College Football Rankings: Projected Week 13 AP Top 25
After a Saturday like that in college football, we all need to take a breath. The Georgia Bulldogs may have asserted their dominance against Texas when it was all said and done, but it was tight-gripping for most of the first 45 minutes of action. That happened to come after Alabama was upset at home in a white-knuckler against Oklahoma, after Texas A&M barely survived upset-minded South Carolina, and with teams like USC and Georgia Tech also just scraping by. And that's just the tip of the iceberg for how the AP Top 25 college football rankings are about to get turned upside down.
Not only was the SEC title race turned on its head, but the College Football Playoff picture was as well. The AP Top 25 rankings won't necessarily be a direct reflection of the CFP, but we'll continue to see some similarities that weren't there before. Having said that, let's just dive headfirst into the chaotic Week 12 we just witnessed with our projected AP Top 25.
Dropped out of rankings: Louisville Cardinals (19), Cincinnati Bearcats (22) Pittsburgh Panthers (23), South Florida Bulls (25)
No. 25-21
25. Houston Cougars
Willie Fritz and Houston may have not taken the field this week, but they'll be the beneficiaries of four teams at the back of the AP Top 25 rankings falling this week. Houston has quietly put together a quite impressive season, and while they aren't alive for the Big 12 Championship at this point, they've been more than good enough to be considered one of the 25 best teams in the country, at least based on their record and, to a lesser degree, the résumé.
24. North Texas Mean Green
For the first time in 66 years, North Texas should find its way into the AP Top 25. I mean, what reason would voters have to deny them of it other than just not keeping up with the Mean Green in the way that they should? UNT moved to 9-1 with another high-scoring win, this time over UAB, this week and have been one of the most electric offenses in the country whose only loss came at the hands of South Florida. They deserve their due, finally, and I believe they get it this week, even if not enough of it.
23. Missouri Tigers
We should all know that Missouri isn't the same team without Beau Pribula at quarterback. At the same time, the simple truth of the matter is that this is still a quality three-loss team that picked up another big win over Mississippi State. More importantly, they've shown that, even against lower teams in the SEC, that they can still hold their own despite the quarterback injuries. And with the chaos in the AP Top 25, that should be enough to crack back into the rankings.
22. Navy Midshipmen
While I would contend that Navy shouldn’t be higher than the Mean Green, if we’re projecting what AP voters are going to do, then that means the Midshipmen will be ahead of their American rivals. Make no mistake, Navy delivered an awesome performance to knock off USF on Saturday, but it’s the profile of that game that will do more work for this team in the rankings than their performance on the field. Even still, give Navy its due as Brian Newberry’s team is still very much alive to win the AAC title.
21. James Madison Dukes
With chaos reigning in The American, James Madison has to absolutely love the position that they’re in, especially with the dominant brand of football the Dukes put on display this week. Despite being in a rivalry matchup with App State, JMU showed no signs of nerves or anything close as they dominated the matchup from start to finish for a blowout victory in Harrisonburg. If they stay rolling to the degree they are, they could very well find themselves in the CFB Playoff.
No. 20-16
20. Tennessee Volunteers
Not that we expected anything different from Tennessee, but the Vols put the work on New Mexico State. Having said that, the 42-9 victory wasn’t without some signs for caution when it comes to this team. Joey Aguilar was less than stellar with two picks thrown on the day, but the run game and the defense saved him. The Playoff is likely a pipe dream — if even that — for Josh Heupel and his team at this point, but they’ll need to outlast rival Vanderbilt to finish the season at 9-3, which would be a helluva year given the turmoil in the offseason.
19. Virginia Cavaliers
It wasn’t out of the realm of possibility that the wheels would fall off Virginia, particularly with a tough matchup in Week 12 against a somehow-still-alive-to-win-the-ACC Duke. Getting Chandler Morris back under center was obviously massively important for the Hoos in this one, though, as he opened up the offense to put a shellacking on Manny Diaz’s team. Virginia still controls its ACC destiny, and this was a crucial win for that to be the case.
18. Michigan Wolverines
By all accounts, Michigan might’ve gotten away with one on Saturday as they went on the road to face pesky Northwestern. At the same time, though, most of that felt quite self-inflicted. If the Wolverines hadn’t turned the ball over three times, they might’ve won by multiple scores. Instead, they needed a late game-winning field goal to get the job done. This really comes back to my longtime read on this team, which is that the floor is high, but the ceiling is also dangerously low right now.
17. USC Trojans
It certainly felt like we were at Kinnick on Saturday as Los Angeles was a wet, sloppy ground for USC playing host to Iowa. Because of that, I’m more impressed with how the Trojans acquitted themselves in such an environment than I otherwise would’ve been. Not only did Jayden Maiava and the offense pull themselves up by their bootstraps after a rough start, but the defense was stellar down the stretch to push USC to a win and to keep their CFP hopes alive.
