Maxey and Dončić are the only two players this season averaging at least 30 points, seven assists and four rebounds per game.
The Sixers haven't been quite as impressive as the Celtics, but they're tied for fifth in the East at 18-14. Only a half-game separates them from the eighth-seeded Orlando Magic, although they have the 10th-easiest remaining strength of schedule. They'd likely need to finish in the top four of the East to give Maxey any chance at winning MVP.
Maxey's biggest issue might be his supporting cast. Embiid has been rounding back into his MVP-caliber form as of late, while VJ Edgecombe and Paul George both have the potential to take games over as well. If any of them alleviate the immense burden that's been placed on Maxey thus far this season, that downtick in production could jeopardize his MVP case.
4. Jalen Brunson, PG, New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson finished fifth in MVP voting in 2023-24 and 10th last season. He appears to be headed for his third straight top-10 finish this year.
Brunson is averaging a career-high 29.4 points and 3.1 three-pointers to go with 6.6 assists, 3.3 rebounds and 0.8 steals in 35.5 minutes per game. He's also shooting an efficient 47.6 percent overall and 38.7 percent from deep. As a result, he ranks seventh overall in Dunks and Threes' estimated offensive plus/minus, although he's in the 1st percentile leaguewide in estimated defensive plus/minus.
The Knicks are sitting second in the East, and they're only two games behind the Pistons for the top seed. Supplanting Detroit would bolster Brunson's MVP case, particularly if the Knicks run away from the rest of the competition.
Like with Maxey, Brunson's loaded supporting cast might be the biggest knock against him. Between Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart, Brunson doesn't have to do as much heavy lifting on his own as some of the other leading MVP candidates.
3. Cade Cunningham, PG, Detroit Pistons
Cade Cunningham earned his first All-Star and All-NBA nods and finished seventh in the MVP race last season. He's likely headed for a repeat of that this season, if not better.
Cunningham is averaging career highs in points (26.6), assists (9.7) and rebounds (6.3) per game while shooting 46.5 percent overall. He's also drilling a career-high 6.0 free-throw attempts per night. That has him 10th leaguewide in overall estimated plus/minus, according to Dunks and Threes.
Cunningham was seventh in the MVP race last year even though his Pistons finished sixth in the Eastern Conference. Near the midway point of this season, they're sitting first in the East despite largely running back the same core from last year. The offseason addition of Duncan Robinson has added some much-needed spacing to Detroit's starting lineup, which has given Cunningham more room to operate both as a scorer and a playmaker.
Cunningham and Jokić are the only two players averaging at least 29 points, nine assists and six rebounds this season. If he continues putting up career-best numbers and the Pistons finish as the No. 1 seed in the East, he should be headed for a top-five MVP finish at worst.
2. Luka Dončić, PG, Los Angeles Lakers
In his first full season as a Laker, Dončić is making former Dallas Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison look like even more of a donkey for trading him last year.
The now-svelte Dončić is averaging a league-leading 33.5 points to go with 8.7 assists, 8.2 rebounds, 3.4 three-pointers and 1.5 steals per game. He's sixth leaguewide in offensive estimated plus/minus and eighth in overall estimated plus/minus. Dončić and Jokić are the only two players averaging at least 25 points, eight rebounds and eight assists per game this season, and Dončić is the only one averaging 30-8-8.
The Lakers have been mired in a recent swoon, dropping four of their past five games before their 128-121 win over the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday, but they're still fifth in the Western Conference at 21-11. If the Nuggets go into freefall in Jokić's absence, L.A. should have a clear path to a top-four seed in the West.
With Austin Reaves sidelined at least for the next few weeks due to a calf strain, Dončić should have an opportunity to continue putting up huge numbers. The biggest threat to his MVP candidacy may be the games-played requirement, as Dončić has already missed nine this season. He can miss no more than eight of the Lakers' final 50 games this season or he'll become ineligible for both MVP and the All-NBA teams.
1. Shai Gilgeous Alexander, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the league's reigning MVP, and Jokić's injury clears the way for him to win his second straight.
Last season, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged a league-high 32.7 points to go with 6.4 assists, 5.0 rebounds, 2.1 threes and 1.7 steals while shooting 51.9 percent overall and 37.5 percent from deep. This year, he's basically matching that production — he's averaging 32.1 points, 6.4 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 2.1 threes and 1.6 steals — while shooting far more efficiently from the field (56.3 percent) and from downtown (42.0 percent).
Although the Thunder are no longer on pace for an NBA-record 74 wins, they still have a 4.5-game lead over any other team in the league with their 30-5 record. Their 14.2 net rating would be the best in league history if it holds across the rest of the season, and they have the NBA's best defense by a country mile.
If the Thunder cruise to the best record in the NBA and SGA effectively replicates the production from his 2024-25 MVP campaign while shooting even more efficiently, it'll be tough for anyone to supplant him in the MVP race.