Not long ago, Texas looked unbeatable, especially after beating UCLA and South Carolina on consecutive days in November. The team opened the season with 18 consecutive wins before finally losing a close one on the road to LSU. Then, just a few days later, Texas lost again. This time, it was to South Carolina by three points. That one was also on the road.
Where will Texas land in this week's AP poll? Here's my projection for what Monday's AP Top 25 poll will look like the Texas loss as well as a number of other losses from ranked teams.
Projected AP Top 25 women's college basketball rankings
- UConn
- South Carolina
- UCLA
- Vanderbilt
- Texas
- LSU
- Michigan
- Louisville
- TCU
- Iowa
- Kentucky
- Ohio State
- Maryland
- Oklahoma
- Michigan State
- Baylor
- Tennessee
- Ole Miss
- Texas Tech
- Duke
- Princeton
- Washington
- Notre Dame
- Nebraska
- Illinois
Vanderbilt moves into the top four
Do I think Vanderbilt ultimately winds up as a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, forcing Texas down to the No. 2 line? No. No offense meant at all to the Commodores here, because they're one of just two undefeated teams remaining in the nation after Texas Tech suffered its first defeat this week. However, their first loss might come as soon as Monday against Michigan, and the team still has regular-season games against South Carolina and Texas remaining.
But for now, Shea Ralph's team is undefeated. With Texas losing twice recently, it feels like the AP voters have no choice but to move Vanderbilt past Texas. Mikayla Blakes might be the best scorer in the nation right now considering Audi Crooks' recent struggles, and this team has an offense capable of outscoring anyone and a defense capable of slowing down almost anyone.
Maybe Vanderbilt won't hang on to the No. 4 spot all season, but this is a viable championship contender at this point. The schedule might not have been the toughest, but you don't just luck into an 18-0 start with a win over LSU.
Duke is back
Duke had an awful non-conference run, losing six times in that portion of the schedule, including a run of four loses in a row to South Florida, South Carolina, UCLA and LSU. A lot of people counted the Blue Devils out at that point.
It's true that since conference play began, Duke hasn't faced a team as good as those latter three names it lost to in non-conference, but that shouldn't distract us from the fact that the Blue Devils are rolling in ACC play. Duke is now 8-0 to open the conference season and really showed how good it is on Sunday with a dominant 93-46 win over Georgia Tech, the same team that beat Notre Dame in overtime earlier this month.
What's changed? Well...part of it simply the level of competition, as the Blue Devils played a nightmarish non-conference schedule. The other notable thing, though, is that the Blue Devils have locked in on defense. The team had an 89.0 defensive rating in non-conference games, but that's dropped to 80.5 in ACC play. Allowing 8.5 fewer points per 100 possessions is a good way to turn games that might have been close losses into close wins instead.
Goodbye, Cyclones
Iowa State's fall from grace has been rough. The Addy Brown injury has really killed the team, because it's meant that defenses don't have to be afraid of doubling Audi Crooks. Add in that teams are targeting her on the other end to wear her down, and it's led to a complete crash from the Cyclones. A team that once looked like a potential Final Four contender now looks to be in danger of missing the tournament altogether.
Yes, the Cyclones are still 14-5, but with Brown out indefinitely, it's hard to see many more chances for wins considering how poorly the team is playing. Five consecutive losses are bad enough, but the loss on Sunday to Oklahoma State was by 28 points. An offense that scored 85 or more points eight times in its first nine games now has failed to eclipse 70 points on this losing streak.
The voters have to respond by dropping Iowa State completely this week. Simply put: this is not a top 25 team at the moment.