Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The Wisconsin Badgers, a 5-seed, have shown they can beat anyone with elite 3-point shooting and giant-killer confidence.
- The Saint Mary's Gaels improved their offense this season and could use their slow tempo and defense to upset higher seeds.
- The Ohio State Buckeyes, despite an 8-seed, have advanced metrics and a star scorer who thrives against top competition.
One of the big challenges of filling out an NCAA Tournament bracket is figuring out who will come out of nowhere to make a Final Four run. The 2025 NCAA Tournament was very chalky as the four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four, but that was only the second time since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985 that all of the top seeds got through the main draw, which implies it is a historical outlier.
While this year's top seeds (Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida) are historically strong, past precedent and odds dictate that at least one of them will not make it to Indianapolis. Since the tournament returned from the COVID pandemic in 2021, we have seen two 11 seeds (Bid thief NC State in 2024 and UCLA from the First Four in 2021), an 8-seed (North Carolina in 2022), two 5-seeds (Miami and San Diego State in 2023) and a 9-seed (Florida Atlantic in 2023) reach the Final Four, with 2023 having no No. 1 seeds get that far.
While a weak bubble could make it unlikely a true Cinderella story emerges this year, the odds are high someone we didn't expect gets hot over the next two weeks and punches a Final Four ticket. Let's look at four potential dark horses to make it to Indianapolis, with the main caveat being that we are only choosing from teams who are a 5-seed or lower for this exercise.
Wisconsin Badgers
There is always a team in the NCAA Tournament that feels like no matter what you choose to do with them in your bracket is the wrong answer. This year's edition of that stereotype in Wisconsin, who has played to the level of its competition all season long, which has led to some very strange losses but also a collection of elite wins in league play, blowing out Michigan State at home and scoring road wins against Michigan, Illinois and Purdue.
A big key to those results has been the Badgers' prowess from 3-point range, where they shot 36.3 percent as a team during the regular season and knocked down at least 15 triples in each of their marquee victories. Having the confidence of being a giant killer and the ability to knock down 3-point shots at a hot clip is the recipe for a team to storm through the bracket and be a surprise Final Four entrant.
The Badgers narrowly lost to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament, earning a 5-seed and a date with a dangerous 12-seed in High Point. SEC champ Arkansas awaits in the Round of 32 before a date with Arizona in the Sweet 16, but the Badgers' history as giant killers makes them a viable threat.
Saint Mary's Gaels
The West Coast Gaels are NCAA Tournament regulars and play a rugged defensive style that makes them a tough draw for anyone in March Madness. Combining that defensive intensity with a very slow tempo puts Saint Mary's in position to keep any game close, which is an ideal situation to be in if you're trying to win NCAA Tournament games against unfamiliar opposition.
Offense has been a bugaboo for the Gaels in the past as Randy Bennett's team has been limited by a lack of skill on that end of the floor, but Saint Mary's is notably more efficient this season, improving their offensive output by nearly five points per game while shooting over six percent better from the perimeter this season (38.9 percent) than last season (32.3 percent). That improved ability to score could be a differentiator for the Gaels, who have already beaten Gonzaga, Santa Clara and Northern Iowa this season to gain confidence against tournament-caliber competition.
Saint Mary's landed a 7-seed in the South Region, getting bubble team Texas A&M before a date with Houston in the Round of 32. The Cougars have been vulnerable this season, getting tripped up against teams capable of defending, and the Gaels could be a tough draw for Houston.
St. John's Red Storm
The Big East may be down this year but having a Hall of Famer on your sideline is almost like a March Madness cheat code. Rick Pitino's first NCAA Tournament trip with St. John's came to a disappointing end with a loss to Arkansas in the Round of 32 but this year's Red Storm team is built to be a defensive menace in March.
The Red Storm finished the regular season with the 14th-most efficient defense in the country according to KenPom thanks in part to their massive front line of Zuby Ejiofor, Bryce Hopkins and Dillon Mitchell. The lack of a true point guard hurt them in non-conference play, where they underachieved against a tough schedule, but the addition of Mitchell to the starting lineup as a point-forward type has helped unlocked St. John's offense as a facilitator for a team that is better from the perimeter than they were a year ago.
The Red Storm had a tricky draw as the 5-seed in the East with Northern Iowa, but their path isn't terrible past that. 4-seed Kansas has been inconsistent all season and top seed Duke has been hammered by injuries of late, opening a path for a Pitino masterclass to get the Red Storm to Indianapolis.
Miami Hurricanes
Expectations were low for the Hurricanes after Jai Lucas took over for the retiring Jim Larranaga as head coach but Miami made a ton of noise in the ACC. A strong recruiting class from Lucas helped Miami overachieve compared to preseason thoughts, where they were picked eighth in the ACC's preseason poll, and they won 24 games in the regular season while holding their own against North Carolina (who they beat at home for their signature win), Louisville and Virginia.
Ball movement is a strength for the Hurricanes, who averaged over 16 assists per game during the regular season, and their unselfishness makes it hard for other teams to prevent them from working the shot clock to find quality looks. KenPom had the Hurricanes as a relatively balanced group ranking inside the Top 35 in both offensive and defensive efficiency to end the regular season, which is a good sign for a team trying to make its mark in March.
The Hurricanes landed in the bottom half of the West Region, which is set up nicely for them as they have a winnable game against Missouri in Round 1 and a vulnerable Purdue side in the Round of 32. Gonzaga is a gettable game for Miami in the Sweet 16, making a deep run for Lucas in year one a strong possibility.
Ohio State Buckeyes
A slew of Quad 1 losses meant Ohio State rode the bubble for most of the season, but a strong finishing kick helped the Buckeyes secure their position in the field before the Big Ten Tournament. Advanced metrics are very high on Ohio State, which ranked as Ken Pom's 26th-best team at the end of the regular season, which would value them as a 7-seed compared to their actual placement in the 8-9 game.
The Buckeyes also have a genuine game-wrecker in guard Bruce Thornton, who became the program's all-time leading scorer this season and leads the team with 20.2 points per game while shooting 55.8 percent from the floor and hitting nearly 40 percent of his three-point attempts. Thornton has also stepped up against top competition, averaging 29 points per game during a three-game stretch in mid-February against Michigan State, Virginia and Wisconsin, showcasing his ability to shine on the brightest stages in the sport.
Ohio State drew an 8-seed in the East Region, which gives them a coin flip matchup against TCU before a date with Duke in the Round of 32. Catching the Blue Devils before they can potentially get their injured stars (Patrick Ngongba and Caleb Foster) back provides an opportunity to cause chaos and advance deep into March.