The Michigan Wolverines basketball program has all the eyes on its NCAA Tournament performance this year. The Wolverines were the No. 1 program in college basketball for much of the season and had just one loss up until a late-season clash with Duke. They were handed their third loss of the season to Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament title game. Michigan’s late skid, which also included a buzzer beater to beat Wisconsin, shed light on some possible cracks within their foundation.
Thanks to another scandal surrounding the Alabama men’s basketball program, the Wolverines’ path to the Final Four just got a bit easier. Alabama’s Aden Holloway was arrested Monday on two felony chargers, including possessing a pound of marijuana — not for personal use — and failure to affix a tax stamp.
Holloway is the Crimson Tide’s second leading scorer, so without him, you have to think Michigan feels a lot more comfortable coming out of one of the weaker regions in this year’s March Madness bracket.
Michigan has all the pressure to reach the Final Four
By the KenPom standard, Michigan is very much one of the title contenders in this year’s NCAA Tournament. The Wolverines are ranked No. 8 in offensive efficiency and No. 1 in defensive efficiency, which essentially measures how many points you score and how many you give up, per 100 possessions. According to this metric, no team has been outside the top 40 in offensive efficiency and top 25 in defensive efficiency and won a national championship.
The fact that Michigan is top 10 in both with the top ranked defensive efficiency, well the Wolverines have every reason to go on a Final Four run. Of all the teams in Michigan’s region, only four of them have both a top 40 offensive rating and top 25 defensive rating:
- No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones
- No. 3 Virginia Cavaliers
- No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders
- No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers
Four of the teams in their region have just a top 40 offensive efficiency and top 25 defensive efficiency:
- No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide
- No. 7 Kentucky Wildcats
- No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs
- No. 10 Santa Clara Broncos
Texas Tech lost its best player, JT Toppin, to an ACL injury late in the season so they probably won’t be the threat they were expected to be; Alabama is down its second-leading scorer. That’s two teams out of the way for Michigan. They’d possibly have to play Georgia in the second round, assuming both win their first round games.
After that, the Wolverines wouldn’t have to worry about playing Kentucky, Santa Clara, Iowa State, Virginia or Tennessee until the Elite Eight at the earliest. Michigan’s region is lined up for them to go on a deep run and the fact that Alabama and Texas Tech shouldn’t be threats, puts more pressure on them to make it to the Final Four.
These two teams will be Michigan’s toughest tests
No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State could be a team that sneaks up on the entire field, if I’m being honest. They’re an efficient shooting team and their No. 4 ranking in KenPom’s defensive efficiency is not something to forget. Defensive teams typically do really well in the NCAA Tournament, especially after the first weekend. The Cyclones could be Michigan’s toughest game in the region if they meet in the Elite Eight.
No. 3 Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia nearly beat Duke for the ACC Tournament championship and while the loss didn’t mean much outside of hurting their chances of a better seed, it showed the college basketball world that the Cavaliers are better than you think. Sure, they were the first ever No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed in the NCAA Tournament — then they won the national championship the following season. I wouldn’t sleep on Virginia at all. They could be just as good as Michigan and Iowa State in this region.