We have an idea of which teams have just about secured their spot in the College Football Playoff. Sure, there’s a month left in the season for chaos to ensue and flip the current field upside down, but there are quite a few teams that already look like they’re one foot in the door of this year’s College Football Playoff.
Ole Miss probably has the best odds to get in outside the top four. Though they do have a conference loss to Georgia, being ranked sixth, they don’t have to worry about making the SEC title game to get in. As long as they win out, they’re in. That said, it doesn’t mean we trust them to actually go on a deep playoff run, especially if they do have to play in the first round.
They aren’t the only suspect team either. Here are three teams we shouldn’t trust on a playoff run, despite the fact that they look like CFP locks after the first College Football Playoff rankings were released.
Ole Miss Rebels
I want to trust Ole Miss so badly this year, I just don’t feel like they’re the strongest team in the field. If they have to play in the first round, they could have a tough path through the field. As of now, if Ole Miss were to win round one against Virginia, they’d have Texas A&M next. If they were to win that, it would be one of Indiana, BYU or Notre Dame. That’s not a favorable path just to reach the CFP semifinals.
Ole Miss’ only loss is to Georgia, which isn’t a bad loss, but they haven’t really had a tough schedule otherwise. Oklahoma and LSU weren’t easy games by any means, but outside of those two and Georgia, the Rebels just haven’t really been tested this year. That doesn’t mean much, and ending the year with The Citadel, Florida and Mississippi State doesn’t exactly set them up for playoff success.
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M has been one of the best teams in college football this year, but like Georgia Tech, it just feels like that unexpected loss is coming sooner rather than later. The Aggies have to play South Carolina, a team that stumped them last season, Missouri and Texas and it just feels like one of those will be a loss. If they drop a regular season game, it would mean they’d most likely have to play a first round game.
If they win out, including the SEC title, a first round bye could halt their hot streak and they could get bounced in the first round. Last year not a single team won that had a first round bye so that’s a bad omen for a team that’s had a really strong season. I think they have a chance to be a dangerous team in the playoffs, but my gut is telling me they’ll fall short of their expectations.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame shouldn’t even be in the College Football Playoff rankings, let alone in the field with a chance to return for the second straight season. Yes, they did finish runner-up in 2024 after a miraculous playoff run, but then they followed that up with two-straight losses to start the year. They’re probably the only team that’s gotten the benefit of the doubt when they didn’t deserve it. That’s why I don’t trust Notre Dame this year.
Their schedule has been weak and their best win is against an inconsistent USC team. Notre Dame is currently slotted to play BYU in its opening round game and I wouldn’t be the least bit shocked to see them get beat. And if they were to make it out of the first round, Indiana would get the best revenge possible in the next round.
Indiana has been whooping teams left and right with their closest margins of victory at five points against Iowa and then 10 points in a road win over Oregon. This Notre Dame team isn’t ready for this Indiana team and if the playoff were to start this weekend, the Fighting Irish’s playoff run wouldn’t make it past the quarterfinals.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama looked human against South Carolina, needing a touchdown in the final seconds to get the win. To me, that looks like a team that isn’t quite ready to go on a playoff run. When you look at what Ohio State and Indiana have done this year, good teams dominate in the games they’re supposed to. South Carolina wasn’t supposed to be a close game and those type of games that sneak up on you could foreshadow a glum future, in this case, in the CFP.
Ty Simpson has been on a heater as a favorite to win the Heisman Trophy and the Crimson Tide have benefitted from that. But with LSU, Oklahoma and Auburn left to play, one of those games could stump the Crimson Tide. If it does, it would prove how flawed the Tide are this year and could mean they’re not quite ready for a deep playoff run.
This is a big season for Kalen DeBoer. He was sent to the slaughterhouse after missing the CFP last year and then ending the season with a loss to Michigan; a Week 1 loss to Florida State exacerbated Bama fans’ hate. Though things have turned around, he has to go on a deep run to regain faith with the Tide faithful. All they did was win with Saban so losing this much over two seasons – I know, five losses in two years is horrible – just adds to the pressure on him.