The Big Ten standings coming into Week 13 set up for an electric final two weeks of college football action. While Indiana and Ohio State are the clear favorites to earn bids to the Big Ten Championship Game, there are a dozen scenarios still in play. USC, Oregon and Michigan are lurking, each with the opportunity to upend the current conference hierarchy.
With five teams still alive in the race, tiebreakers could be the end-all, be-all to determine who heads to Indianapolis. Let's look at what each team needs to lock in their place.
Current Big Ten standings
Big Ten Standings | Conference Record | Overall Record |
|---|---|---|
1. Indiana Hoosiers | 8-0 | 11-0 |
2. Ohio State Buckeyes | 7-0 | 10-0 |
3. USC Trojans | 6-1 | 8-2 |
4. Oregon Ducks | 6-1 | 9-1 |
5. Michigan Wolverines | 6-1 | 8-2 |
6. Iowa Hawkeyes | 4-3 | 6-4 |
7. Washington Huskies | 4-3 | 7-3 |
8. Minnesota Golden Gophers | 4-3 | 6-4 |
9. Illinois Fighting Illini | 4-3 | 7-3 |
10. Nebraska Cornhuskers | 4-3 | 7-3 |
11. Northwestern Wildcats | 3-4 | 5-5 |
12. UCLA Bruins | 3-4 | 3-7 |
13. Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 2-5 | 5-5 |
14. Maryland Terrapins | 1-6 | 4-6 |
15. Penn State Nittany Lions | 1-6 | 4-6 |
16. Wisconsin Badgers | 1-6 | 3-7 |
17. Michigan State Spartans | 0-7 | 3-7 |
18. Purdue Boilermakers | 0-8 | 2-9 |
Big Ten tiebreaker scenarios for the 5 remaining contenders
Indiana Hoosiers
Remaining Schedule: at Purdue
It's very simple for Indiana: Win and you're in! That counts for the Big Ten title game and the College Football Playoff. There's a locked in spot for a 12-0 Hoosiers. Even so, a shock loss to Purdue wouldn't bury Indiana. At 8-1 in conference, they'd at worst tie with Ohio State, USC, Oregon or Michigan. They hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over Oregon but separating the other three would require deeper tiebreakers like record against common conference opponents.
So how does Indiana get left out of the Big Ten Championship Game? It would take a niche scenario of Indiana losing to Purdue and Michigan beating Ohio State. Either way, the winner of the Oregon-USC game would force a four-way tie of 8-1 teams. At that point, if the Ducks won, the conference opponent win percentage tiebreaker would take effect, putting Oregon and Michigan in the title game. Alternatively, USC beating Oregon would put them in with Michigan, Purdue as a common opponent dooming Indiana.
TL;DR Indiana fans should be rooting for Ohio State as much as their own team. There is no scenario the Hoosiers miss the title game if the Buckeyes win out.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Remaining Schedule: vs. Rutgers | at Michigan
Stop me if you've heard this one before: Win and you're in! It's the same deal for Ohio State. Wins over Rutgers and Michigan lock in their Big Ten title game berth and a CFP bid.
The trouble for Ohio State is they don't have many advantages in 8-1 tiebeakers. Whether Indiana loses to Purdue or you account for either result between USC and Oregon, the Buckeyes falter in a variety of categories. Like head-to-head with Michigan or record vs. common conference opponents or conference opponent win percentage for the others.
Losing to Rutgers might be better than losing to Michigan. The Buckeyes could lose to the Scarlett Knights while benefitting from USC beating Oregon to get in. A loss in the rivalry game by comparison almost always dooms Ohio State in terms of conference standings.
USC Trojans
Remaining Schedule: at Oregon | vs. UCLA
Oh look, our first "Win and you're in...maybe!" It's win and you're in because USC can't afford to lose and still head to Indianapolis the way Indiana and Ohio State could. They have to beat Oregon and UCLA. End of story.
Even then, the Trojans need a bit of help. Hence the very large MAYBE. Basically, Ohio State has to lose to Michigan. In a three-way tie with the Buckeyes and Wolverines, USC comes out on top based on conference opponent win percentage.
Oregon Ducks
Remaining Schedule: vs. USC | at Washington
Oregon is only going to get into the title game with an 8-1 record. Having already suffered a loss to Indiana, everything hinges on winning their final two games against USC and Washington while hoping Ohio State loses to Michigan. Like USC, they win the three-way tiebreaker with the Buckeyes and Wolverines because of conference opponent win percentage.
Michigan Wolverines
Remaining Schedule: at Maryland | vs. Ohio State
Michigan beating Ohio State changes a lot for just about every team in the Big Ten title race. But first, the Wolverines have to take care of business against Maryland. Finishing with just one loss in conference sets Michigan up to earn a spot in Indianapolis, but they don't control their own destiny.
Michigan can't get stuck in a three-way tie with Ohio State and Oregon or USC. They lose out on conference opponent win percentage. Funnily enough, they benefit more from a four-way tie with Indiana getting pulled into the mix with a loss to Purdue. In the four-way tie scenario, Michigan tops Ohio State on head-to-head and beats Indiana in record vs. common opponents. The Wolverines beat Purdue and lost to USC, a team Indiana didn't play in the regular season.
Iowa, Washington, Minnesota, Illinois and Nebraska are eliminated from Big Ten Championship contention
The top end of the Big Ten standings are mired in one-loss scenarios. The gap between those teams and the middle of the pack is large. Iowa, Washington, Minnesota, Illinois and Nebraska all have a 4-3 record in conference. A three-loss team isn't sniffing the conference title game this year.
Before the season started, Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon were clearly in another tier. The middle tier was a muddle of teams aspiring to climb that ladder, but it was uncertain which ones would do it. USC and Michigan have answered the call while the rest have been left in varying states of disappointment. There is still plenty of football left to determine which of those top tier teams comes through in the end.