2026 NFL Draft: 10 college football stars who played their way out of the first round

More than a few early top prospects for the 2026 draft saw their stock fall dramatically this year.
2025 Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl - Clemson v Penn State
2025 Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl - Clemson v Penn State | Evan Bernstein/GettyImages

We are one step away from officially being in the college football offseason. The Indiana Hoosiers and Miami Hurricanes are facing off in one of the more improbable College Football Championship Games in a long time. Then, teams look forward. Players look forward. Hundreds are going to go pro, while hundreds of others join the transfer portal. It will be an offseason of change across college football, just as this past season changed the 2026 NFL Draft outlook for numerous players.

Some players didn’t do themselves any favors, especially if they are trying to go pro. The NFL Draft can be brutal, and a bad season can ruin someone’s stock. Heck, just look at what happened to Shedeur Sanders. He didn’t show enough last season, and he fell to the fifth round. Who will that happen to this season? We’ll start with one who doesn’t want to give it a shot.

10. QB Arch Manning, Texas Longhorns

Arch Manning, NFL Draft
Arch Manning | Dustin Markland/GettyImages

Arch Manning was supposed to be the Andrew Luck of this era. We were supposed to watch this incredible career grow one step at a time. His commitment to Texas was supposed to put them on the map. Everything was going according to plan, but then Manning had to wait. Quinn Ewers was really good, and it didn’t make sense to force Manning into the lineup. When Ewers was drafted by the Miami Dolphins, it was finally Manning’s time to shine.

Manning didn’t do enough shining for our liking. He struggled early in the season, and his mistakes were directly costing them games. He finally put it together in the second half of the season, but it’s not enough to put him where he’s supposed to be. It’s an interesting situation now, as the draft was spun on its head when Dante Moore decided to return to Oregon, but Manning still wouldn’t be that second choice.

His legacy is going to do more for him than anything else. If he bounces back in 2026, he’ll be the first pick. Even with Moore competing with Manning, the pedigree wins every time. We didn’t like what we saw this year, but the talent is clearly there.

9. QB Drew Allar, Penn State Nittany Lions

Drew Allar, NFL Draft
Drew Allar | Isaiah Vazquez/GettyImages

Not everyone had Drew Allar in the first round, but many mock drafts had him there. Heck, NFL Mocks draft prediction had Allar going 10th overall. Now, everyone has to go based on the projection. Allar had the look of an NFL quarterback. Unfortunately, it could not have gone worse for him this season. If you look up "disaster" in the dictionary, nobody would blame Webster for putting a picture of this Penn State team right next to it.

For one, Allar followed the Penn State mantra by failing in the big moments. His play led to James Franklin getting fired. Things only got worse from there. Allar broke his ankle against Northwestern, which was the game that ended it all. It’s where Franklin got fired, and Penn State’s national title aspirations burned up in flames.

Meanwhile, Allar is the biggest question mark in the draft. He could legitimately be a starting quarterback from game one. What’s really changed for Allar since last August? He’s still one of the most pro-ready quarterbacks in the draft. There’s not a ton of guessing with his game. He’s a pocket quarterback who can crush opposing defenses with his brain. All of that is still there, and there’s an outside chance he could go in the first round, but we’d be surprised.

8. WR Germie Bernard, Alabama Crimson Tide

Germie Bernard, NFL Draft
Germie Bernard | Kevin C. Cox/GettyImages

How impactful can one catch be? Germie Bernard was supposed to grow into a star during his senior season with the Alabama Crimson Tide. He had 794 yards in his junior season, so senior year was looking like an easy 1,000-yard performance. Unfortunately, he failed to even break 900 yards. He had eight catches for 146 yards in Week 1 against Florida State. That looked like setting up for a special season.

He didn’t break 100 yards for the rest of the year. Bernard finished his season with 60 catches, 894 yards, and seven touchdowns. It’s a fine season for a college wide receiver, but it’s far from a top wide receiver in this class. Some still have him going in the first round, but most have Bernard falling to as low as the third or fourth round. 

