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Cowboys, Seahawks and the 4 NFL teams that will disappoint based on strength of schedule

As if there weren't already enough pressure on Dallas, the schedule won't do them any favors.
ByWynston Wilcox|
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Dallas and Seattle have too much pressure on 2026 and a tough regular season schedule won't help their case.
Dallas and Seattle have too much pressure on 2026 and a tough regular season schedule won't help their case. | Sam Hodde/GettyImages

Key Points

Bullet point summary by AI

  • The full NFL schedule release is approaching, and teams are already facing scrutiny over their projected win totals.
  • Four teams face particularly tough roads this season, with expectations clashing against demanding opponents.
  • The battle for playoff contention will be fierce, and these teams must overcome heavy schedules to meet fan and Vegas expectations.

The full NFL schedule release is still up in air, so we're still waiting to officially know when each team will play each other next season. What we already know, however, is which teams will have the toughest schedules in 2026. The Arizona Cardinals are slated to have the toughest schedule in the league, which shouldn't be a surprise given that they’re in the loaded NFC West (and they have to play the NFC East division this year).

Then again, no one's expecting much from Arizona this year; if anything, a rugged schedule will help further the tank. But what about the teams who are actually trying to win big? Teams like, say, the Dallas Cowboys, who always face the pressure of getting back to the Super Bowl, or the Seattle Seahawks, who are trying to defend their title. They have two of the toughest schedules in the NFL for the coming season, and they're not the only playoff hopefuls facing an uphill climb.

Dallas Cowboys

Brian Schottenheimer, Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer during the 2026 NFL Annual League Meeting at the Arizona Biltmore. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
  • Fourth-toughest 2026 schedule
  • Projected 2026 win total: 8.5

The Vegas odds makers don’t believe in the Cowboys this year, projecting them to have a third straight losing season. But with a dynamite offense and Dak Prescott still in his prime, Dallas will once again face championship expectations in 2026.

They might have trouble living up to them, though. It’s not easy when you have to play the Philadelphia Eagles twice, and drawing the NFC West (which produced three, 12-plus win playoff teams and the defending Super Bowl champion last season) and a Houston Texans defense that was tops in the NFL a year ago just adds insult to injury. I wouldn’t have too much faith in them, either.

Seattle Seahawks

Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawk
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) celebrates with the Vince Lombardi Trophy after defeating the New England Patriots during Super Bowl LX at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
  • 11th-toughest 2026 schedule
  • Projected 2026 win total: 10.5

The Seahawks lost quite a bit from last year’s Super Bowl team and will have an even tougher challenge in trying to defend their title. The NFC West is still loaded, and the Seahawks will also have to play the NFC East. It won’t be easy, but this is a very different team from last year. The Seahawks didn’t have a lot of draft capital to work with, complicating their roster-building approach this offseason. 

Going 11-6 with this schedule won’t be easy, which is why I feel like Seattle won’t defend their division title. I think the Los Angeles Rams will take the West, with Seattle and San Francisco battling for a playoff spot behind them.

Carolina Panthers

Carolina Panther
Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) and wide receiver Jimmy Horn Jr. (15) reacts in the fourth quarter in an NFC Wild Card Round game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images
  • Third-toughest 2026 schedule
  • Projected 2026 wins: 6.5

Carolina’s reward for the most successful season they’ve had since 2017? The third-toughest schedule in the NFL. In a year they could hope to build on 2025’s success, they’re going to have an uphill climb to the top of the NFC South again. This will truly be a test of how good Young is and how much he’s developed; if he can lead the Panthers back to the playoffs through this gauntlet, it will prove he’s worth a long-term deal. 

The Panthers’ front office was efficient in how they added to this roster over the offseason. I think six or seven wins is a bit low for Carolina. I’m not saying they’re going to be a 12-win team, but I expect them to at least reach nine wins and build off 2025. 

Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commander
Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) drops back to pass against the Minnesota Vikings during the first half at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
  • Eighth-toughest 2026 schedule
  • Projected 2026 win total: 7.5

The Washington Commanders have a lot of expectations for this year. In Jayden Daniels’ first season, he led the Commanders to the NFC championship game; 2025 was less optimistic. Daniels was hit with injuries and played in just seven games in 2025. This year, he’s expected to get the Commanders back in contention for the playoffs. That’s easier said than done this year.

I think the Commanders can get to at least nine wins this year, despite a schedule that features six playoff teams. To be the best you have to beat the best and the Commanders will have to prove when healthy, they’re one of the NFL’s best.

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