Rose Bowl weather report could change everything for Alabama and Indiana

The college football semifinals began with a shocker on Wednesday night, as No. 10 Miami put a defensive beating on No. 2 Ohio State to dispatch the reigning champs. Now the rest of the CFP semifinals get underway, with a highly anticipated Rose Bowl matchup between No. 1 Indiana and No. 9 Alabama slated for 4 PM E.T. and 1 PM P.T.

This is arguably the most exciting showdown of the postseason to date — a surging, undefeated, almost Cinderella in the No. 1 spot, against the age-old powerhouse from Tuscaloosa. It's a competitive game on paper, but there's potential for some weirdness. The main reason? Well, the field looks like this:

Rose Bowl field soaked by heavy rains ahead of Indiana-Alabama

A flood warning was issued in Pasadena, California in the wee morning hours on New Year's Day. It will expire well before gametime, and the weather is expected to calm down before the 1pm PT kickoff. But the damage may already be done — not in terms of start time or quality of competition, just in terms of how messy the field is.

Anyone expecting a shootout on Thursday afternoon in SoCal may want to reconsider. The forecast, per The Weather Channel, still calls for a 10 percent chance of rain at 1pm, rising to 19 percent at 4pm. That could mean the sun peaks through the clouds and the rain skips the prestigious bowl game altogether. Or, it could mean an already-wet field stays wet. Only a light drizzle is needed at this point.

The National Weather Service warned of the potential for “rain and thunderstorms” before 4pm local time, with some storms capable of producing heavy rainfall. So beware: Indiana and Alabama are not fully in the clear, as thunderstorms can — in theory — delay a game.

In addition to the possibility of ongoing rain showers, Pasedena will have 3 MPH winds blowing south, with temperatures hovering in the mid-60s. That honestly sounds like ideal football weather, the rain notwithstanding. So it could be worse.

What does this mean for Indiana and Alabama?

Complications! A wet field generally means a wet football, which can cause some… issues. Most rainy games devolve into defensive rock fights, as it becomes difficult for quarterbacks to deliver a slick pigskin with the proper velocity and accuracy.

This is especially problematic for Indiana and Alabama, who rely on their QBs so extensively.

Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson led the SEC in pass attempts (457) and completions (293). Alabama’s run game has been uncharacteristically muted all season long, so it’s not an element of their game plan that Kalen DeBoer — himself an air-it-out style of playcaller — can seamlessly turn to.

On the other hand, Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza just won the Heisman Trophy. He led the Big Ten in yards per pass attempt (9.4). Mendoza has bit more of a dual-threat capacity than Simpson, but he’s not a running QB. This Hoosiers offense thrives on generating explosive plays and letting Mendoza’s arm carry them to wins. Asking Indiana to upend their typical game plan could lead to funkiness, especially against a stout Alabama defense.

So in short… it’s a funky wrinkle. Still expect both teams to do their darnedest to establish the pass, but in theory, Alabama and Indiana could end up playing extremely against the grain in this game, which adds to the uncertainty of an already mysterious matchup.

Who wins the Rose Bowl in the rain?

Indiana is a seven-point favorite with -253 odds, per Sportsline. So the Hoosiers come in as comfortable favorites, if not quite overwhelmingly. That makes all the sense in the world. Alabama has three losses, whereas Indiana went undefeated and capped their magical season with an upset of Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game.

It’s hard to win 15 straight games, which Indiana must do to capture the national title. But there’s a reason the odds are in their favor in this particular circumstance, and the rainy conditions should only aid them at the end of the day.

That’s not to say the rain helps Indiana. But it just might hurt Alabama more. Mendoza is the better QB, straight up. Simpson put together a phenomenal season in Tuscaloosa, but Mendoza is more nimble under pressure and more creative with his deliveries. A slick football will limit him a bit, but if we’re meant to trust one of these QBs more than the other in less-than-ideal circumstances, it’s Mendoza.

There are also the simple mechanics of both offenses. Indiana ranked 10th in D-I with 221.2 rushing yards per game. Missouri and Utah were the only Power Four schools ranked higher. Alabama, meanwhile, averaged only 109.9 rushing yards per game. Only LSU was worse in the SEC.

The Crimson Tide lean heavily on their lesser quarterback, whereas Indiana’s offense is incredibly balanced and explosive. If the weather limits both teams’ ability to be explosive, then Indiana has the means to grind it out in a way that Alabama simply does not.

Is Alabama capable of winning this game? Of course. It’s Alabama. But as things sit, knowing what we know about the weather, the smart bet is on Indiana.