Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks are trending toward a breakup. While Giannis recently held a meeting with teammates to galvanize the troops, per Chris Haynes, he also told them he "can't control" what happens — a not-so-subtle nod to reports that him (and his agent) are discussing a potential departure with the Bucks front office.
You can never say a trade is inevitable when it involves a star of Antetokounmpo's caliber, but the opportunity to capitalize on a strong 2026 draft class could be all the incentive the Bucks need. This roster is practically begging to tank, especially with Giannis sidelined for the next 2-to-4 weeks because of a calf strain.
Rich Paul has a hunch on where Giannis could — or should — end up
NBA Superagent Rich Paul joined the chorus of Giannis trade speculation this week. Of course, it merits mention that Paul has certain biases and ulterior motives as an NBA agent. But he's also more willing to wield his power and plant seeds in broad daylight than your average, run-of-the-mill, budget-rate propagandist.
So, when he directly mentions a client as the ideal target for Milwaukee in the upcoming Giannis sweepstakes, it's probably worth taking a moment to consider it.
That is precisely what Paul did, noting that if he were the Bucks, he'd target Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson — a Klutch Sports client and a Milwaukee native. Now, if I were a Hawks fan, I'd be a bit unnerved by my best player's agent tossing out trade hypotheticals while he's still under contract through 2030. But, at the same time, it's hard not to... agree.
Rich Paul says the Bucks should ask for his client Jalen Johnson in a Giannis trade
— Fullcourtpass (@Fullcourtpass) December 9, 2025
“If I’m the Bucks, I’m looking at young player, high character, high talent, high IQ. I’m calling Atlanta. I want Jalen Johnson. He’s from Milwaukee”
(h/t @NBA__Courtside)pic.twitter.com/vVTSXsq8W6
What would a Giannis Antetokounmpo-Jalen Johnson trade entail?
Generally, it's silly to say "I wouldn't trade X YOUNG STAR for Giannis Antetokounmpo," as we're talking about a two-time MVP and a former champ still operating at or near the peak of his powers. That said, Jalen Johnson — on an affordable contract through 2029-30 and still only 23 years old — is a rare exception. The Hawks should be extremely hesitant to trade him.
That said, if push comes to shove, Atlanta probably needs to cave and just... see what happens. Giannis is worth the risk, and moreover, trading Johnson could allow Atlanta to keep its best 2026 NBA Draft asset: the highest first-round pick between New Orleans or Milwaukee.
As of now, Milwaukee has the 12th-best lottery odds. New Orleans is tied for first-best, meaning Atlanta could end up with the No. 1 overall pick rather feasibly. The Bucks get the worst of those picks, meaning if the Bucks tank and the Pelicans don't suddenly skyrocket in the standings, both Atlanta and Milwaukee should end up with premium picks next June.
Why the Bucks say yes
If you look at the purported Giannis trade suitors — New York, San Antonio, Toronto, etc. — it's hard to locate a better asset than Jalen Johnson. Again, Atlanta could flat-out say no. Johnson is on a special path, averaging 23.4 points, 10.5 rebounds and 7.9 assists on .534/.404/.805 splits. Again, he's 23 and under contract for five more years.
Johnson came out of Duke billed as something of a Ben Simmons-lite, but this playmaking leap was unexpected. He has kept Atlanta afloat in Trae Young's absence, able to push the tempo off of rebounds, run inverted pick-and-rolls in the halfcourt, and apply constant rim pressure, all while jacking up his 3-point numbers to career highs. You could argue Ben Simmons was Jalen Johnson-lite the whole time.
This is an incredibly stylistic fit for the Bucks. It's hard not to draw the lines of comparison between Antetokounmpo and Johnson as jumbo playmaking forwards with outlier speed, dexterity and skill for their size. Giannis is more of a bulldozer at the rim, obviously, but Johnson's shooting and perimeter game can add fun wrinkles to Milwaukee's current setup.
The Bucks also add Onyeka Okongwu, a proficient rim-runner and emergent floor spacer who is probably an upgrade over Myles Turner in the long run and a day-one Sixth Man of the Year candidate — maybe even favorite. Meanwhile, the Bucks receive added shooting and supplementary playmaking in Luke Kennard, as well as the least favorable of their own pick and the Pelicans' pick in 2027. Atlanta's 2030 first-round pick, for which Giannis may not even be present, sweetens the pot.
Why the Hawks say yes
The Hawks are taking a calculated gamble here. Giannis is 31, almost a decade older than Johnson, and he recently suffered a non-contact calf injury. Durability has been a trademark of Giannis' for years, but as he gets older, the risks associated with his dependence on burst and agility — at that size — become amplified.
Still, Giannis has averaged a cool 28.9 points, 10.1 rebounds and 6.1 assists on .639/.435/.635 splits in the 17 games he has played so far this season. When right, he is still very much one of the most bankable superstars in the sport, with an established postseason track record that should appeal to an Atlanta team ready to compete. The East is wide open. Giannis immediately solidifies the Hawks as potential frontrunners in the conference.
Some will balk at the idea of reviving Trae Young in Atlanta's short- and long-term plans — a lot of folks would prefer to trade him and maybe the Pelicans' pick, rather than dumping Johnson — but the fit between Giannis and Trae, on paper, is quite intriguing. Young can still warp the geometry of the floor with his pull-up shooting and visionary passing. Giannis' partnership with Damian Lillard didn't quite pan out, but Young is more spry and a far more advantageous creator out of the pick-and-roll. Plus, the Hawks just have better infrastructure around them than Milwaukee did with Dame.
Kristaps Porzingis is the perfect floor-stretching big to pair with Giannis, comfortable firing from several steps behind the 3-point line, but also efficient as a rim-runner and post scorer. That should help diversify and stabilize the offense in the non-Giannis minutes. Meanwhile, Atlanta has a burgeoning 3-and-D wing in Zaccharie Risacher and two of the most stifling defensive guards in the NBA in Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
Atlanta might not satisfy Giannis' desire for a marquee market a la New York, but it's a huge city with a broad fanbase, for which Giannis can drum up significant engagement. This move also gives Giannis a clear path to winning his second championship, which the Bucks simply do not.