For weeks now, all the talk in the AFC playoff picture has focused on unexpected upstarts like the Broncos, Jags and Patriots, along with a future Hall of Fame quarterback in Josh Allen. But the hottest team in the conference right now isn't any of those teams: It's the Houston Texans, who just notched their eighth straight win on Saturday over the Los Angeles Chargers to punch their ticket to the playoffs.
It feels like this Texans team hasn't really been taken seriously since CJ Stroud first burst onto the scene three years ago. And not without reason: Houston followed up that breakthrough year with roster mismanagement and downright ugly offense. But if you've checked out on the Texans for a while, it's time to check back in. Because this team isn't just red-hot; they've got one trump card that makes them maybe more dangerous than any other team in the AFC right now.
Texans defense proved once again that it's the best in the NFL
Granted, putting Houston's ferocious front up against this tattered Chargers offensive line is hardly a fair fight. Still, the Texans stuffed L.A. into a trash can in pretty much exactly the way you'd expect: Houston held the Bolts to 74 yards rushing on 22 carries and just 4.7 yards per play overall, sacking Justin Herbert five times in the process.
That's now the seventh consecutive game in which the Texans have held their opponent to 21 points or fewer, and their ninth in the last 10. And even that is somehow underselling it: The lone exception over that stretch came in a win over the Jags in which Jacksonville was held under four yards per play but benefitted from a punt return for a touchdown and two turnovers. Houston is holding teams to a league-best 16.6 points per game on the season; the next closest team, the Seahawks, are as close to the Vikings in ninth as they are to the Texans in first.
And the advanced stats back up every bit of that dominance. Houston's defense is averaging -0.12 expected points added per play this year, comfortably best in the league. By success rate — basically, a measure whether an offense is staying on schedule with each play — they're more than a full percentage point ahead of the second-place Broncos.
Team | Defensive EPA per play |
|---|---|
Houston Texans | -0.12 |
Minnesota Vikings | -0.10 |
Cleveland Browns | -0.09 |
Jacksonville Jaguars | -0.09 |
Seattle Seahawks | -0.09 |
Philadelphia Eagles | -0.09 |
Los Angeles Rams | -0.08 |
Los Angeles Chargers | -0.07 |
Denver Broncos | -0.06 |
New Orleans Saints | -0.05 |
They're merely good against the run, but Derek Stingley and Co. are so other-worldly against the pass that it hardly matters. (Just ask the run-heavy Bills, who got a 100-yard game from James Cook but still came away with a loss in Houston in large part thanks to two INTs and eight sacks against Josh Allen.)
In an NFL season in which there are very, very few sure things, the Texans bringing it on defense is that rarest of commodities: a known quantity. And that makes them arguably the most dangerous team in the field come playoff time.
The real value of Houston's elite defense in a flawed AFC field
Seriously: Look at the AFC bracket, and find a unit you feel more confident in than the Texans' defense. The Broncos have a great defense themselves, but we just saw that defense's weakness get exploited when the Jags took Patrick Surtain II out of the game by throwing to everyone else. The Patriots, particularly on defense, have been getting away with it against a weak schedule. We just saw what Houston did to the Chargers. Do you trust Jacksonville come January? Can Josh Allen overcome the lack of game-breaking talent around him?
Which isn't to say that the Texans don't also have question marks, of course. The offensive line remains a liability, there's a lack of playmaking talent around Nico Collins and first-year OC Nick Caley can't quite seem to make everything fit together consistently. But whatever else you want to say about Houston, it's also a fact that this defense is going to keep them competitive no matter who they're playing in the postseason.
We've seen this unit come up against just about every kind of great offense there is, and handle them all with aplomb. CJ Stroud and this offense can take the field every week knowing that if they can find a way to come up with three touchdowns, they're more than likely going to win that game. That's an extreme luxury, especially this time of year, one that's pretty much unique to the Texans. If they can simply stay out of their defense's way, there's no reason this can't be a Super Bowl team.