NFL Honors predictions: Projecting the winners and a snub for each category

As the 2024 season enters its penultimate chapter, only four teams remain standing. For the remaining 28 teams, the campaign ended in frustration and disappointment. Two more teams will experience heartache on Sunday, when the conference championships determine which two teams will advance to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans.

While only one team will finish the season with champagne and confetti showers, individual players will still be recognized for their efforts. While plenty of players had heroic moments, the league’s best players displayed consistency through the peaks and valleys of the grueling 17-game campaign. Those players will see their names etched into NFL history.

Finalists for The Associated Press' 2024 NFL awards were announced on Thursday. The NFL Honors awards ceremony, which debuted in 2012, will present the winners and introduce the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2025. The 14th annual NFL Honors awards ceremony will take place on Thursday, Feb. 6, at Saenger Theater in New Orleans, La., prior to Super Bowl LIX.

The process for selecting the winners has been far from perfect, and the revamped voting system hasn’t fixed many of its flaws. Here’s a look at the players who are likely to earn the accolades — and the ones who should have been considered.

AP Most Valuable Player

Prediction: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills QB
Finalist snub: ---

The NFL Most Valuable Player award is the most coveted individual accolade any player can earn. Players struggled to separate themselves for the distinction last season, but several stars proved themselves worthy of earning the award in 2024.

Running back Saquon Barkley became just the ninth player in NFL history to surpass 2,000 rushing yards in a single season, while Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow led all quarterbacks in nearly every major statistical category. Barkley is arguably most deserving, but the quarterback-centric award is likely out of the running back’s reach. In the Super Bowl era, only 13 non-quarterbacks have earned the NFL Most Valuable Player award. Burrow will fall out of consideration after failing to carry his team to a playoff berth.

The race will come down to Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson or Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. The race came down to a photo finish, but Allen ultimately proved to do more with less talent around him.

Finalists:

• Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills QB
• Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles RB
• Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals QB
• Jared Goff, Detroit Lions QB
• Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens QB

AP Defensive Player of the Year

Prediction: Patrick Surtain II, Denver Broncos CB
Finalist snub: Kerby Joseph, Detroit Lions S

Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt’s cold streak at the end of the season may have caused the award to slip out of his grasp. Instead, Denver Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II could become the first defensive back to win Defensive Player of the Year since 2019.

Despite covering the opponent’s top wideout throughout the entire regular season, Surtain allowed just 35 receptions for 306 receiving yards, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He finished the season with four interceptions, including one that he returned for a 100-yard touchdown in Week 5.

Detroit Lions safety Kerby Joseph helped keep his team’s injury-riddled defense afloat throughout the season, but he wasn’t named a finalist. Joseph recorded a league-high nine interceptions to go along with 83 tackles and 12 pass breakups. His reputation as a “dirty” player may have cost him some votes, but that shouldn’t factor into the award.

Finalists:

• Zack Baun, Philadelphia Eagles LB
• Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns DE
• Trey Hendrickson, Cincinnati Bengals DE
• Patrick Surtain II, Denver Broncos CB
• T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers LB

AP Offensive Player of the Year

Prediction: Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles RB
Finalist snub: Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders TE

Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley thrived in his first season with an adequate offensive line. He became just the ninth player in NFL history to surpass 2,000 rushing yards in a single season, and he had an opportunity to break the single-season rushing record if the Eagles hadn’t rested their starters in Week 18.

Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers had a sensational rookie season, but he was left off the list of finalists. No tight end has ever won Offensive Player of the Year, and only running back Earl Campbell won as a rookie. Still, Bowers was deserving of being named a finalist. Bowers finished with the third-most receptions (112) in the league while recording 1,194 yards and five touchdowns. Those are impressive numbers, especially on a struggling offense.

Finalists:

• Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles RB
• Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals QB
• Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals WR
• Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens RB
• Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens QB

AP Offensive Rookie of the Year

Prediction: Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders QB
Finalist snub: Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB

Several rookies enjoyed historic success during the 2024 season, but none made history quite like Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

The LSU product broke the NFL's rookie records for completion percentage (69.0%) and rushing yards (891) while leading the Commanders to a 12-5 record. Daniels became just the fourth rookie quarterback in NFL history to win multiple playoff games and brought Washington to their first NFC Championship Game in 33 seasons. He can further cement his place in the record books on Sunday — no rookie quarterback has won more than two playoff games or reached the Super Bowl.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving was not named a finalist despite leading all ball carriers with 4.03 yards after contact per rush attempt. Irving quickly took over Tampa Bay’s backfield and finished with 207 carries for 1,122 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 5.4 yards per carry. He also added 392 receiving yards on 47 receptions. 

