College GameDay might be headed to Pittsburgh, but the game of the weekend is arguably in Athens, Ga., where the No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs welcome Arch Manning and the No. 10 Texas Longhorns to town in an SEC showdown with major conference and College Football Playoff implications. The winner stays very much alive for a spot in the SEC title game in Atlanta; the loser suddenly finds itself very much on the CFP bubble with just weeks to go until selection Sunday.
Entering the game, it feels like the smart money is all on Georgia. The Dawgs dug deep for late rallies against Ole Miss and Florida, and their win over Mississippi State last weekend may have been their most impressive to date, featuring nearly 600 yards of total offense. Kirby Smart's crew looked a bit wobbly to start the season, but make no mistake: This is still college football's final boss, and no matter what happens in September and October, they're as inevitable in this conference as death and taxes — especially between the hedges at Sanford Stadium, where they've lost just once in the last six years.
Ladd McConkey knows that better than anybody. Not only did he help the Dawgs capture back-to-back national titles in 2021 and 2022, but he feels the Georgia brotherhood every week in the NFL.
"I feel like every team I play has at least one or two Georgia guys on it," says McConkey, who's collabing with Dr. Pepper and the Pepper Portal fan experience for Georgia vs. Texas on Saturday in Athens. "So I’ll go up, say what’s up, check in on them." (He also made sure to know that, while he lost to Alabama three times while at Georgia, "we got it when it mattered most" in the 2022 national championship game.)
Combine that with how uninspiring Texas has been for much of the year, from the season-opening loss to Ohio State to the upset at Florida to nervy escapes against Kentucky, Texas and Vanderbilt — combined margin of victory: 13 points — and you'd be forgiven for treating the Longhorns like an afterthought in this spot. Heck, even Vegas would agree, with Georgia installed as a 5.5-point favorite at most books.
But take heed: The Dawgs overlook Texas at their own peril, and overconfidence might be the final ingredient in the Horns' upset recipe on Saturday.
Georgia can't afford to underestimate Texas
Start with the fact that Texas is coming off of arguably its most impressive performance of the season, a win over No. 14 Vanderbilt that was headed toward being a laugher until a furious late push by the Commodores. The defense was salty as ever, harassing erstwhile Heisman candidate Diego Pavia, while Steve Sarkisian's offense finally looked like we hoped it would over the summer en route to 328 yards and three passing touchdowns from Manning.
The battered skill corps is as healthy as it's been all year (though leading wideout Ryan Wingo will be playing through a thumb issue on Saturday), and Manning is looking more and more comfortable as the year goes on and he comes out the other side of what's been a baptism by fire. Georgia's run defense is as good as it gets, but their secondary has been uncharacteristically leaky, especially on passes at or near the line of scrimmage — a glaring red flag ahead of a matchup with Sarkisian, one of the country's preeminent screen designers. The Dawgs allowed 41 points to Tennessee, 35 points to Ole Miss and couldn't get off the field late against Alabama; why can't Texas move the ball successfully here?
Especially considering that the Horns have spent the last week resting up on a bye, getting healthy and donating all of their attention to game-planning for Georgia. The rest advantage is helpful enough on its own; giving Sark and Manning some extra time to prepare and dial up bespoke packages and play calls is a scary proposition. Not to mention that this Texas defense is the best the Dawgs have faced all year — up to seventh in ESPN's SP+ metric this week.
Going into Athens and getting a win, at night no less, is easier said than done. But the reality is that Georgia has been getting away with it for a while now, playing with their food before catching fire late to escape with wins. This isn't the invincible teams of just a few years ago, and Texas absolutely has the talent to pull the upset. The Dawgs are riding high right now, but that might be exactly where Texas wants them.