Stephen Curry has been out with a knee injury since January 30. With the Golden State Warriors currently outside of the top eight in the Western Conference, folks have understandably been wondering if keeping Curry out is in everyone's best interest. Nevertheless, the Warriors have made it clear that Steph will be back on the court at some point this season.
“When people ask me about this year, and I’ve been asked this a few times, why don’t you just rest Steph the rest of the year? Well, he’s healthy, we’re competing, that’s what we do. And we want to give ourselves a chance, and like that’s the whole point. The beauty is in the quest, it’s in the work. And when you do fail, it’s hard to get over it,” Steve Kerr said during an appearance on the Tom Tolbert Show.
Tim Kawakami of the San Francisco Standard also noted that Curry might return for the Warriors' next home game on March 25. If Curry does return on this date, he and the Warriors would have 10 games left to make a playoff push. As awesome as it would be to see Curry play more games this season, in the end, focusing on draft positioning would be a better move for the Warriors.
The Warriors bringing back Stephen Curry could hurt their draft positioning
The reality is, the Dubs are locked into a Play-In seed since they're 10.5 games ahead of the No. 11 seed Memphis Grizzlies. However, as we all know, their chances of securing a playoff spot with Curry back in the fold skyrockets. Without Steph, the Warriors are just 10-19, but with him, they're 23-16 on the season.
Beyond this, even at 38, there are very few players you'd rather have in a do-or-die play-in game than Steph.
If the Warriors are "lucky" enough to get into the playoffs, they'd be lining up to lose against the Oklahoma City Thunder or San Antonio Spurs. I respect Kerr's view on wanting to be competitive, and frankly, it's refreshing to hear this mindset. Nevertheless, another first round exit is something that doesn't benefit the Warriors in the slightest.
Yes, it's rare that teams so close to the playoffs make a massive lottery leap. The best-case scenario would be that the Warriors end up with a 2 percent chance to land the No. 1 pick. However, as we all know, it's not impossible; in fact, we just saw the Dallas Mavericks jump up to No. 1 despite boosting just 1.8 percent odds, and in 2024, the Atlanta Hawks had 3 percent odds before landing the top pick.
Furthermore, this year's draft has three No. 1 pick caliber players, with Cameron Boozer, AJ Dybantsa, and Darryn Peterson. Caleb Wilson and Darius Acuff are stellar prospects outside of this elite top three. The Warriors could have up to a 9.4 percent chance to land a top-four pick -- that's far more enticing than the 0.00001 percent chance they have to win a playoff series.
Perhaps the window for building a title contender around Steph has already closed. However, for the Warriors to squeeze the last drop out of this possibility, it would behoove them to get a high pick, whether that be a top-four pick or simply get a lottery pick. A slight jump in the draft order might not seem like a lot, but it could make a difference in the end. Look at how the Mavericks landed Dereck Lively after tanking the end of the 2023 season.
The Warriors could either use this pick to give Curry some more supporting talent or make a big trade, especially for Giannis Antetokounmpo.
I don't want to speak this into existence, but there's also a nightmare scenario where Curry returns and suffers a more serious injury. That has to be at least in the back of the Warriors' minds after Jimmy Butler's ACL injury earlier this season.
Ultimately, all signs point to Curry being back on the floor soon, and only time will tell how much this decision will hurt the Warriors, if at all.