The first day of women's college basketball conference tournaments was brutal for teams on the March Madness bubble. Upset after upset appear to have ended the dreams of a number of schools.
Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Four teams saw their March Madness hopes eliminated on the opening day of conference tournaments, reshaping the bubble landscape.
- Each team suffered crucial defeats that likely ended their at-large bid chances.
- These results not only close the books on their seasons but also highlight the intense parity and high stakes in women's college basketball this year.
This is good news for a handful of mid-major bubble teams, who aren't expected to suffer the same kind of early defeats, but it's very bad news for these four programs.
Stanford
Stanford's hopes of returning to the NCAA Tournament ended on Wednesday with an 83-76 overtime defeat against Miami. Already projected to be on the outside looking in, the Cardinal really needed a couple of ACC Tournament wins to have any chance here, especially in a season where the ACC is weaker than it has been. ESPN projects nine ACC teams make it in, but three of those nine are among the final eight teams in.
Stanford has been a team of runs this season. They won seven in a row to start the season, then later lost eight of nine to drop them from a clear at-large bid to the wrong side of the bubble. A 35-point win over Clemson to end the regular season reignited the team's chances, but Wednesday was the final blow.
We're now two years into the post-Tara VanDerveer era in Palo Alto, and it's clear that the floor is much, much lower. The team improved to 19-13 after going 16-15, but before Kate Paye took over, the program hadn't finished with fewer than 20 wins since the 2000-01 season, and hadn't had back-to-back seasons under 20 wins since the mid-1980s in VanDerveer's first two seasons at the helm.
That's not to say this program can't return to contention, but it won't be easy. Next season will be crucial — a third season missing the tournament in a row is unacceptable at a program like Stanford.
Mississippi State
Mississippi State suffered its fifth-worst loss of the season on Wednesday, losing by 18 points to a Florida team that probably has no real shot at making the NCAA Tournament.
Mississippi State WBB is ESPN's "last team in."
— SkinsHoops86 (@SkinsHoops86) March 4, 2026
Down 26 in the 4th to a Florida team that ain't dancing, in a must win game.
Give that last spot to good team outside the P4.#ncaaw
For a team on the bubble, this was an unacceptable loss. The Bulldogs couldn't contain Florida stars Liv McGill and Me'Arah O'Neal, with the two combining for 44 points in the victory. Mississippi State shot 34.8 percent from the floor and never recorded from an 11-point first quarter.
It was a tough season for the Bulldogs, who won fewer than 20 games for the first time since the 2021-22 season. Defense was a big problem all year, with the team currently 205th in the nation in defensive rating. Wednesday's loss officially busted the team's bubble, but I'm not sure a win would have even been enough as it would have set up a game with Oklahoma's high-powered offense, which could have just resulted in a different blowout loss.
Texas A&M
The Aggies were one of the most interesting cases for an at-large bid, because a team that entered the conference tournament at just 14-11 on the year probably isn't getting in under most, if not all, circumstances.
But A&M was also playing some of the nation's best basketball, winning five in a row to close out the regular season. That stretch included wins over two teams that should easily be in the tournament field — Tennessee and Ole Miss — as well as win over fellow bubble team Mississippi State. Momentum was on the Aggies' side.
But the funny thing about momentum is that I'm not sure it's actually real. A&M played Auburn on Wednesday, a team it beat last month by 18 points, and proceeded to get upset 50-49, scoring the team's fewest points since a Jan. 18 loss to Texas.
So now, at 14-12, the Aggies are out. However, head coach Joni Taylor expressed that the team's journey isn't necessarily over.
Joni Taylor believes that Texas A&M is an NCAA Tournament team, but adds they would accept an invitation to the WBIT should they not hear their name called on Selection Sunday.
— Mitchell Northam (@primetimeMitch) March 5, 2026
“This team deserves to play in the postseason. They’ve earned that.” #ncaaW
Now, the whole "transfer portal" thing means I can't say this next statement with 100 percent certainty, but assuming A&M brings back most of its team next year, I firmly believe that a deep WBIT run would be huge in terms of postseason experience, and that it would set the Aggies up to be an upper-third SEC team next season.
Nebraska
If any of these teams can still snag an at-large, it's Nebraska, though the Huskers now have to root against some teams that they wouldn't have really cared much about before. ESPN has the team as its last one in at the moment, but the next three teams — Utah, South Dakota State and Arizona State — all still have chances to improve their resumes. The Huskers don't.
Nebraska was ranked as high as No. 20 in the nation earlier this season, but the Huskers collapsed down the stretch, losing six in a row before closing the regular season with wins over Washington and Rutgers. That win over Washington was the team's first "good" win in almost a month, because I'm not counting a win over Northwestern as good. On Wednesday, the Huskers lost in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament to Indiana.
On the season, the Huskers were 0-10 against teams with a Her Hoop Stats rating of 32nd or better. That translated to a 1-10 record in Quad 1 games, which is, uhh...not good. Early wins might be enough to pad the resume in the eyes of the committee, but I think there are too many teams still alive who can wind up with better resumes for Nebraska to ultimately make it into this year's NCAA Tournament.