Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins will begin the 2025 NFL season under significant pressure to perform. This Dolphins team under Mike McDaniel has been consistently good — sometimes even bordering on great — but never has it gotten over the hump in the playoffs. Miami's postseason woes are well-documented at this point, as are Tagovailoa's ongoing health concerns. Eventually, ownership will run out of patience, like large chunks of the fanbase already have.
It all comes down to Tagovailoa at the end of the day. We can quibble with Chris Grier's decisions in the GM chair or some of McDaniel's more baffling calls, but Miami has the talent. This is an explosive offensive roster built in the style of a generationally gifted play-caller in McDaniel. The defense is not great, but it's solid enough to sustain a winner. Maybe even a Super Bowl threat.
None of that matters if Tagovailoa cannot deliver, both in terms of productivity and availability. The health scares are out of his control — Tua's concussion issues transcend football — but Tagovailoa can, for the most part, take accountability for what happens when he lines up under center.
Dolphins will have a hard time cutting ties with Tua Tagovailoa if he struggles
Tagovailoa inked four-year, $212.4 million contract ahead of the 2024 campaign. In hindsight, the Dolphins probably overpaid. But in the moment, it was perfectly reasonable for a franchise to shell out that kind of money on a long-tenured quarterback with a track record of making the playoffs. NFL quarterback contracts are ballooning across the board and Tagovailoa is a Pro Bowl gunslinger who has helmed some of the most potent (regular season) offenses in recent history.
Now it's 2025, however, and Tagovailoa has several concussions on his ledger and the Dolphins are coming off of a losing season and a failed postseason bid. Maybe it all turns around and Miami is right back to competing for the division this season, but something feels different. Tyreek Hill has made his frustrations clear on several occasions. Jalen Ramsey was just traded for Minkah Fitzpatrick, a categorical downgrade. Jonnu Smith, one of the Dolphins' leading receivers last season, followed Ramsey to Pittsburgh.
The vibes are in the dumps with this Dolphins team and it's hard to express any real faith in their ability to make the playoffs, much less do something once they get there. Another subpar season might lead the Dolphins to explore foundational changes, but there's a catch. It's not as simple as cutting bait.
Tua Tagovailoa contract details and dead cap hits
Tagovailoa's contract included $167.2 million is guaranteed money. Even if the Dolphins walk away, the 27-year-old would be entitled to significant compensation while weighing down Miami's cap sheet.
Here are the dead cap hits built into Tagovailoa's contract if the Dolphins waive (or trade) him after the 2025 campaign, per Over the Cap.
Manner of Departure | Dead Money | Cap Savings |
|---|---|---|
Cut Pre-June 1 | $79.2 million | $22.8 million |
Cut Post-June 1 | $62.4 million | $6 million |
Trade Pre-June 1 | $25.2 million | $31.2 million |
Trade Post-June 1 | $8.4 million | $45 million |
The largest dead cap hit in NFL history was Russell Wilson's $85 million, which he left on Denver's books after the Broncos released him in a move of abject desperation. The Dolphins cutting Tagovailoa at his age and with his list of accomplishments would be borderline unprecedented. It's not impossible, but it would be a significant financial setback, especially without a clear (and affordable) successor in place.
Ideally the Dolphins would be able to trade Tagovailoa, but given his history of concussions and his traditional shortcomings in the availability department, odds are there would not be many (or any) serious suitors. That means Miami, barring a genuinely shocking development, will probably ride out the Tagovailoa experiment for a couple more years before slamming the reset button.