WBB Bracketology: Last four in, first four out predictions after power conference tourneys

The NCAA Tournament bubble is basically settled at this point, with only two more mid-major tournaments featuring teams that could need an at-large bid with a loss. One of those — the MAAC with Fairfield — will be decided on Monday night while the other, the Ivy League, will lead a couple of teams to sweat through next weekend.

Still, we have a pretty good idea of what to expect when the 68-team bracket is revealed, as the power conference tournaments gave us clarity into how the bubble has shaken out.

Last four in

Colorado

At this point, Colorado might not even be in the "last four in" after a strong Big 12 Tournament that saw the team beat Kansas and Baylor to advance all the way to the semifinals, where the team lost to West Virginia by a single point.

The Buffaloes looked clearly in the tournament until the final week of the regular season, when upset losses to Utah and BYU pushed the team back on to the bubble. Colorado needed a strong Big 12 Tournament run to get into the field, and the team delivered just that.

Arizona State

I understand that Arizona State didn't play the toughest schedule in the world, facing just one power conference team in non-conference play. At the same time, the Sun Devils are a 24-win power conference team. That has to count for something, right?

What head coach Molly Miller has done in her first season in Tempe has been transformative for this program. Sitting just 51st in the NET is obviously not a great sign and neither is a 1-6 Quad 1 record, but the Sun Devils are 6-2 in Quad 2 games and won two games in the Big 12 Tournament, which should be enough,

Nebraska

I have conflicting thoughts on Nebraska making it into the field over a deserving mid-major like North Dakota State (spoilers), but the Huskers appear to have done enough to still sneak into the tournament.

The 18-12 Huskers got off to a strong start to the season, going 12-0 with wins over Virginia, North Dakota State and Creighton. Since then, though, Nebraska is just 6-12, and three of those wins are against Big Ten bottom feeders Purdue, Northwestern and Rutgers. This team really, really struggled down the stretch and went just 1-10 in Quad 1 games, but all indications suggest that the team will still find its way into the Big Dance.

Richmond

This is the one team that's really sweating things right now. Richmond's at-large case took a major hit as the team lost by 15 points to George Mason in the Atlantic 10 semifinals. Losing to Rhode Island in the conference championship game would have been one thing, but not even making it? That hurts.

Still, Richmond is 37th in the NET, the highest of any mid-major in the nation. That's going to be a huge thing that the selection committee weighs, especially if the conversation is about Richmond vs North Dakota State. Richmond has three Quad 1/2 wins; NDSU has one and sits 10 spots deeper in the NET.

First four out

North Dakota State

I really thought the Bison had a shot to be a tournament team even if they lost the Summit League championship, but that was before Colorado and Arizona State went on Big 12 Tournament runs that moved both to the right side of the bubble.

If we're talking my personal feelings here, I think the Bison should be in over Nebraska. Instead, they're likely competing with Richmond for the final spot, and I outlined above why the Bison lose out in metric comparisons. It's just a shame that a 28-4 team in one of the toughest mid-major conferences is going to be left out.

BYU

BYU had some strong highs this season, including a five-game win streak at the end of the season that was only snapped by a Big 12 Tournament loss to TCU. The problem is that it was probably a case of too little, too late after an uneven conference season and a non-conference portion of the schedule that featured just one win over a power conference opponent.

But BYU has something to build on here, assuming that Delaney Gibb returns for a third season with the Cougars. Gibb averaged 17.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 2.0 steals this season, but also missed eight games. With a healthy Gibb in tow, BYU can make noise next season.

Utah

BYU isn't the only Big 12 team located in the state of Utah that will come up just short of making the NCAA Tournament. Utah is in that position as well after the Utes went 19-12 this season.

Utah's biggest issue was that it played three NCAA Tournament-bound teams in a row in non-conference play and went 0-3 in those games, losing each by double-digits and falling by 52 points to UConn. Those non-conference performances gave the team little room for error, and three conference losses to BYU was the killer that ended Utah's NCAA Tournament hopes.

Mississippi State

The Bulldogs went 14-1 to open the season with the lone loss coming to Texas Tech. From there, though, Mississippi State plummeted, winning just four more games the rest of the season, including two losses to a Florida team that's also on the wrong side of the bubble and a bad loss to Missouri, which finished with the third-worst record in the conference.

Honestly, while I think Mississippi State gets the "first four out" slot here, I think another SEC team, Texas A&M, deserves tournament consideration more than the Bulldogs, as the Aggies ended the season on a strong note. Neither will make the NCAA Tournament, but A&M feels like the clearly better team.

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