16. Texas Longhorns
Ultimately, Texas played better than the final score will show against Georgia — at the same time, that doesn't really matter, does it? This was essentially a must-win game for the Longhorns, and they came up short. Steve Sarkisian was out-coached, Arch Manning was outplayed, and Texas just couldn't get it done in Athens. While they have one more huge opportunity to prove themselves against Texas A&M in Week 14, even a win there might still not be enough to make the Playoff at this point with three losses now, even if two came against Top 5 teams.
No. 15-11
15. Miami Hurricanes
Miami made some waves through no fault of its own midweek when the selection committee slotted them ahead of Georgia Tech in the CFP rankings. That being said, the Canes looked the part in a complete dismantling of NC State on Saturday. While the path to the ACC Championship Game is still a difficult one for The U at this point, their hopes of getting an at-large berth are still alive if they finish the regular season with two losses.
14. Utah Utes
For the rest of the season, Utah is going to feel like the ultimate "missed opportunity" team. Had they been able to get a win over just one of BYU or Texas Tech this season, they have the talent to win the Big 12 and represent the conference in the CFP. Instead, they're going to keep playing behind the 8-ball in that regard, which is going to create a fascinating scenario depending on how much more chaos we get in the regular season and the potential for an at-large Playoff berth.
13. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
By the tip of their stinger, the Yellow Jackets survived what would’ve been, unobjectively, the biggest upset of Week 12 as Boston College gave Georgia Tech everything that they could possibly handle in Chestnut Hill. Much like the rest of the ACC, I continue to be concerned about the Jackets, but not about the makeup of Haynes King, Brent Key and this team. They are warriors of the highest order, and much like on Saturday, they can’t be counted out until the final whistle.
12. Vanderbilt Commodores
While there was mass chaos and huge ramifications throughout the SEC on Saturday, Vanderbilt was largely immune to it with the Commodores on a bye in Week 12. Vandy still holds an outside shot of earning a CFP berth, perhaps even more likely than their chances of getting a spot in the SEC Championship Game. Having said that, it won’t be an easy plight for the Dores to win out, however, especially with the season finale against Tennessee.
11. BYU Cougars (Still Playing vs. TCU)
After losing their perfect season by getting blown out against Texas Tech last week, BYU was back for some late-night action on Saturday. The Cougars have not been a perfect team even when their record was so. At the same time, Bear Bachmeier is a certified gamer and the team is working under one of the best coaches in the country, Kalani Sataki. That’s enough for this team to keep persevering, and anyone writing them off from getting to Arlington still is a pure fool.
No. 10-9
10. Alabama Crimson Tide
Some people are going to argue with this sentiment, but Alabama got thoroughly exposed on Saturday in the upset loss at home to Oklahoma, Kalen DeBoer’s second straight loss to the Sooners. Yes, it was a two-point game, yes they outgained OU, and yes the turnovers killed them. However, all of that can be traced back to the Tide’s inability to run the football. While Ty Simpson has been able to overcome that more often than not this season, that’s a much taller task against the best teams and defenses in college football.
Alabama averaged just 2.4 yards per carry in the loss and, while Simpson was still able to attack through the air, the ineffectiveness of the run game allowed the Sooners to play to try and create disruption in the passing game, which it did just enough to get the win. Make no mistake, this is a flaw that’s being exposed, but the Crimosn Tide are still good enough to compete for a national championship. This, however, was undeniably a roadblock and, hopefully, a wake-up call.
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Despite Pitt being ranked in both the AP Top 25 and the College Football Playoff rankings, there was a crashing sense that would all come crumbling down against Notre Dame, by far the toughest team on their schedule. And sure enough, that became evident right away as the Fighting Irish flexed their physical dominance on both sides of the ball from the opening kickoff to the final whistle.
While there are warranted questions about Notre Dame’s strength of schedule, they’re also playing their best football of the season leading up to the College Football Playoff. And make no mistake, after getting past Pitt, it looks like Marcus Freeman and his team are going to cakewalk into the 12-team bracket. However, they also might be more dangerous than people are going to give them credit for, especially with maybe the most bankable rushing attack in the sport.
No. 8-7
8. Oklahoma Sooners
Just like that, Oklahoma is alive and well to potentially make the College Football Playoff. Brent Venables and his group were the first team out in the projected bracket based on the latest rankings, but the Sooners upending Alabama put a rocket on their postseason stock. While winning the SEC may be impossible at this point, their odds to make the 12-team field now sit above 50% after the big victory over the Crimson Tide.
Perhaps what was most impressive (and telling) from the Sooners was that they didn’t even need a potent offensive performance from John Mateer in order to pick up a win on the road against a Top 5 team. That’s obviously a testament to the worthily vaunted Oklahoma defense that caused problems and created havoc, but it’s also a good sign that OU can handle business in multiple ways against just about any team.
7. Oregon Ducks
Though I’ve been plenty critical of Oregon throughout the course of the season, they deserve plenty of credit for being dominant on Friday night in a true trap game. Yes, Minnesota is far from the class of the Big Ten. However, with this game nestled between huge matchups against Iowa, USC, and rival Washington, that the Ducks handled business as emphatically as they were able to speaks to the toughness and talent of this group.
