College basketball had a huge weekend that could prove to be a pivot point for this season's endgame. The NCAA's top 16 seed reveal on Saturday morning offered some key information about what the selection committee is prioritizing this season, and the on-court action was top notch as the top four teams in the AP Top 25 faced off in key contests.
The unquestioned highlight of the night was No. 3 Duke's victory over No. 1 Michigan, a game in which the Blue Devils' defense smothered the Wolverines in a way no one else has managed to this season. How will that game, and the rest of the critical action from the week, impact the new poll set to drop on Monday? Read on for a look at the projected rankings and some deeper analysis of the week's most meaningful games.
Projected AP Top 25 rankings after Duke takes down Michigan
1. Duke Blue Devils
2. Arizona Wildcats
3. Michigan Wolverines
4. Iowa State Cyclones
5. UConn Huskies
6. Purdue Boilermakers
7. Gonzaga Bulldogs
8. Florida Gators
9. Kansas Jayhawks
10. Nebraska Cornhuskers
11. Michigan State Spartans
12. Virginia Cavaliers
13. Illinois Fighting Illini
14. Texas Tech Red Raiders
15. St. John's Red Storm
16. Miami (Ohio) Redhawks
17. North Carolina Tar Heels
18. Alabama Crimson Tide
19. Saint Louis Billikens
20. Arkansas Razorbacks
21. BYU Cougars
22. Louisville Cardinals
23. Tennessee Volunteers
24. Wisconsin Badgers
25. NC State Wolfpack
Duke's defense locks down the Wolverines
A dominant offense has been the skeleton key all season for No. 1 Michigan, which has scored at least 74 points in every game since a tight victory at TCU in November. No. 3 Duke simply didn't care, smothering the Wolverines defensively in a way we haven't seen since that matchup with the Horned Frogs while limiting Michigan to just 40 percent shooting and 6-of-25 from the 3-point line thanks to tremendous switching and closeouts.
The length of the Blue Devils seemed to be a big issue for Michigan, who had trouble shaking free from the likes of Patrick Ngbonga II and Maliq Brown. The victory, which is even more impressive considering Cameron Boozer had to sit much of the second half due to foul trouble, should elevate Duke to the top spot for the first time this season while Michigan has a slight dip to No. 3.
Arizona raises real doubts about Houston's contender status
Saturday was not a good day for No. 2 Houston, which began the day getting shockingly left off the top line in the top 16 reveal because of a head-to-head loss to No. 6 Iowa State on Monday. The Cougars had a big opportunity to change the narrative when they hosted No. 4 Arizona later Saturday afternoon, but Kelvin Sampson's team lost pretty convincingly despite the Wildcats missing star freshman Koa Peat due to a leg injury.
Selection committee chair Keith Gill pointed out during the CBS broadcast that Houston's top wins were not quite up to par with No. 5 UConn's, which also rated ahead of the Cougars in the top 16 exercise. Failing to take down the Wildcats is not the end of the world for the Coogs, but they are running out of time to show they truly belong in that top tier contender group.
UCLA gets a massive bubble result with an upset of Illinois
Bruins fans were having flashbacks to 1995 at the end of overtime against No. 10 Illinois, when Donovan Dent went coast-to-coast for the game-winning layup in a 95-94 win over the Fighting Illini. Dent's heroics were eerily similar to Tyus Edney's coast-to-coast layup in the 1995 NCAA Tournament to help the Bruins stave off an opening-round upset.
The win was massive for UCLA, which has been firmly on the bubble for weeks and now adds another Quad 1 win to its ledger to go along with a buzzer-beating victory over Purdue earlier in the season. A split of the California trip was not an ideal result for Illinois, which is trying to improve its seeding in March, but they have a big opportunity ahead of them with a visit from Michigan on Friday night in FOX's primetime spotlight.
NC State blows out North Carolina
Even though they aren't quite a bubble team, Will Wade's NC State Wolfpack haven't exactly been a lock for March Madness either. The Wolfpack took a big step towards rectifying that with an 82-58 blowout victory over No. 16 North Carolina on Tuesday night, improving to 10-4 in ACC play and paving the way for admission into the next AP Top 25 poll.
The Tar Heels clearly felt the absence of star freshman Caleb Wilson, who is out indefinitely with a fractured hand, as they shot just 32 percent from the floor and went 5-of-33 from beyond the arc. Getting Henri Veesaar back on Saturday offered a key lift for North Carolina, which rebounded with a 13-point road win at Syracuse — an important win considering the Heels' last four games all come against NCAA Tournament contenders.
Alabama outlasts Arkansas in Darius Acuff showcase
The most entertaining game of the week came on Wednesday in Fayetteville, as No. 25 Alabama won a ridiculous 117-115 double-overtime shootout against No. 20 Arkansas. While Labaron Philon's 36 points were big for the Crimson Tide, he wasn't even the high scorer of the game as Razorbacks star freshman Darius Acuff poured in 49 of his own in the defeat.
Acuff was unstoppable for Arkansas, going 16-of-27 from the floor and knocking down six triples to showcase why he will be a lottery pick in June's NBA Draft. Both teams followed up this barn-burner with victories on Saturday, which should allow the Razorbacks to hold steady at No. 20 while Alabama, which has won four straight, figures to make a sizeable leap in the polls.
Saint Louis essentially ends VCU's at-large hopes
It has felt like No. 18 Saint Louis has been on autopilot towards March Madness for a while, but a stunning upset at Rhode Island opened the door for surging VCU to make the Atlantic 10 a two-bid league if they could take add a Quad 1 win on the road against the Billikens on Friday night. The Rams actually held a nine-point lead at the break before Saint Louis hit another gear after halftime, outscoring VCU by 22 in the second half to escape with an 88-75 victory.
The big headline from the game was a scuffle between the two teams near the final whistle, but it is important to note that VCU has now lost its opportunity to make a significant impact on their resume prior to the conference tournament. Winning out will likely ensure a rematch with the Billikens in the final, but at that point the Rams would be better off just taking their fate into their own hands and winning the league's auto-bid themselves.