College Football Playoff grievances: Which CFP bubble teams have a real gripe?

Nobody is ever going to be fully happy with the College Football Playoff rankings, especially because somebody has to be left out at the end of the day. But with one week remaining, there's a lot of shifting that could happen dependent on this weekend's results.

Let's evaluate the bubble teams and see which ones actually have a reason to be upset about potentially being left out.

The playoff format was altered slightly this year so that the teams ranked 1-12 aren't automatically inserted in the bracket. Conference champions are also not guaranteed a first-round bye either. So, based on Tuesday's rankings, two Big 12 teams — BYU and Utah — are the first two teams outside of the field and No. 24-ranked Tulane gets in as the 12-seed.

Which CFP bubble teams have a case against being left out of the bracket

No. 11 BYU

The Cougars are 10-1 and likely to face No. 5 Texas Tech in the Big 12 Conference Championship Game. All they'd have to do is win that game and guarantee themselves a bid in the bracket. A loss, however, opens them up to being excluded.

If BYU does, indeed, make it to the Big 12 title game at 11-1, a loss in Dallas would mean their only trip ups on the year would both have come at the hands of the Red Raiders. Why would the committee punish a team for dominating the rest of its schedule but falling to the eventual conference champs twice? Maybe because two of its early-season wins were against non-Power foes Portland State and East Carolina. It's tough to give BYU the edge over the next at-large team in the bracket, which would be No. 10 Alabama with four ranked wins this season to the Cougars' one.

Verdict: Case Dismissed

No. 13 Utah

Similar to BYU, the Utes' two losses on the year are to teams that are likely to walk away with the conference crown. Utah could also be one of those teams and just claim an auto-bid in the CFP, but it would need some serious tiebreaker help.

That's where their resume would come into play. Utah has two ranked wins, which is better than BYU, but it lost the head-to-head with the Cougars. Ten wins would be impressive but, again, there's no passing No. 10 Alabama unless they were to collapse against Auburn. Even then, it's difficult to justify it just by having Utah in the Big 12 title game. No three-loss team is getting in unless it's through an auto-bid.

Verdict: Case Dismissed

No. 14 Vanderbilt

Now we turn to an alternative SEC team, which could make things interesting. The Commodores have three ranked wins so far this year and could make it four if they take down No. 19 Tennessee on Saturday. They won't be vying for the SEC title but could actually make a case to pass Alabama if it were to fall to Auburn in the Iron Bowl.

The Crimson Tide would have three losses compared to Vanderbilt's two yet still have a head-to-head win to lean on. But Alabama's Week 1 loss to an unranked (and current train wreck) Florida State could still be enough of an eyesore to be detrimental to its resume. Just from conference affiliation alone, a two-loss Vanderbilt has a plausible path to being ranked ahead of Alabama, BYU and Utah by next week.

Verdict: Case Has Merit

No. 15 Michigan

"The Game" between the Wolverines and Buckeyes is essentially acting as the de facto Big Ten Championship play-in contest. Granted, Michigan would need Washington to upset Oregon to make it to Indianapolis if the were to beat Ohio State for a fifth straight year. Taking down the No. 1 team in the nation would certainly boost their resume regardless.

Here's the catch. Michigan has no other ranked wins this year. Again, you'd have to go back to the fact that Alabama has four and would need to lose to Auburn to even have the committee considering anyone else for that last at-large bid. So, the question becomes — How many ranked wins is a victory over the No. 1 team in the nation worth? Arguably, no more than two if we're going to entertain the idea. The only way the committee should seriously consider Michigan is if Oregon stumbles and the Wolverines just play in the Big Ten title game.

Verdict: Case Dismissed