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Victor Wembanyama vs. OG Anunoby and more matchups that will define the NBA Finals

Who defends Wemby? Who defends Jalen Brunson? And which coach makes the right adjustments first?
San Antonio Spurs v New York Knicks
San Antonio Spurs v New York Knicks | Nathaniel S. Butler/GettyImages

Key Points

Bullet point summary by AI

  • The NBA Finals between the Knicks and Spurs will hinge on five critical matchups that could swing the series either way.
  • Each battle — from defensive strategies to coaching tactics — reveals how styles make fights in a best-of-seven format.
  • The outcome may rest on whether one player can overcome a persistent weakness or if a coach can deploy one last unexpected move.

For anyone who has ever paid attention to boxing, you are likely familiar with the adage that "styles makes fights."

Basically, what that means is that the outcome of a duel isn't solely tied to the caliber of the two opponents, but rather, how they match up with one another. Few sports embody this ideal the way that the NBA does, as the best-of-seven format provides a platform for teams to poke at each other's weaknesses.

With this sentiment in mind and the New York Knicks preparing to do battle with the San Antonio Spurs, let's take a look at the five matchup storylines that will ultimately define the 2026 NBA Finals.

1. Victor Wembanyama versus OG Anunoby

Victor Wembanyama has spent the last month and a half making it abundantly clear that he is the best basketball player on the planet. A large part of his value comes from his impact on the defensive side of the ball, but his blend of size, skill, and strength has also made him an unstoppable offensive force.

Wembanyama just completed a series where he averaged 27.3 points per game on a 62 true shooting percentage against the number-one ranked defense in basketball. In theory, the Knicks — an inferior defense — should look more like an appetizer than a main dish to Wembanyama.

However, the Knicks have OG Anunoby, who was recently crowned as the unofficial "Wemby Stopper." This notion is also backed up by the data:

Is the Second Team All-Defense forward going to be able to mitigate the effects of Wembanyama for an entire series? The answer may ultimately define the outcome of this series.

2. Stephon Castle on Jalen Brunson

San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle
San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle | Dustin Safranek-Imagn Images

Unlike most of the league, Jalen Brunson had his way with the Spurs during the regular season. In three games, Brunson averaged 26 points per game, leading his team to two victories and one loss that was decided by a single possession.

Stephon Castle is coming off a series where he rattled the back-to-back MVP in a way we've never quite seen before, holding him to a field goal percentage that was 9.8 percentage points below his regular season average (per NBA.com).

Castle didn't get much run against Brunson during the regular season. But according to the tracking data, Brunson went 0-for-4 on shots where he was defended by the sophomore guard (we don't have the data from the NBA Cup game). Is this a sign of things to come? Or will the Southpaw get the better of Castle?

3. Mitchell Robinson against the free throw line

New York Knicks center Mitchell Robinson
New York Knicks center Mitchell Robinson | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

This may sound harsh, but sometimes the truth can be unpleasant. Mitchell Robinson's force and knack for generating second chance opportunties could be the x-factor the Knicks need to pull off an upset.

However, the big fella does have an easily exploitable weakness: the free throw line. To be frank, Robinson makes Shaquille O'Neal look like a marksman. This postseason, Robinson has only hit 30.2 percent of his 43 freebies. The fact that he's going to playing with a pinky injury in his shooting hand only further complicates matters.

So far, the Knicks have been able to survive Robinson's free throw woes, and find clever work arounds (like using Robinson to bait the Cleveland Cavaliers into the bonus in the Eastern Conference Finals), but the Spurs are unlike any opponent they have faced this postseason.

4. Mike Brown versus Mitch Johnson

New York Knicks head coach Mike Brown
New York Knicks head coach Mike Brown | Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Few coaches have improved their q-rating more than Mike Brown this postseason. From completely unlocking Karl-Anthony Towns by using him as a playmaker to bringing Mikal Bridges back from the dead with his unwavering support, Brown keeps pushing all the right buttons.

Arguably the only coach with a real case of out gameplanning him this postseason is the guy standing at the other end of the scores table (Mitch Johnson), who just recently vanquished the defending champs and the esteemed Mark Daigneault.

At this stage of the playoffs, it is going to be hard to throw something at a team that they haven't already seen. But the best coaches always find a way to save a couple tricks for the grand finale. So, which one of these guys will be able to pull one last rabbit out of their hat?

5. Karl-Anthony Towns against himself

New York Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns
New York Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns | David Richard-Imagn Images

Towns has to be one of the most volatile players in the league. That's because so much of his performance depends on his mindset. There are times where he can be indecisive and frustrated, leading to ball stopper possessions and unforced turnovers. But there also times where he is aggressive and efficient, turning him into a human mismatch.

This postseason, he has been the latter more often than not, which has lead to a historic showing from the All-NBA big man.

In many ways, Towns can allow the Knicks to dictate the way this series is played. He has the outside prowess to truly space Wembanyama out and keep him from deterring/altering shots around the rim. The Spurs will counter this by trying to put a smaller defender on him. Can Towns make them pay for trying this tactic? If so, New York may be the last team standing for the first time since 1973.

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