After 12 weeks of NFL football, the playoff picture looks nothing like you would have thought. In the AFC, the Patriots currently hold the No. 1 seed while the Broncos sit at No. 2 in the conference, while perennial playoff teams Houston, Kansas City and Baltimore sit outside of the top seven.
This weird picture has led to plenty of TAKES about these teams and others. These TAKES — capitalized to highlight the sensationalism of them — posit things like "Patrick Mahomes is washed" or "C.J. Stroud should be replaced," and they're bad TAKES. Complete misconceptions of what we're actually seeing on the field. Let's look at four of the biggest misconceptions in the NFL as we head into Week 13 and talk about the truth of them.
The Chiefs aren't a good football team
The 6-6 Chiefs are in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since Patrick Mahomes became the team's starting quarterback, but that's not because Kansas City is "bad." It's simply a function of two things: bad luck in close games and a very difficult schedule.
Kansas City went 11-0 in one-score games last year, an unsustainable number that spoke to the team's clutch ability but also spoke just as loudly to randomness. When a game boils down to one series, things get funky.
This year, the Chiefs are 1-6 in one-score games, which accounts for all six of the team's losses. Every loss has come down to a possession. That might speak to a lack of clutchness, but just like in 2024, it speaks just as loudly to luck. Kansas City is just getting the bad side of that luck.
Because look at the numbers. Kansas City is eighth in points scored and ninth in points allowed. Top 10 marks in both categories suggest we're watching a good football team. It's just that when it comes down to execution, there have been a few more miscues than usual — Mahomes overthrowing his receivers on third down, head coach Andy Reid running out the wrong play call on a crucial third down. These are issues, but everything except for the 6-6 record suggests this team is a contender.
The Texans can't win because of their offensive line
This was true for the first month or so of the season, but the Texans' line has made some massive strides recently that have the team set up to be a real threat in the AFC down the stretch. Let's call this one what it is: the inability of people to change their opinion when more information is available.
Heck, I wrote early on this year about the Texans offensive line holding the team back, but things are turning around. PFF currently ranks the Texans offensive line as the league's 21st-best unit, which isn't "good," but it's a five-spot improvement just from last week. The team allowed just six pressures in a win over the Bills.
What's changed? Well, veteran Trent Brown is starting at right tackle now, and it certainly appears that the 32-year-old tackle still has some juice left. Houston is 3-0 in games that Brown has started, and he's played every snap in those three games. Couple that with right guard Ed Ingram playing the best football of his career and you could argue that the right side of Houston's line is actually a major positive for the team.
Are there still concerns? Sure! Rookie left tackle Aireontae Ersery has struggled at times and it remains unclear if Jake Andrews is the right center for this team or simply just the best option on a team lacking center depth, but overall, this line has made massive strides. With C.J. Stroud set to return from his concussion, Houston will be adding a dynamic quarterback to a roster that just won three in a row with Davis Mills under center. The rest of the AFC should be worried.
Dallas trading away Micah Parsons destroyed the defense
This is another of those "we need to be better at reevaluating things" takes. TAKES, if you will. Since the bye week, Dallas is allowing 21.7 points per game despite playing both the Eagles and Chiefs. The team has won three in a row.
What's changed? Well, adding Quinnen Williams at the deadline has shored up the trenches, which has been a huge help, but improved play from veteran Jadeveon Clowney has helped, too. The biggest non-Williams reason that I'd call this defense "at least okay, if not good" now has to be linebacker DeMarvion Overshown, who was activated from the IR and has immediately shifted things on the field. It might not show up on the stat sheet, but Overshown gives Dallas an explosive presence in that middle sector of the field, warping what opposing offenses are able to do.
I wouldn't call the defense "good" yet, but it's definitely no longer "bad," and it took less than a full season for Dallas to recover from the Parsons trade, something I never would have imagined after this team gave up 37 points to the Russell Wilson-led Giants in Week 2.
Cam Ward is on his way to being a bust
Maybe these are just rose-colored glasses, but I think Cam Ward's shown us enough this season to suggest that he can be a long-term starter in the NFL. Maybe he won't ever be a top-five quarterback, but he has the talent to be a very successful player in this league.
Ward's been given so little help. His best healthy receiver is rookie Chimere Dike, who looks like an elite kick returner but only a so-so wide receiver at this stage. He's playing behind PFF's 28th-ranked offensive line. He's been sacked 45 times, more than any other NFL player.
Some of that last part is on Ward, who probably has to stop holding the ball too long. But with so few weapons, Ward has had to constantly improvise, using his feet to keep plays alive. If he had a better receiving unit, this would result in fewer sacks and more highlight-reel throws that actually get caught.
Ward's numbers aren't good, but if you actually watch the Titans play — which, hey, it's the Titans, so I don't blame you for not watching them — then you get a different story. Ward is making impressive throws, but there's just no one to catch them. His true No. 1 receiver, Calvin Ridley, has played just seven games this season. Rookie tight end Gunnar Helm is second on the team in receptions. Rookie wide receiver Elic Ayomanor leads the team in targets. There's no real semblance of a run game to take the pressure off Ward, as the team ranks last in the NFL in rushing yards.
This is a terrible football team, but Ward himself looks like a very capable quarterback. He just landed in the worst possible situation he could have landed in. If a couple of results in 2024 had gone differently and Ward had ended up as a New York Giant, I think we'd be talking about him as a future star right now.