NFL Rumors: Predicting the 7-10 head coach openings at end of 2024 season

NFL head coaches rarely ever have the luxury of job security. Bill Belichick authored six Super Bowl championships and 19 winning seasons in his first 22 seasons with the New England Patriots, but he was still shown the door after two consecutive losing seasons. In a league where that was possible, it’s hard to argue that any coach should feel comfortable with their status.

Head coaching changes rarely end with positive outcomes, especially since it often results in instability. Of the eight new head coaches hired last season, only three — Jim Harbaugh, Dan Quinn and Raheem Morris — currently hold a winning record.

For better or worse, the offseason will bring significant coaching turnover.  On “Black Monday” — the first Monday after the end of each regular season — over half a dozen coaching staffs will have their titles revoked. With only 32 head coaching jobs available, the competition for those positions is fierce and patience is incredibly thin.

As the league heads into the final stretch of the 2024 regular season, potential vacancies are becoming clearer. During an appearance on “The Dan Patrick Show,” Albert Breer predicted that the league will see at least seven to 10 head coaching openings.  

“We already have two,” Breer said. “We have the Saints and the Jets. I think we can agree the [Jaguars] are sort of fait accompli, right? So that’s three. Dallas looks like it’s going that way, so that’s four. So now you only need three more.”

Here’s a closer look at seven teams that are most likely to make a coaching change in the upcoming offseason.

1. New York Jets

Current head coach: Jeff Ulbrich (interim)

The New York Jets should be avoided by every head coaching candidate. Recent reports have painted Jets owner Woody Johnson as an overbearing presence.  Johnson reportedly wanted to bench quarterback Aaron Rodgers after Week 4, fired head coach Robert Saleh after Week 5 and removed powerless general manager from his position after Week 11. Jets interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich has managed to win just one of seven games, so it’s unlikely he holds onto the position after this season.

2. New Orleans Saints

Current head coach: Darren Rizzi (interim)

The New Orleans Saints looked dominant in the opening two games of the season. New Orleans outscored their opponents by a combined 62 points in those two contests, but head coach Dennis Allen was fired after losing the next seven games. Special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi was named interim head coach, and he’s made his case for the role with two consecutive wins. Still, ownership could be persuaded to hire one of the many available coaches who have far more accolades and much stronger résumés.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars

Current head coach: Doug Pederson

Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson was asked to provide disaster relief for the train wreck caused by disgraced coach Urban Meyer. Pederson’s first season was a valiant effort. He led the Jaguars to a AFC South division title with a 9-8 record and even secured a playoff win. 

Since then, the Jaguars have shown no signs of growth. Although Pederson led the Jaguars to a winning record in two consecutive seasons, nine-win seasons aren’t as impressive in the league’s least competitive division. In 2024, the team was well on its way to a losing record long before their franchise quarterback suffered an injury. 

Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke certainly hasn’t helped, but the franchise needs to establish long-term coaching stability for quarterback Trevor Lawrence before it’s too late. 

4. Dallas Cowboys

Current head coach: Mike McCarthy

As long as you stop paying attention after the regular season, the Dallas Cowboys have been one of the best teams in the NFL under head coach Mike McCarthy. Since McCarthy was hired in 2020, Dallas put together three consecutive 12-win seasons. Unfortunately, all of that regular season success has only translated into one playoff win and three incredibly disappointing losses.

McCarthy has become the modern iteration of former head coach Marvin Lewis, who once led the Cincinnati Bengals to five consecutive playoff appearances and five consecutive playoff losses.

McCarthy’s history of regular season success and postseason failure traces back to his days with the Green Bay Packers. Now, the embattled head coach is on the last year of his contract, and he’s unlikely to get an extension after a disastrous 2024 season.

5. Chicago Bears

Current head coach: Matt Eberflus

When asked if Chicago Bears head coach Matt Eberflus had lost the team, wide receiver D.J. Moore said, “I want to say no.” That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement. 

Caleb Williams hasn’t been the generational prospect he was expected to be when the Bears selected him with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but Eberflus hasn’t made it easy. 

The team’s poor discipline and coaching was on full display during Chicago’s overtime possession in Week 12. After Williams took an unnecessary sack on second down, neither the coach nor the quarterback called a timeout to avoid a delay of game penalty before third down. Chicago shot themselves in the foot once again and dropped their fifth consecutive game. Now, Williams will be the team’s third consecutive first-round quarterback to experience coaching instability after his rookie season.

6. New York Giants

Current head coach: Brian Daboll

New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll was named the 2022 NFL Coach of the Year after leading the team to a 9-7-1 record and a playoff win over the Minnesota Vikings. Since then, the results have been underwhelming. The Giants finished the 2023 season with a 6-11 record, and they’re potentially barreling towards last place in the standings this season. It’s difficult to produce a winning team without a quality quarterback. General manager Joe Schoen likely deserves most of the blame, but Daboll may pay the price regardless.

7. Las Vegas Raiders

Current head coach: Antonio Pierce

Whenever a team holds an impromptu meeting, the season probably isn’t going well. The Las Vegas Raiders have held one in consecutive seasons now, and Antonio Pierce was named head coach after the last meeting resulted in Josh McDaniels’ firing. So far, the state of the team hasn’t gotten any better.

Pierce made sweeping changes to the offensive coaching staff, but the team’s losing streak has extended to six games. After quarterback Gardner Minshew’s season-ending collarbone injury, that losing streak is likely to continue. The Raiders are clearly trending in the wrong direction, and even the players are complaining about the coaching staff’s lack of discipline. 

Other candidates: Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts