Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- With Michigan recently crowned NCAA champions, several high-profile freshmen face pivotal decisions about their NBA futures this offseason
- Projected first-round talents must weigh the benefits of additional college development against the risks and rewards of entering a deep 2026 draft class.
- The choices of these athletes will significantly impact both their personal trajectories and the strategic planning of NBA franchises.
Michigan has been crowned NCAA champs and the offseason is in full swing, with transfer portal chaos sweeping the nation. It's also NBA Draft season, with prospects weighing the benefits of NIL and another year in school against the risk (and potential reward) of a professional leap.
For these prospects in particular, the stay-or-go decision is complicated. All of them should think twice, but let's dive into who should stay in school — and who will stay in school.
Nate Ament | F | Tennessee
Nate Ament put together a productive freshman campaign for the Vols, averaging 16.7 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists on .399/.333/.790 splits. A five-star recruit, ranked fourth in the class behind the projected top-3 picks of Cam Boozer, Darryn Peterson and AJ Dybantsa, Ament was always viewed as a one-and-done candidate.
While this was a successful season on the whole, Ament has a real decision ahead of him. The pros: he gets to the free throw line (57.8 FTR) and he exhibits phenomenal touch in the mid-range and at the charity stripe, even if his 3-point efficiency lagged. You don't find a ton of 6-foot-10 wings who move as fluidly and shoot as smoothly as Ament.
That said, he shot 51.8 percent at the rim, which is worrisome for his size. Ament is physical as a driver and willing to take contact, but he also struggles to gain separation and create clean looks. The explosiveness just is not there, exacerbated by his complete lack of strength.
Beyond catch-and-shoot stuff, it's hard to see Ament generating consistent offense against NBA defenses as a rookie. If he lands with the right team — a team that can be patient with him and really harp on strength development — the ceiling is high. If Ament winds up somewhere in the top-10, with a bad team gambling on massive upside, it will almost certainly be counterproductive to his long-term arc.
Another year of school, with a chance to bulk up, polish his footwork, and find ways to finish consistently below (or hopefully, more often above) the rim, would do Ament a load of good. Just don't expect a prospect with his pedigree, still projected as a lottery pick, to slow-play things.
What Ament should do: Stay
What Ament will do: Go
Allen Graves | F | Santa Clara
Allen Graves is the analytics darling of the 2026 draft cycle — a freshman role player at Santa Clara whose elite defensive playmaking metrics (5.0 BLK%, 4.9 STL%), workmanlike rebounding and efficient shooting (40.7 3P%) will light up stat models and invigorate certain front offices.
He's an older freshman who redshirted his first year with the Broncos, but Graves is still 20, with what feels like a ready-made NBA skill set. That said, he scores almost exclusively on spot-ups, cuts and offensive rebounds, with the occasional bully-ball post-up mixed in. The Broncos didn't afford him much freedom offensively.
Graves was a low-volume shooter this season (2.6 3PA/G) and his lack of on-ball utility, while not necessarily harmful in the role he projects to play in the NBA, could mean he's a bit too restricted and one-dimensional for the modern game. You need role players who can put the ball on the floor and do more than rebound or finish, especially in the modern game.
There's a strong case for Graves, who has already entered the transfer portal, to return to school, find a program with a brighter spotlight, and test the limits of his skill set a bit more thoroughly before he declares. The defense alone is a strong NBA selling point, but front offices might want to see it extraopolated over starting minutes on a more credible team. On the other hand, a numbers-forward front office with a strong sense of projection (see: Grizzlies, Pacers) could look at Graves and take him a lot higher than expected. There is always downside risk to returning, too.
What Graves should do: Stay
What Graves will do: Stay
Ebuka Okorie | G | Stanford
Ebuka Okorie has officially declared for the draft, but he will maintain his eligibility for now. He has not entered the transfer portal, which is notable. If he does return to school, it will be for a second season at Stanford.
This was an impressive freshman class, but few were more spectacular than Okorie. He put up 23.2 points per game to lead the ACC, along with 3.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists. Okorie is a bolt of lightning made flesh — explosive with his first step and damn near impossible to keep out of the paint. He also took and made a lot of 3s, with a healthy defensive footprint (2.7 STL%), to boot.
There are two reasons Okorie isn't a one-and-done lock. Well, maybe three. First, he's 6-foot-2, which comes with natural challenges at the next level. Second, this is an impossibly deep guard class. He'd face a lot less competition for draft real estate in 2027, assuming he can run back the absurd production as a sophomore. There is also the NIL of it all. Okorie can make more money as Stanford's superstar engine than as a late first or early second-round pick.
Okorie doesn't have too many holes in his profile, his height notwithstanding, but NBA front offices might want to see him ramp up the point guard activities a bit. He was an electric three-level scorer for the Cardinal, but he did not facilitate as prolifically as the other elite guards in his class. Another year of polish — and perhaps a run at the Wooden Award, for all we know — could help Okorie really solidify his stock ahead of a weaker 2027 draft.