While Dante Moore continues to play at a high level, what’s starting to win me over a bit with Oregon right now is the strength of the run game. They have a blend of experience, talent and depth that might be unmatched in the rest of the country, and it allows them to throw one punch after another on the ground and control games. How that works against the best defenses they’re still to face, I’m not sure. But it does look dangerous at this current juncture.
No. 6-5
6. Ole Miss Rebels
Say what you will about the fact that Ole Miss under Lane Kiffin has made an unfortunate habit of playing lesser competition much closer than anyone in Oxford would like, it means something that the Rebels fell into that old pattern and still managed to survive it on Saturday night against Florida. The defense was undeniably sloppy, especially in the first half, but Trinidad Chambliss and Company kept them in the game for as long as possible until the defense finally tightened up and the Rebs were able to pull away.
Now, Ole Miss is sitting in a great spot. While they still have the always hectic Egg Bowl on the horizon for their final game of the regular season, they'll be heavy favorites in that game and should be able to win. Should that happen, while it might be somewhat of a longshot for this team to make the SEC title game, they are nearing lock status to make the College Football Playoff.
5. Texas Tech Red Raiders
If there was ever any concern about a letdown game from Texas Tech against a spirited UCF group on Saturday on the heels of the Red Raiders’ monster win over BYU a week ago, those worries were wiped away almost immediately in the noon slate. Before we were even six minutes into the action, the Red Raiders had a 14-0 lead and they absolutely never looked back, giving up only a weird safety before a garbage time TD from the Knights.
Texas Tech isn’t just one of the best defensive teams in the Big 12 — they’re one of the best in the country. Having said that, Joey McGuire’s team will go as far as Behren Morton and the offense take them. They are far from perfect on that side of the ball, but they are given quite the margin for error with the strength of the defense this season.
No. 4-3
4. Georgia Bulldogs
Just when you thought things were going to get scary for Kirby Smart and Georgia against Texas when the Longhorns cut the lead to four points, the Dawgs showed why they're still a more than viable national championship caliber team. Smart showed his massive guts by following a big score with an onside kick, which UGA recovered, and then took down the field to take full control of the game and effectively seal the win.
Gunner Stockton continues to impress, especially late in games, with his moxie and playmaking as both a runner and passer. But the biggest development for the Dawgs was the defense showing up the way it did in this game, not to mention the receiving corps and run game having come into their own over the past few weeks. This team is going to be in the mix for a natty, even if they still need help to make it to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game.
3. Texas A&M Aggies
To quote Chris Martin, nobody said it was easy — and Texas A&M learned that the hard way in the SEC on Saturday as South Carolina had the Aggies and Mike Elko, fresh off of inking his new extension, on the brink of absolute disaster. A&M was trailing 30-3 going into halftime in a couple of quarters wherein they couldn’t get of their own way on either side of the ball. However, they deserve full credit, especially Marcel Reed, for clawing out of that hole.
At the same time, this all does raise questions about the Aggies. All of their wins in SEC play to this point have come against teams in the bottom half of the league standings, and South Carolina hasn’t been their only close or hairy win in that mix. At the same time, they’ve found a way to win. However, this narrow victory all but certainly guarantees that the conversation of if Texas A&M deserves to be in conversation for No. 1 should now subside.
No. 2-1
2. Indiana Hoosiers
When Wisconsin had the Hoosiers tied at 7-7 and then Indiana led just 10-7 going into halftime, there had to be a right many people worried that this team might be running out of gas based on the scare against Penn State last week leading into this start. However, Curt Cignetti must’ve had the right secret stuff to give his players in the locker room, because Indiana came out looking like the team we expect them to be in the second half.
Fernando Mendoza came out firing, even with Elijah Sarratt still sidelined, and the defense clamped down massively to outscore the Badgers 21-0 in the second half and run away with a win. Obviously, if Indiana plays like they did in the first half against the likes of Ohio State in the Big Ten title game or, even worse, in the College Football Playoff, it could end poorly for them. But the ceiling for this group remains substantially higher than it was a year ago.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
Not that we should've expected anything different — especially with UCLA ruling out quarterback Nico Iamaleava for Saturday night's game — but Ohio State thoroughly steamrolled the Bruins to stay perfect on the season. What was odd, however, was that the Buckeyes did so seemingly never getting out of first gear. Julian Sayin threw 31 times, but only for 184 yards. But the run game was cooking and the Buckeyes used that to just keep rolling in this one.
The unfortunate truth with OSU at this point, though, is that we may not know what this team until they face rival Michigan in The Game, or perhaps not even until the Big Ten Championship Game. There's no questioning the talent and that they've dominated lesser competition, but we've largely only seen the Buckeyes do exactly that. I still believe they can hold their own, but there is reason to harbor some doubt about the Buckeyes.