In most sports, a few losses are just a bump in the road for a team with playoff aspirations. But in the NFL, every loss hurts, especially once we reach late November and the postseason race begins to crystallize. Teams that have fallen short of expectations early have precious little margin for error, while even those at the top of the standings have to keep the pedal to the metal to stay ahead.
This week's slate features several games where both teams have a lot to play for. That can go one of two a ways: Either that pressure brings out their best, or they wilt under the spotlight. Three of our four bold predictions this week feature two teams that are either in the playoffs as of now or knocking on the door. The other includes a team that demolished another playoff hopeful last week. Without further ado, let's get into it.
The Bears finally get revenge on Aaron Rodgers
One of the best stories of the season so far has been the rise of the Chicago Bears. Under Matt Eberflus, this team stole defeat from the jaws of victory again and again. Now, under Ben Johnson, they're winning those games in dramatic fashion, and their resulting 7-3 record has them as the most shocking division leader in football.
With Johnson leading weekly postgame victory speeches and Soldier Field rocking like it's 1985, the Bears and their fans are like a kid in a candy store. And now they have a chance to slay their old nemsis, as Aaron Rodgers comes to town on Sunday.
Rodgers has tormented the Bears throughout his entire professional existence. Including the playoffs, he's 26-5 against them, all as a member of the hated Packers. When Bears fans close their eyes at night, they can still see him hitting Randall Cobb on 4th down in the 2013 regular season finale to end their playoff dreams. They can hear him yelling into the Soldier Field crowd "I still own you" after running in a touchdown in 2021.
Rodgers is pushing to play Sunday after injuring his wrist in this past Sunday's win over the Bengals. Of course he is. He's also said that he wants to let bygone be bygones and that he no longer wants to be a villain. But Bears fans won't have such an easy time letting go.
History is not on my side, but I think Chicago will find a way. Like all of their wins lately, it won't be easy, but for the first time in a while, there's a belief in this team that they can make the plays they need in the fourth quarter. The Steelers, meanwhile, are playing with one eye over their shoulders as the Ravens close in on them.
Both of these teams have vulnerable secondaries, but Williams has the better options to throw to. He's the prince that was promised, the guy Bears fans have been waiting their whole lives for, and on Sunday he'll slay the dragon.
The Chiefs force Daniel Jones to beat them ... and he doesn't
Speaking of great stories: The Colts have been maybe the biggest surprise of the year, while the Chiefs have been one of the biggest disappointments as they've struggled to a 5-5 record. They're also still licking their wounds after a tough loss in a game that they really needed against the division rival Broncos last week.
If the season ended today, the Chiefs would be out of the playoffs. They uncharacteristically lost last week coming out of their bye, so when I say that this week is a must-win, I really mean it. They can't afford to fall further back in the race with only six games to go, especially since they've already lost to the Bills, Chargers and Jaguars — the current three Wild Card teams in the AFC.
The Colts have been winning, but they've done it despite giving up a ton of yards through the air. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have to be licking their lips seeing the tape of Indy's secondary, so I expect them to sling it around early and often to Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, et al.
Shane Steichen's plan will undoubtedly be to feed Taylor and keep Mahomes on the sideline, but Steve Spagnuolo knows what he's doing. He'll load the box on every snap and force Daniel Jones to make plays, and though the former Giant started the season hot, he's gone back to some of his bad habits in recent weeks — namely, turning the ball over.
In a throwing contest at Arrowhead, I can't in good conscience take Jones to beat Mahomes, no matter what the records say. The Chiefs have to have this game, and they have too much pride not to come out with a win. I think they get it done by double digits.
The Jaguars can't handle prosperity as they suffer a letdown loss to the Cardinals
That Colts-Chiefs game is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET, and if it goes as I predicted, then the Jaguars will see that Kansas City has closed the gap on them as they get underway in Arizona.
The Cardinals have lost seven of eight and given up 85 points over the last two weeks. The Jags are 6-4 and averaging over 31 points per game in their last three as Trevor Lawrence has finally found his groove. This game has all the makings of a Jacksonville blowout, and that's exactly why I'm zagging and going the other way.
The Jags are the most Jekyll-and-Hyde team in the league. When you expect them to lose, they upset a team like the Niners or Chiefs. When they're supposed to win easily, they need overtime to edge the pathetic Raiders or blow a huge lead and lose to Davis Mills and the life-support Texans. They've perfected the art of doing the unexpected.
The Cardinals have been on the wrong end of some goofy plays this year, but it's time their luck turned. They'll again be without Marvin Harrison Jr., and Kyler Murray will still be riding out the end of his Cardinals career by languishing on the bench. I think Jonathan Gannon will rally his defensive troops for at least one week though, and Lawrence will throw the ball away a time or two. Count this more as a vote of no confidence in the Jags than a belief that the Cardinals still have fight in them, but I'm taking the home underdog.
The Panthers shock the 49ers to win the Christian McCaffrey Bowl
I don't think many people believe that the Panthers are capable of going into Levi's Stadium on Monday Night Football and winning, but this team is beginning to earn the benefit of the doubt. They've won their last three road games, and Bryce Young came out of nowhere to throw for 448 yards last week in an overtime victory in Atlanta.
That was only the second time all year that Young has thrown for over 200 yards, if you can believe that. It's a sign that this offense, which had been getting by solely on the simple strategy of handing the ball off to Rico Dowdle as much as possible, is evolving into a more balanced unit. Rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan looks like the real deal, and Carolina is perfect in its last five one-possession games.
Panthers fans are still hurting over the Christian McCaffrey trade, especially as he's continued to thrive in San Francisco. Dowdle's emergence has helped ease that pain a bit, but the Panthers' defense will also have its hands full in stopping their old workhorse and the rest of Kyle Shanahan's offense.
The Niners are only 2-2 at home this year, and they've alternated wins and losses for the past eight weeks. The Cardinals didn't test them on the ground last week, but Dowdle will be another story. Expect him to keep the chains moving, and for Young to hit some big plays off of play action. Carolina's three straight road wins are not a fluke.