The NFL trade deadline won't pass for a few more hours at the time I'm typing this, but it's already clear that we've seen the biggest deal of the day as the Colts sent two future first-round picks to the New York Jets.
Gardner is a good player who fills a position of need for Indianapolis, as he helps shore up a pass defense that allows the seventh-most passing yards per game in the NFL. Indianapolis has looked like a contender offensively, but there are major questions about how the defense can hold up in the postseason.
To be frank, there are still plenty of questions about that after the Gardner deal. He's not going to single-handedly fix everything, though he will allow the team to improve on that end. And two firsts? That's a LOT to give up for one player in the NFL unless that player is a guaranteed game changer. This was definitely an overpay.
At the same time, it was probably in Indianapolis's best interest to overpay for Gardner. That's because the team's window to contend for a Super Bowl might be very, very small.
Daniel Jones' future extension means the window is now for the Colts
The highest-paid quarterback in the NFL right now, on an average per year basis, is Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys, who makes $60 million per season. Colts quarterback Daniel Jones, meanwhile, is on a one-year deal and makes $14 million. That makes him the 21st-highest paid quarterback by average value, behind guys like Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins and Justin Fields.
Indianapolis brought Jones in to compete with Anthony Richardson for the starting job. When Jones won the job, it seemed like a sign that the Colts were about to waste another season because they had a good roster but a bad quarterback. That hasn't been the case, though, as Jones has played the best football of his career, with an NFL-best 2,404 passing yards through the first nine games of the season. The 7-2 Colts would be the No. 1 seed in the playoffs if the season ended today.
(Quick aside: how weird is it that the Colts, Patriots, Broncos and Steelers are currently the top four seeds in the playoffs? What is this, the late 2000s?)
Sauce Gardner trade could force the Colts between rock and hard place with Daniel Jones
The Colts are about to be forced to make a big decision this offseason: pay Jones like a top-10 quarterback and basically destroy the team's cap flexibility, or move on from Jones and hope they can capture lightning in a bottle twice. Both options come with immense downsides. What if you pay Jones and he regresses to the guy he was in New York? What if he walks and goes on to be very good elsewhere and the Colts are stuck with, like...Riley Leonard battling a second-round rookie for the starting role? Yikes.
So while Gardner's not necessarily playing like the best corner in the NFL or anything — he's 21st among corners in overall PFF grade — he's probably still worth the risk of two future firsts because, well...the Colts really only have one guaranteed shot here at a title. Houston is falling apart because of offensive line issues. Baltimore is in a hole after Lamar Jackson's absence. The Chiefs don't feel as dominant as they have in past seasons. If there's a year to overpay for a player like Gardner, this is the year. The Colts are doing what they need to do before their contention window likely slams shut next season.