I understand if you think this is a bit early, but we’re deep enough into the 2025 WNBA season that certain teams are starting to take a more permanent shape. We know better what to expect, what the matchups entail, who is likely to stay down in the standings and who might find a way up into the playoffs. Just taking a peek at the 2026 WNBA Draft picture isn’t a crime. It’s just a little bit silly. And everyone likes silly things. Except the people who don’t.
So let’s look! This is what the 2026 WNBA Lottery would look like if everything went chalk. Keep in mind, in many sports where there is a draft, the order is based entirely on the team’s win/loss record from the preceding year. But in the WNBA, the four teams with the worst cumulative record over the last two seasons are eligible for the lottery, which is used to determine the top four picks in next year's draft.
Pick | Team | Record | Win % | 2-Year Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dallas | 1-11 | .083 | .192 |
2 | Los Angeles -> Seattle | 4-8 | .333 | .231 |
3 | Chicago -> Minnesota | 3-7 | .300 | .320 |
4 | Washington | 4-7 | .364 | .353 |
5 | Connecticut -> Chicago | 2-8 | .200 | .600 |
There is Dallas up top. They have a 40% chance at the time of this writing to receive the top pick in the draft. All they have to do is exactly what they’re doing.
Losing is so much fun.
A few things worth noting. Only three of the teams in the lottery with the bad losing records are keeping their picks. Chicago is missing their own pick, but they will be receiving one from Connecticut, so that’s cool I guess. It’s just interesting seeing the difference in considered value in draft picks from the WNBA compared to the NBA.
One other point worth mentioning is that it will be hard for Connecticut, even if they play extremely poorly for the rest of the year, to catch any of the teams ahead of them for lottery odds. They went 28-12 last year. Even with their 2-8 record in 2025, they have a positive two-year winning percentage. Maybe they can fix that by October.