Then, Bernard made the catch of the season against the Oklahoma Sooners in the College Football Playoff. He jumped over the top of Sooners cornerback Gentry Williams and caught the ball against his back. He was able to get back around his helmet, land on his feet, and complete the catch before Williams was able knock it out. Does a catch like that catch the eyes of scouts? You betcha, but it likely won’t be enough to get past enough receivers to get into the first round. 

7. OL Jude Bowry, Boston College Eagles

Jude Bowry, NFL Draft
Jude Bowry | Sam Hodde/GettyImages

This draft is pretty heavy with offensive linemen. There aren’t many superstar options, but there are plenty of really good, startable options. Many thought Jude Bowry out of Boston College would grow into that. It didn’t work out that way. He came to BC as just a three-star recruit, but whenever a guy stands at 6-foot-5 and 308 pounds, they are going to turn heads. Size is the most important statistic to most scouts. As many would tell you, you can't teach size.

Coming into this season, his size and ability made him a target for scouts. However, there’s a scattering to his game that probably scares people away from him. He only allowed two sacks in 2024, but an injury hurt his stock in 2025. The Eagles were forced to play without for an extended part of the season, and it didn’t look that much different.

His size alone will get Bowry drafted, and it’s possible that his performance at the Senior Bowl and NFL Combine turns enough heads to make him an unlikely top-round pick, but the most likely scenario is that he’s a mid-round pick. If he gets taken in the third round, he should count it as a blessing after the season he’s had.

6. EDGE Dani Dennis-Sutton, Penn State Nittany Lions

Dani Dennis-Sutton, NFL Draft
Dani Dennis-Sutton | Evan Bernstein/GettyImages

Everything in Happy Valley was pretty sad this season. And the draft stock for just about everyone dropped as a result. Offensive guard Vega Ioane is the only Nittany Lion who’s still being targeted in the first round of mock drafts. Everyone else has fallen low. One who likely got hurt the worst was Dani Dennis-Sutton.

The edge rusher was ready for a breakout, but it never came. He finished the season with 42 total tackles and 8.5 sacks. Those were the exact same statistics as last season. So, Dennis-Sutton did not grow, at least on the stat sheet. He was the exact same from one year to the next.

Of course, that likely had something to do with the absolute mess happening at Penn State. A team that was supposed to compete for a championship ended up being one of the biggest disappointments in the country. It took down everyone with them. Dennis-Sutton will be one of our favorite mid-round pass rushers because all the tools still exist. He could even be a low-end starter right off the bat and grow into a decent sack artist. For now, he’s a guy who went from first round to, at best, the third round.

5. QB Sam Leavitt, Arizona State Sun Devils

Sam Leavitt, NFL Draft
Sam Leavitt | Icon Sportswire/GettyImages

Another quarterback, and this one won’t be the last. Sam Leavitt was one of the top transfer portal options this season after a somewhat successful season at Arizona State. However, he was expected to be a superstar this season. He came into the season expecting to win the Big 12. The Sun Devils might have had a chance if he was never injured, but he did, and that has his stock dropping terribly.

He didn’t even finish the season. Leavitt suffered a Lisfranc injury in September, and he ended his season with the injury in November. There were still a few good performances, like beating top-10 Texas Tech, but overall, it was a huge disappointment. To the point that he’s not even declaring for the draft. We do wonder if he feels like that’s a mistake after Dante Moore decided to return to college, but what’s done is done. He’s signing his life rights to Lane Kiffin and LSU, and we’ll see if it was the right decision.

Now, many are asking whether Leavitt was just a product of Cam Skattebo. After he left, there was a clear drop-off in production. He will be surrounded by talented players in Baton Rouge. Can he find the magic in the Bayou? Maybe, but he also has so many other pro-ready quarterbacks to compete with.

4. DE Anto Saka, Northwestern Wildcats

Anto Saka, NFL Draft
Anto Saka | Icon Sportswire/GettyImages

Scouts are always on the lookout for the next great edge player. Every so often, they come from unexpected programs. Khalil Mack played college ball at the University of Buffalo. Maxx Crosby came out of Eastern Michigan University. There are these physical freaks who are at unknown college programs. Yes, the transfer portal makes that rarer than ever, but it still happens, and people had their eyes on Anto Saka out of Northwestern this season.

