CFP Playoff Picture after Oregon wins: Updated matchups, paths and stakes

The Ducks put Texas Tech on silent. Here’s how their path shapes up.
Oregon defensive back Brandon Finney Jr.
Oregon defensive back Brandon Finney Jr. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The No. 5 Oregon Ducks blanked the No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Orange Bowl on Thursday afternoon, winning 23-0. It was a dominant performance from the Oregon defense, making up for a less polished outing from the offense. Freshman Brandon Finney Jr. was the star of the show, intercepting Tech quarterback Behren Morton twice and jumping on a lost fumble for good measure.

Dante Moore, a potential top-10 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, completed 26-of-33 passes for 234 yards and an interception. Nothing special — again, Oregon’s defense carried them — but enough to keep Texas Tech at bay. Oregon now joins Miami among confirmed College Football Playoff semifinalists.

College Football Playoff bracket after Oregon beats Texas Tech

College Football Playoff bracket after Oregon beats Texas Tech
College Football Playoff bracket after Oregon beats Texas Tech | Michael Castillo, FanSided

Oregon won in unconventional fashion on New Year’s Day. Typically a team reliant on explosive offense — their 468.9 yards of total offense per game ranks ninth in college football — the Ducks struggled to generate chunk yardage against a stout Red Raiders defense. The Ducks averaged 39.2 points per game this season, a robust 16 more than they scored in their biggest win yet.

And yet, thanks to an incredible defensive performance, which saw Texas Tech out-physicaled and out-schemed, the Ducks cruised to victory. Morton took four sacks, turned it over twice, and almost lost a fumble for the Red Raiders. He was under pressure all night and Tech’s running backs averaged 2.6 yards per carry. There was simply zero momentum all night, except for a single extended drive late in the third quarter and early in the fourth quarter that saw the Red Raiders knocking on the end zone — only for Morton to toss his second pick.

The Red Raiders’ defense deserves credit for keeping Tech within striking distance for the majority of the game. Oregon’s offense was itself stymied, averaging just 1.4 yards per carry and 7.2 yards per pass attempt. If not for the turnovers, Tech probably stays in this game until the bitter end. Holding Dante Moore in check and silencing the Ducks’ RB room is no small feat. Texas Tech just needed something, really anything at all, from the offense. But ‘twas not meant to be.

Remaining quarterfinal matchups

DATE AND TIME

BOWL

MATCHUP

Jan. 1 at 4 PM E.T.

Rose Bowl

(9) Alabama vs. (1) Indiana

Jan. 1 at 8 PM E.T.

Sugar Bowl

(6) Ole Miss vs. (3) Georgia

Both of these games pack significant intrigue. Indiana will look to continue its undefeated season in a rain-soaked Rose Bowl Stadium against a three-loss Alabama squad with decades of history on its side. In the Sugar Bowl, UGA will face Ole Miss for the second time this season. The Bulldogs won 43-35, handing the Rebels their only loss of the season to date. Can Ole Miss exact revenge without Lane Kiffin, who’ll be watching from his cushy new office at LSU? Time will tell.

CFP semifinal matchups

DATE AND TIME

BOWL

MATCHUP

Jan. 8 at 7:30 PM E.T.

Fiesta Bowl

(10) Miami vs. (6) Ole Miss/(3) Georgia

Jan. 9 at 7:30 PM E.T.

Peach Bowl

(5) Oregon vs. (9) Alabama/(1) Indiana

If Oregon faces Alabama…

You can never count out Alabama, and a win over Indiana would make for a loud statement from the Crimson Tide. That said, the odds should favor Oregon, a more explosive and (typically) balanced offensive unit. Dante Moore over Ty Simpson is the consensus opinion for a reason, and Bama’s lack of a viable run game figures to bite them eventually. Indiana has the résumé and the record, but when rubber meets the road, you couldn’t be blamed for thinking Oregon might be the scariest team from the Big Ten.

The coaching matchup here is especially fun, though. Dan Lanning and Kalen DeBoer are two of the brightest offensive playcallers in the sport, so expect plenty of fireworks if these teams do meet a week from now.

If Oregon faces Indiana…

Well, Indiana beat Oregon head-to-head all the way back in October, 30-20. The Hoosiers then ran the gauntlet in the Big Ten and toppled Ohio State in the championship game. On paper, Indiana is very much the team to beat. But winning 16 straight games, as the Hoosiers must to reach the mountaintop, is exceedingly difficult and uncommon. Rematches can be a funny thing, and Oregon would have that extra bit of motivation on top of a potential path to the national title.

With Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore, this matchup might feature the two best quarterbacks in college football — and potentially the first two picks in the upcoming NFL Draft, depending on how the board falls. Both of these teams tend to put up numbers, and while Indiana probably beats Oregon ever so slightly in terms of offensive firepower, the Ducks’ defense proved its mettle on Thursday. They should give Mendoza, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, all he can handle.