A funny thing happened on Saturday during the conference championship games, and I don't mean the fact that Duke's win over Virginia is going to mean multiple Group of Five teams get into the playoff field. That is funny, but this is the NFL, so it's not the funny thing I'm talking about. And "funny" isn't even the right word, because this isn't humorous. It's "funny" in the way people use the word to mean "interesting."
Ty Simpson might've just helped Fernando Mendoza. And I mean a lot.
What Ty Simpson did wrong in the SEC Championship
Anyway, the point is this: Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has looked like the QB2 in the upcoming draft for much of the season, but a recent downturn in performance put him on shaky ground. Simpson led Alabama to just seven points in the SEC Championship Game, completing 48.7 percent of his passes for 212 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
Simpson leads the SEC in completions and attempts, but something's changed over the last five-ish games. He's thrown more than one touchdown just once in that span and has been held under 200 yards twice, though one of those doesn't really count because it was against Eastern Illinois.
It's not that Simpson has been bad. It's just that he no longer looks like someone who should be taken in the top five of the 2026 NFL Draft. And for the handful of teams that need a new quarterback this offseason. That's not a good thing, because it means that the price of moving up for Fernando Mendoza is going to be steep.
Fernando Mendoza's draft stock skyrocketed in Big Ten Championship
Mendoza also threw just one touchdown and one interception against Ohio State, but he managed to lead the Hoosiers to a 13-10 win over the No. 1 team in the country, locking Indiana into the No. 1 seed for the playoffs. He certainly looks more pro-ready than Simpson, and his overall performance this year shows that he's the clear QB1 in this class.
We knew that already, but we didn't realize the gap between him and the other quarterbacks was as wide as it now appears to be. That's got to factor into some decision-making by NFL teams down the stretch.
Which teams make the most sense for Mendoza at No. 1?
Here are four teams that now have to figure out a way to get up to No. 1, whether by tanking the rest of the way or moving up in the 2026 NFL Draft. One notable team missing here is the Arizona Cardinals, who are currently behind four teams in the draft order that need a quarterback. The Titans or Giants, if one of them winds up picking at No. 1, are going to have better trade offers to consider than what Arizona can offer.
New Orleans Saints
Sure, the Saints could trick themselves into rolling with Tyler Shough for a second season. The rookie hasn't been great, but he's been serviceable, so New Orleans might not be willing to give up a ton of draft capital for Mendoza.
But if the Saints struggle down the stretch and wind up in a position to draft Mendoza naturally, they've got to do it. Shough might look decent, but he lacks the upside of Mendoza.
Simpson's struggles really just make it more likely that New Orleans rolls with Shough in a scenario where they can't get Mendoza. If they can get the Indiana quarterback, they've got to do it.
Las Vegas Raiders
Trading for Geno Smith has proven to be a disaster. Instead of landing a piece that would put the Raiders in a position to compete for an AFC West title, the move has solidified the team's place in the cellar.
Will Pete Carroll want to coach a rookie quarterback at this stage in his career? Well...if he wants to win football games, then he'd better consider it, because waiting on Smith to bounce back is a recipe for failure.
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback has been a nightmare position for the Browns this season, and the team might have the ammunition to move up for a solution as the team has its own first-round pick in 2026 as well as Jacksonville's first. That's the start of an enticing trade package, though Cleveland would still need to add more to make the deal.
The Browns making this move would mean waving the white flag early on both Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders, but, like...okay? Does anyone really think those two are important parts of Cleveland's future? Sanders has a chance to prove he can be the team's 2026 backup, but he isn't stopping Cleveland from drafting Mendoza.
New York Jets
New York's upset win over Atlanta has really clouded the team's path toward the No. 1 pick, with the team currently slated to draft at No. 7.
That's a shame, because this might be Mendoza's best landing spot, especially if the team keeps running back Breece Hall around. Add in wide receiver Garrett Wilson and the emerging Adonai Mitchell and you get a solid situation for Mendoza.
But if the Jets want him, the Jets might be able to have him. In addition to their own first and second round picks next year, the Jets have the Colts' first and the Cowboys' second round picks, plus a whole host of Day 3 selections. If there's a team that's positioned to bowl the Titans or Giants offer with a huge offer to move up, this might be the team.