The 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket doesn't have that many bid thieves to worry about, but the ones out there have the ability to ramp up the madness of March. Miami (OH) looks like the biggest chaos merchant of Selection Sunday. If they get in, like Joe Lundardi projects, the SEC will be the conference that pays (insofar as a conference with 10 teams already in can suffer).
In his final bracketology, Lunardi has the RedHawks as one of the last four teams in. They'd be a First Four participant, forced to play an extra game to get into the first round.
Joe Lunardi's bracketology has Miami (OH) relegated to the First Four
The First Four is an interesting wrinkle for the selection committee. Those games are played in Dayton, a mere 40 miles from Oxford. If the committee is conscious of ticket sales and atmosphere (they definitely are), putting Miami in one of those matchups is a home run swing.
Of course, Miami can't complain about having to play an extra game. They did it to themselves after all. After completing an undefeated regular season, they were stunned by Akron in the MAC Tournament. While the Zips went on to secure the automatic bid, Ohio opened the door for a shocking March Madness exclusion of a 31-win team. With zero Quad 1 games on their résumé, the selection committee could leave them out. With that as an alternative, a First Four game is a small price to pay for the bid.
The SEC could pay for Miami (OH)'s MAC slip up
Lunardi's projection is bad news for Oklahoma and Auburn, who are the first teams out of an already muddy bubble. Miami letting Akron grab the MAC autobid and then scraping their own ticket will likely leave one of those teams out.
Miami's 3-1 record is impressive, and their NET rank of 64 isn't bad. However, they have a strength of schedule of 282nd. By comparison, Oklahoma's is 41st and Auburn is third. Both OU and UA have four Quad 1 wins with NET ranks of 48th and 38th respectively. The Tigers beat likely No. 1-seed Florida.
The SEC has 10 teams in the field in Lunardi's bracket. Miami could be the reason they don't have 11.
The thing is Lunardi is likely 100 percent spot on with his Miami projection, at least. No 30-win team has ever been left out of the tournament. In short, one of Oklahoma or Auburn is probably screwed. Fortunately, it can't be both because VCU beat Dayton (a potential bid stealer) in the A-10 Tournament final.