Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Key conferences like the ACC, Big East, and Big Ten feature clear favorites ready to dominate their postseason fields.
- As many as eight conferences will have multiple teams in March Madness but the favorites in every other will need to win out to secure a spot.
- Teams like UNC, Michigan and TCU are playing for bragging rights and a chance to move up to a much better seed in March.
It's conference tournament time in women's college basketball. Bubble spots in the NCAA Tournament are on the line for some teams, while for others, a strong run in the conference tournament can help a team lock up a top 16 seed for the Big Dance, giving the team the right to host the first weekend at home.
There are eight conferences that look like potential multi-bid ones, not counting the MAAC, where Fairfield has done enough to earn the conference a second bid if needed, though it shouldn't be needed as the Stags should roll through the conference tournament. Who, though, will win the other eight tournaments?
ACC: North Carolina
We're starting with the biggest upset pick: ACC No. 3 seed North Carolina. The Tar Heels have been hot lately, while the ACC's top two teams, Duke and Louisville, have started to show cracks.
UNC enters the conference tournament with wins in 12 of its past 13 games. The only loss was to Duke, but the Tar Heels managed to get revenge for that one by beating the Blue Devils 74-69 in the regular season finale.
Since Jan. 15, the Tar Heels have the ACC's fewest losses and second-best net rating. Duke has the best net rating, but enters the tournament with losses in two of the past three games. North Carolina has the momentum right now.
Big East: UConn
We don't have to pretend that the Big East Tournament is going to be anything other than a cakewalk for UConn. The Huskies are simply too much better than the rest of their conference foes for us to expect this to be remotely competitive.
The Huskies are 31-0 and went 20-0 in Big East play, Their conference numbers are just next-level wild.
Stat | Value (Big East Play Only) | Rank In Conference |
|---|---|---|
Points Per Game | 89.1 | 1st |
Opponent Points Per Game | 47.6 | 1st |
Average Margin | 41.5 | 1st |
I mean, they're winning Big East games by an average margin of over 40 points! Just two of their 20 conference wins were decided by fewer than 32 points, and the closest was a 14-point win over Villanova. And before you say "oh, Villanova might be able to give them a game based on that," the other meeting between the Huskies and Wildcats was a 49-point UConn victory. Let's just move on here. UConn will face opposition in the NCAA Tournament, but not the Big East one.
Big Ten: UCLA
The Big Ten has been very good, and there are a number of teams with the talent needed to make it to the conference championship game. The problem is that even in a conference with teams as good as Iowa and Michigan, UCLA just stands out above the rest.
Maybe the Bruins weren't quite as dominant relative to their conference as UConn, but they still went undefeated in conference play and, like Connecticut, led the conference in points for and against as well as average margin, winning their 18 games by an average of 25.2 points. So, not by Auriemma margins, but still, UCLA is clearly the Big Ten's best team.
Upsets could happen here. I mean, the team only beat Michigan by three points when they met, so a rematch with the Wolverines would be a dangerous game. Still, UCLA is the easy choice here.
Big 12: TCU
I'm picking TCU to win here, but with the caveat that the Big 12 is by far the most likely conference out of all of these to get super, super weird.
That's because, despite TCU clearly being the best team in the Big 12, the Horned Frogs have shown the occasional ability to lose a very winnable game. The team has four losses this season, and two of those are to teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble: Utah and Colorado.
Having a player as good as Olivia Miles means that TCU should win this, and the fact that the team has played so well against Baylor, West Virginia and Oklahoma State certainly helps their case, but you never know when a team in that second or third tier in the Big 12 will get hot and make a run. Iowa State might get a generational Audi Crooks run. Texas Tech might continue to shock the world. TCU is the favorite, but the Big 12 is just so, so deep this season.
SEC: South Carolina
The SEC has the most viable contenders for the conference title, as any of the top four should have a shot at it without things even needing to get weird. However, I'm still of the belief that South Carolina is the best team in the conference.
A big part of that is the depth that Dawn Staley has put together. There's just so much talent on this roster, from stars like Joyce Edwards and Ta'Niya Latson to more underrated players like Raven Johnson and Madina Okot.
Okot might be the secret weapon here. Near the end of the regular season, she started taking 3-pointers consistently, and it's probably at least worth noting that the Gamecocks are 6-0 when Okot makes a shot from beyond the arc, right?
Ivy League: Princeton
It's hard to beat a team three times. If that colloquialism holds true in the Ivy League Tournament, Princeton will be in good shape.
The Tigers lost just three games all season. In non-conference play, they fell on the road to Maryland, and then in conference play, the Tigers lost twice to Columbia. Put those two games aside, though, and Princeton has been the better team.
That should hold true in the conference tournament. The Tigers are led by one of the top mid-major players in the nation, Madison St. Rose, and were undefeated against non-Columbia Ivy teams, plus had some big non-conference wins, defeating Villanova, Rhode Island, Seton Hall and George Mason.
Atlantic 10: Richmond
The Atlantic 10 battle between Richmond and Rhode Island has been a good one all season, with the two sides splitting their two meetings so far. Both should make the NCAA Tournament, though the best chance for that to happen is to have Richmond win the auto-bid, as Rhode Island currently has two fewer losses.
And that's just what I'm predicting here. Richmond has the edge in the conference tournament because the Spiders are the team that's been here before. Led by the Atlantic 10's best player in Maggie Doogan, the Spiders won the conference tournament in 2024 and then made the NCAA Tournament last season as an at-large team. This is a team that knows how to lock in and win when the pressure is on.
Quad 1 Record | Quad 2 Record | |
|---|---|---|
Richmond | 0-2 | 3-3 |
Rhode Island | 1-1 | 2-1 |
It's also a battle-tested team. Richmond has played eight games against Quad 1 or Quad 2 opponents, three more than Rhode Island has played. While the two sides have the same number of wins in those games, Richmond's additional experience against top competition will prove to be a plus here.
Summit League: North Dakota State
By far the hardest prediction for me among the potential multi-bid conferences. North Dakota State is 26-3 on the season while South Dakota State is 24-6, but played a tougher schedule. Too tough, potentially, as the team suffered blowout losses to North Carolina and Duke as well as double-digit defeats against Columbia and Texas.
The two sides split their regular season meetings, with the Jackrabbits winning the most recent meeting by 15 points. Notably, though, the Bison defense still managed to slow down the Jackrabbits even in the loss, and that's been the case in both meetings. Meanwhile, I'm not sure how much I trust the Jackrabbits defense, which recently allowed 93 points in a win over Oral Roberts.
This one is close to a toss up, but I lean slightly in the different of the Bison. Assuming the two teams meet in the Summit League final, it's going to be must-watch television.