Irving finished the season with the highest PFF grade (90.6) among all rookies. The snub may have to do with Irving’s draft position. While all finalists were first-round selections, the Oregon running back wasn’t picked until the fourth round. It also doesn’t help that he plays for a small-market team, which often results in less recognition and fewer accolades.

Finalists:

• Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders TE
• Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders QB
• Malik Nabers, New York Giants WR
• Bo Nix, Denver Broncos QB
• Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars WR

AP Defensive Rookie of the Year

Prediction: Jared Verse, Los Angeles Rams DE
Finalist snub: Edgerrin Cooper, Green Bay Packers LB

Los Angeles Rams edge rusher Jared Verse was a dominant force in his rookie season. He finished with 41 tackles, six sacks, two forced fumbles, and 77 total pressures from 484 pass-rushing snaps. Verse should easily run away with the honor this season.

Green Bay Packers linebacker Edgerrin Cooper was named Defensive Rookie of the Week in Week 8 and Week 15, and he earned Defensive Rookie of the Month in December. Yet, he didn’t qualify as a finalist for the annual honor. In 14 games, Cooper generated 87 tackles, 3.5 sacks, a forced fumble, an interception, and 11 pressures. He finished his first NFL season with the second-highest PFF grade among all defensive rookies.

Finalists:

• Cooper DeJean, Philadelphia Eagles CB
• Braden Fiske, Los Angeles Rams DE
• Quinyon Mitchell, Philadelphia Eagles CB
• Chop Robinson, Miami Dolphins LB
• Jared Verse, Los Angeles Rams LB

AP Comeback Player of the Year

Prediction: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals QB
Finalist snub: Cam Heyward, Pittsburgh Steelers DT

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold had a remarkable comeback after being tossed aside as a journeyman backup, but he wasn’t returning from an injury. Instead, the award will likely go to Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, who missed seven games with a wrist injury that continued to bother him at the start of the 2024 season. Burrow finished with the rare quarterback triple-crown — he led the league in completions (460), passing yards (4,918) and passing touchdowns (43).

Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackle Cam Heyward was deserving of being a finalist after having groin surgery in the offseason. There was skepticism about his ability to return to form, especially at age 35, but he proved to be a dominant force. Hayward was named a first-team All-Pro after leading all defensive tackles with 71 tackles. He recorded eight sacks, 12 tackles for loss and 11 pass deflections. 

Finalists:

• Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals QB
• Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings QB
• J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers RB
• Christian Gonzalez, New England Patriots CB
• Damar Hamlin, Buffalo Bills S

AP Coach of the Year

Prediction: Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions HC
Finalist snub: Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles Chargers HC

Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell was mocked when he mentioned biting off kneecaps during his introductory press conference. There’s not much to laugh about now. Despite being ravaged by injuries, Campbell led the resilient Lions to a 15-2 record and the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh was notably left off the list of finalists. Harbaugh was hired after Los Angeles finished the 2023 season with a 5-12 record. In his first year with the team, Harbaugh led the Chargers to an 11-6 record and a playoff appearance, despite few notable changes to the roster.

Finalists:

• Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions HC
• Kevin O'Connell, Minnesota Vikings HC
• Sean Payton, Denver Broncos HC
• Dan Quinn, Washington Commanders HC
• Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs HC

AP Assistant Coach of the Year

Prediction: Ben Johnson, Detroit Lions OC
Finalist snub: Kliff Kingsbury, Washington Commanders OC

Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson crafted the league’s most creative offensive attack, and Detroit finished as the top-scoring offense in the NFL. Along with a dominant running game, Johnson mixed trick plays that never seemed to fail. The Lions scored touchdowns on hook-and-ladder plays, passes from their wide receiver or running back, and receptions from their offensive linemen.

The Commanders had a remarkable season, but offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury was not named a finalist. Kingsbury helped develop Daniels, who produced the best rookie season by any quarterback in NFL history. The Commanders play-caller slowly opened up the playbook for Daniels with a well-planned conservative approach, and he leaned into the Heisman Trophy winner’s strengths. Washington has thrived by utilizing Daniels’ deep accuracy and mobility along with Kingsbury’s quick-game staples.

Finalists:

• Joe Brady, Buffalo Bills OC
• Vic Fangio, Philadelphia Eagles DC
• Brian Flores, Minnesota Vikings DC
• Aaron Glenn, Detroit Lions DC
• Ben Johnson, Detroit Lions OC