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Ranking each remaining first-round NBA Playoffs series by comeback odds

As the first round of the 2026 Playoffs comes to a close, we have five teams trying to launch a 3-2/3-1 comeback. Who has the best chance?
Los Angeles Lakers v Houston Rockets - Game Three
Los Angeles Lakers v Houston Rockets - Game Three | Kenneth Richmond/GettyImages

Key Points

Bullet point summary by AI

  • The 2026 NBA Playoffs are nearing their first-round conclusion, with five teams still fighting to extend their seasons despite daunting series deficits.
  • Each remaining series features teams battling from 3-1 or 3-2 holes, with historical comebacks and current team dynamics playing critical roles.
  • The rankings reveal which franchises have the structural advantages, offensive firepower, and defensive adjustments necessary to defy expectations and advance.

The first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs is nearly complete, and the playing field is almost consolidated from 16 to eight teams. However, there are a few franchises that just aren't ready to begin their offseason hibernation.

As it stands, five teams are trying to comeback from a 3-1 or 3-2 series deficit. Which of these teams is the most likely to do it? As we tend to do here at FanSided, we ranked those groups to answer this question.

5. Houston Rockets

No team in NBA history has ever comeback from a 3-0 deficit hole in a best-of-seven series, and I highly doubt the discombobulated Houston Rockets are going to be the first ones to do it. They let a Los Angeles Lakers team missing their two best players win three straight games, authored an all-time late-game choke job in one of those losses, and have been without Kevin Durant for most of the series. But hey, at least they got through step one: winning Game 4 and forcing the series back to Los Angeles.

4. Philadelphia 76ers

Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid
Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid | David Butler II-Imagn Images

I'm going to be honest, everyone is kind of wondering how and why the Philadelphia 76ers are still lingering around with the Boston Celtics. After getting Jayson Tatum back, the Celtics are the big kahuna out East, while the 76ers have been largely unimpressive all year. Yet, here we are getting ready to play a Game 6 on Thursday. I still think the 76ers are on a fool's errand (but less of one than what the Rockets' are on) and the Celtics are in firm control of this series, but when you have the combined shot-making of Tyrese Maxey, Paul George, Joel Embiid, and VJ Edgecombe, you never really know what could happen.

3. Detroit Pistons

The Detroit Pistons are going to have become the 14th team in NBA history to comeback from a 3-1 deficit to avoid a dishonorable first round discharge. The problem is (and why they aren't ranked any higher) that the issue's plaguing them aren't the kind you can fix in the middle of a series. As we outlined in a recent post, the Orlando Magic just have more capable two-way players than they do. However, given their status as the East's best regular season team, we couldn't put them any lower than this.

2. Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta Hawks guard CJ McCollum
Atlanta Hawks guard CJ McCollum | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Hawks seemed to have control of the series through three games until the New York Knicks remembered they were the superior team and slipped the rug from under them. Now, the Hawks find themselves in a 3-2 jam with no margin for learning lessons. The fact that the Knicks have won the last two games by a combined 45 points tells me that they have figured out a winning formula (throwing more bodies at CJ McCollum, keying in on their transition defense, and playing offense more through Karl-Anthony Towns). Still, the Hawks have less games to win than the Pistons and are a better team than the 76ers or Rockets. So, this placement made the most sense.

1. Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets would be dead in the water if Angel of Death had not kissed the Minnesota Timberwolves roster. Game 5 was the first time the Nuggets actually looked like they could score on the Timberwolves' stifling defense, surpassing the 120 points threshold for the first time this series. Don't get me wrong, the Timberwolves have just enough to win one of two games. But without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo, the door is certainly open for the Nuggets to save themselves from an offseason filled with difficult questions.

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