Making the case for two Big 12 teams in the College Football Playoff

Whether you like it or not, the SEC is not guaranteed to get more than four teams into the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket. It may still happen, but the Big Ten and Big 12 have their own highly qualified candidates that could join their respective conference champions.

Let's focus in on the Big 12 for now, as that's the only other power conference (outside the Big Ten) with a realistic shot of sending a second team. The ACC has self-destructed to an extent where only its champ is going to qualify, and at this point it seems like nobody wants to win the conference.

After Tuesday's reveal of the latest College Football Playoff rankings, the bracket is coming more and more into focus. This week, the Big 12 only has its projected champion — Texas Tech — included as the No. 5 seed. BYU and Utah — the No. 11 and No. 12 teams on the list, respectively — are the first two teams on the outside looking in.

That should signal to every fan that the committee is more than willing to give the Big 12 a second bid, but only if the conditions are ripe.

The two scenarios where the Big 12 gets two bids to the CFP

While the Big 12 is deserving of two bids with Texas Tech and BYU looking poised to have a rematch in Dallas at the conference title game, a potential second Playoff will have to replace another at-large team currently projected in the bracket.

There are only two teams that fit the bill for potentially dropping out of the committee's good graces in the final two weeks of the year: No. 7 Oregon (9-1) and No. 10 Alabama (8-2). The latter is the more likely target, but there actually needs to be an upset in the Big 12 for that to happen.

Let's say Alabama finishes out the year 10-2 but misses the SEC Championship Game because Texas A&M and Georgia (or Ole Miss) qualify instead. Texas Tech and BYU will have an extra game to play in December to prove to the committee that the loser is worthy of inclusion via the eye test. But all things considered, the Cougars need to come out on top to claim the conference's auto-bid — and then force the committee to justify dropping a team like Texas Tech from No. 5 all the way outside the bracket.

When you compare resumes, Alabama has more ranked wins (4), yet Texas Tech's losses actually give it the edge. The Red Raiders' only loss to date is against now-No.25 Arizona State, the 2024 Big 12 champion, and that came without starting QB Behren Morton. Tech defeated a top-10 BYU team not too long ago, and falling to the Cougars this time in the conference title game wouldn't be a bad loss by any stretch.

The Crimson Tide, on the other hand, lost to a good Oklahoma team (now No. 8) but also to a Florida State squad which has crashed and burned this year. That one early slip-up could be enough to find them sitting at No. 11 once all is said and done.

Before anyone goes and complains about the SEC schedule being so much harder than the Big 12, nobody is challenging that. But losing to Florida State already set the Crimson Tide back a good bit during the year and padding your resume with Eastern Illinois in Week 13 before a lackluster Iron Bowl matchup isn't going to help, especially with no championship game to play in.

The committee likes to reward conference championship performances, as seen with Clemson and SMU last year in the ACC. This would be the same exact situation where both Texas Tech and BYU are deserving of participating in the Playoff based on their regular season resumes and vying for a conference title.