Down goes Michigan. The No. 1 team in the country, and the No. 1 overall seed in ESPN’s latestbracketology, was handed its second loss of the season on Saturday by Duke. It was the second of two games featuring the top four teams in the country, as Arizona also defeated Houston on the road, highlighting just how good the potential No. 1 overall seeds are. This is the closest we’ll get to March Madness until the real thing in a few weeks.
Now that Duke, Michigan and Arizona all have two losses, what separates them in the race for the No. 1 overall seed? Duke taking down Michigan was as big of a win as it gets and possibly gives the Blue Devils the edge, but Arizona spent most of the season at No. 1 until they lost at Kansas earlier this month. The margins are thin between the three teams, and Saturday made it that much thinner.
Duke vs. Michigan vs. Arizona: Who is the No. 1 overall seed?
Duke’s resume
- AP Poll rank: No. 3
- Best wins: Michigan, Kansas, Michigan State
- Key losses: Texas Tech, UNC
Duke has an awfully strong resume now after its win over Michigan. They have just two losses, and they’re both ranked teams. But for as good as Duke’s wins are, they aren’t as strong as Michigan or Arizona’s, in my opinion. The Blue Devils have been a great team this year and should be a No. 1 seed comfortably, I just don’t think they’re the No. 1 overall team. There’s still a lot of time for things to shake out, and Arizona and Michigan could stumble again down the stretch. If Duke continues to win, they’ll make a stronger argument, but right now, I still think they’re a step behind.
Arizona’s resume
- AP poll rank: No. 4
- Best wins: Florida, UConn, Houston
- Key losses: Texas Tech, Kansas
Arizona went on a 12-0 run to get past Houston on the road, picking up a massive win over the Cougars. That’s about as good of a Quad 1 win as you can have, especially considering that Houston entered the day 46-1 at home since joining the Big 12. If you include Arizona's early-season wins over Florida and UConn, the Wildcats seemingly have a bulletproof resume.
But that’s not entirely true: The Wildcats also suffered back-to-back losses to Texas Tech and Kansas. Those defeats probably hurt their resumes more than the wins will boost it. Arizona still has games against Kansas and Iowa State; wins over those two teams will make them look that much better in the eyes of the committee.Â
Michigan’s resume
- AP poll rank: No. 1
- Best wins: Nebraska, Michigan State, Purdue
- Key losses: Duke, Wisconsin
Michigan really needed that win over Duke to boost their resume. The Wolverines have some good wins and are probably still fine, but a win over the Blue Devils would have sealed them as the easy favorite to be the No. 1 overall seed. They do have three top-10 wins with games against No. 10 Illinois and No. 15 Michigan State left to play.Â
Should Houston still be one of the No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament?
After a tough loss to Arizona, it makes you wonder if Houston will have enough to enter the NCAA Tournament as the fourth No. 1 seed. Not only have they lost their last two games after also falling at Iowa State, but they really don’t have strong wins to make up for it. That’s why I expect UConn to step in as the final No. 1 seed: The Huskies have the strongest resume of the teams in contention for the final spot.Â
UConn is ranked No. 5 in the AP poll and has played BYU, Illinois, Kansas and Florida. Though they’ve lost to St. John’s and Creighton, there’s not another team fighting them for a spot. You could make the argument that Iowa State could land it, but I personally think UConn is the stronger team.Â
I think Houston will probably end up as a No. 2 seed unless Duke, Arizona, Michigan, Iowa State or UConn collapse toward the end of the season. The Cougars are a good team and the loss to Arizona isn’t a bad one at all, but if they don’t turn things around they’ll play themselves out of a No. 1 seed.Â