Northwestern isn’t as small as Buffalo or EMU, but it’s not considered a football powerhouse with a huge NFL talent pool. Players have to earn their draft stock at NU. Saka was looking like he was going to do it. Then, he had seven tackles this season. Three of them were sacks, but why just seven tackles? What happened there? There are obviously many reasons that stat could be so low, but this is extreme. Most superstars find a way to get sacks.

Saka could have gone to the NFL and would likely have been drafted somewhere, but he probably made the right decision to just transfer to a bigger school with a better option for the next level. He’s going to Texas A&M next season, and he’ll have a chance to show what he can do when he’s not the center of attention.

3. OL Austin Barber, Florida Gators

Austin Barber, Florida Gators
Austin Barber | Icon Sportswire/GettyImages

Like Penn State, there were high hopes for the talent on the Florida Gators. In the trenches of Gainesville, there was a lot to like. Many had offensive lineman Austin Barber earning his way into consideration for a first-round pick. Unfortunately, the former four-star recruit only proved inconsistent this season, and that’s going to hurt his draft stock.

Barber is a 6-foot-6, 314-pound offensive line prospect. That in of itself is going to get him attention. This is a big boy. He’s also been starting at left tackle for years. He has plenty of experience at the hardest position on the field. This season, he was exposed for his issues with footwork. He had trouble shutting off the edge rush, and that’s pretty much his most important job.

Certain moves just beat him clean. The good news is that everything looks like a coaching issue. He’s a project, but one with a nice foundation. Coaches are going to want a little more in the first round, so we see him falling. Could he turn this around and become a really valuable left tackle in the NFL? He has all the tools at his disposal. He just needs to be rewired a bit to follow players with his feet rather than his hands.

2. QB LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina Gamecocks

LaNorris Sellers, NFL Draft
LaNorris Sellers | Icon Sportswire/GettyImages

In a world with quarterbacks dominating at big programs, it was the guy at South Carolina who was turning the most heads. We’ve talked about tools a lot in this article, but LaNorris Sellers might have more tools than anyone deems necessary. He could throw the ball a mile and run like the wind. He was the true dual threat. This is the type of player that can, seemingly out of nowhere, move up into the top five of the draft.

And he came into 2025 already having an impressive resume. In 2024, Sellers threw for 2,500 yards and 18 touchdowns with seven interceptions. This season, he dropped in every single possible category. He was less accurate, less explosive, and threw more interceptions. The yards, touchdowns, completion percentage, and passing touchdowns all dropped while his turnovers and sacks went up. He rushed for 670 yards and seven touchdowns, and 270 yards and five touchdowns.

The talent is still there, and Sellers has decided to try one more time in South Carolina. He might get some brownie points for avoiding the transfer portal, but the only way he’s getting into the first round next year is by going absolutely nuts. Honestly, if he plays like he did this past season, he might not get drafted at all.

1. QB Cade Klubnik, Clemson Tigers

Cade Klubnik, NFL Draft
Cade Klubnik | David Jensen/GettyImages

This one has to hurt for so many lovers of quarterback play. Clemson was supposed to be great this season, but that didn’t happen. Cade Klubnik was supposed to be great, but he was pretty much the opposite of that. Early in the season, he was losing games for the Tigers. He had interceptions in each of his first four games, and three of those games ended up as Clemson losses.

He couldn’t break 200 yards against Troy. And that was a competitive game! He lost to Syracuse despite 60 pass attempts. Dabo Swinney couldn’t save Klubnik from himself. He got better as the season went on, but he was still never great. There was always a piece missing from his game.

That’s not stopping him from making a push for the NFL. Klubnik is going to get plenty of scouts and draft analysts to talk themselves into him. Despite a stat line that looks like 2,943 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, he has certain aspects of his game that had us falling in love with him in the first place. It's understood that Klubnik has a chance to be a really good quarterback one day, and he was considered by some as the top player in the class and could be the number-one overall pick, but now, he needs to be lucky just to go on Day 2.