What Okorie should do: Stay
What Okorie will do: Go
Tyler Tanner | G | Vanderbilt
Tyler Tanner is a special, special player coming off an exceptional sophomore season at Vanderbilt. The local kid does not fit the standard profile of an NBA prospect — he's 6-foot even and 175 pounds — but he does so many helpful things on a basketball court. It's hard to deny the impact, even if Tanner goes against everything we're taught about smaller guards and their professional fallibility.
Most small guards with featherweight frames are too easy to pick on defensively. Tanner isn't going to lock down the point of attack against prime Russell Westbrook; the man needs to add strength. What Tanner can do, however, is create events with his unreal athleticism and anticipation. His defensive playmaking is off the charts for a guard prospect (4.1 STL%). He pounces on lazy passes and disrupts so much as a helper. He can also recover and contest far more effectively than one might expect. Tanner will get his hands up, impede his assignment's vision, and sometimes even block shots from behind when he's beat off the dribble.
Tanner plays so much bigger than he is; he's a better rebounder than 6-foot-6 Keaton Wagler. On paper, he's the best defensive guard in the first-round conversation. He can apply pressure on the rim, where he finishes at 64.4 percent. He even gets vertical, with Tanner producing more dunks (17) than Kingston Flemings (11), Darius Acuff (7) or Ebuka Okorie (8) — a perfect illustration of Tanner's outlier athleticism.
If he returns to school and gets better, Tanner is a lottery pick next summer. If he returns to school and his 3-point efficiency wanes and he can't quite live up to his breakout sophomore campaign, the hand-wringing over Tanner's frame and how it projects will only intensify. Tanner has practically committed to another year at Vandy already, but there's a strong case for capitalizing on this remarkable season and hoping the right front office can think outside the box.
What Tanner should do: Go
What Tanner will do: Stay
Braylon Mullins | G | UConn
Braylon Mullins was up and down all season for UConn, but he caught fire at the right time and hit a few massive shots to help the Huskies advance to the national championship game — including his 40-foot game-winner against Duke in the Elite Eight, which will live forever in college hoops lore.
Mullins missed a couple weeks to begin the year with an ankle injury. He never quite found his stroke (33.5 percent from deep), despite his billing as the best movement shooter in the draft. Now, Mullins passes the eye test with flying colors. His nonstop motion, pristine footwork and mechanics, the glowing touch indicators — all of it means he should shoot the lights out in the NBA. How teams weigh Mullins' volume and difficulty, compared to actual results, will be fascinating to monitor.
At the end of the day, Mullins can definitely shoot. That's not really the concern. But what else does he provide on a consistent basis? Mullins competes on defense, but his thin frame leaves him vulnerable in certain matchups. He was a poor rebounder, he struggled to pressure the rim and he almost never got to the free throw line.
NBA front offices value versatility more than ever. Role players need to contribute in a variety of ways. If Mullins is just a shooter who can't really extend advantages or prove above-average as a defender, it will get dicey. He projects somewhere in the 10-20 range, but a fall isn't entirely out of the question. Mullins can probably get more guaranteed money at UConn, where his skill set fits perfectly — and where physical development will be clearly seen and rewarded. A return probably wouldn't hurt, unless he gets hurt. That said, Mullins has probably ventured too far down the one-and-done path to turn back now.
What Mullins should do: Stay
What Mullins will do: Go
Koa Peat | F | Arizona
Koa Peat is such a unique prospect in the modern era. He has done nothing but win in high school and in college. The 19-year-old put up several monster performances in the NCAA Tournament, including 21 points on 8-of-11 shooting against Arkansas and 20 points on 9-of-18 shooting against Purdue. He began the season viewed as a surefire one-and-done candidate with top 10 aspirations.
There's a bit more uncertainty now, though. Peat is probably still a first-round pick; teams will value his winning intangibles. He's built like a tank and uses his strength to full effect, whether it's bulldozing to the rim, crashing the glass or bodying up his man defensively. That said, he's also a 6-foot-8 power forward who doesn't really protect the rim or space the floor. Not exactly on the cutting edge of modern basketball.
Peat will clean up on cuts and dunks, sprinkle in a few mid-range buckets and render strong, connective decisions in the flow of an offense. He's a very good college player. Whether he's ready for the NBA game, which is so demanding in terms of spacing and three-level scoring, remains to be seen.
A polarizing prospect by nature, Peat could still have fans as high as the lottery. He will declare for the draft and there's a damn good chance he's still in it come June. He wouldn't improve his stock much with another year of school unless his approach and his skill set meaningfully evolve. Whether Peat is capable of that should drive his decision, ultimately. Arizona will be awesome again next season, with or without him. My personal verdict: he should declare and see how the cards fall.