College football rankings: Projected CFP Top 25, bracket as Indiana bests Ohio St, UGA batters Bama, Duke stuns UVA

The College Football Playoff has made conference championship weekend a minefield of debates and arguments, regardless of the outcomes. It's the job of the selection committee settle those disputes by delivering the definitive top 25 rankings and the CFP bracket that comes with them. Most of the top 25 is easy to sort. But the teams that aren't simple to place — like Alabama, Notre Dame and Miami — are difficult enough to give the committee a long night.

Someone always gets left out and title games often play a role in that. BYU is going to learn that the hard way by almost certainly being left out after their loss to Texas Tech. Alabama may also shockingly finds itself on the wrong side of that equation after a pitiful showing against Georgia. Amid the grumbling were celebrations, as conference titles for Tulane and James Madison could lead to two CFP bids for the Group of Five. It all comes down to what the committee decides. So let's take a crack at it.

College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings, bracket projections

1. No. 25-20
2. No. 20-16
3. No. 15-11
4. No. 10-6
5. No. 5-1
6. Projected College Football Playoff bracket after conference championship week

No. 25-20

25. Washington Huskies

North Texas is likely to drop out of the top 25 and someone has to take their place. It could be Tennessee, but it's more fun if we don't throw the SEC that bone. It'll go to the Big Ten instead. Washington is the highest rated unranked team in FEI at No. 16. They rank ahead of Iowa, Texas, Tennessee, Michigan and Arizona. The Huskies were a tough team to play this year, with three of their four losses coming against Ohio State, Oregon and Michigan. They deserve to be ranked. They're expected to get a bid to the LA Bowl.

24. Iowa Hawkeyes

Iowa finished the season 8-4 with losses to Iowa State (by just three), Indiana (by just five), Oregon (by just two) and USC (by just five). It's easy to see why the committee has given them a ranking despite their W-L record. Other teams might have been on the outside looking in but the Hawkeyes play stellar defense and deserve their spot. They drop one spot by way of James Madison's Sun Belt title. It's looking like it'll be the Reliaquest Bowl to end their season.

23. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Georgia Tech was one of the big stories out of the ACC by starting the season 8-0. The final four weeks were a catastrophe with losses to NC State, Pitt and Georgia. But they played the Bulldogs tough in their rivalry game, so it makes sense that the committee keeps them ranked. They're being projected to the Gator, Pop-Tarts or Duke's Mayo Bowl.

22. Houston Cougars

Like everyone else so far, Houston was inactive during conference title week. They lost luster after their 7-1 record turned into 9-3 following losses to West Virginia and TCU. The Cougars still boast wins over Arizona and Arizona State, so this has been a fairly successful season. They are likely looking at a Texas Bowl berth.

21. Virginia Cavaliers

Oh Virginia, you were so close to sneaking into the College Football Playoff. Instead, you find yourself 21st and looking at a date in the Holiday, Pop-Tarts or Duke's Mayo Bowl instead. The Cavaliers trailed most of the ACC title game against Duke but they stunned the Blue Devils by scoring an 18-yard touchdown with 22 seconds left in the game. Forcing overtime kept their CFP hopes alive, until a botched trick play ended them with an interception. Oof.

No. 20-16

20. James Madison Dukes

The James Madison Dukes can thank the Duke Blue Devils for a bid to the College Football Playoff (if the committee does right by the G5). While Virginia fumbled their chance, the Dukes took care of business in the Sun Belt championship game. JMU pulled away with two fourth quarter touchdowns to beat Troy, 31-14. Now their 12-1 season could give them a chance to shock the world.

19. Michigan Wolverines

Michigan couldn't pull off the upset against rival Ohio State last week, but Wolverines fans got their fill of schadenfreude watching the Buckeyes lose to Indiana in the Big Ten title game. That's now five years without a conference title...but who's counting. The Wolverines completed their 9-3 season and now can look forward to a Citrus Bowl berth.

18. Arizona Wildcats

Arizona came into the season with a win total projection of 4.5, second last in the Big 12. They got the last laugh by winning nine games, including a rivalry win over Arizona State. It was a welcome sign that Brent Brennan might be building something in Tucson. Next up, the Wildcats should be heading to San Diego for the Holiday Bowl.

17. USC Trojans

USC was tantalizingly close to competing for a playoff spot, but a two-point loss to Illinois sunk them, alongside losses to Notre Dame and Oregon. So Lincoln Riley finds himself 9-3 and with a bit of a split fanbase. On one hand, the Trojans greatly improved from last year's 7-6 showing. On the other hand, Riley has been in charge for four seasons and doesn't have much to show for it. Finishing with 10 wins for the first time since 2022 would mean a lot for the coach. It'll take beating a Big 12 opponent in the Alamo Bowl to hit that mark.

16. Tulane Green Wave

It looked like Tulane was a lock for the No. 12 seed in the CFP after beating North Texas, 34-21, in the American title game. As it turns out, they might land the No. 11 seed instead. Duke's win over Virginia makes Tulane the fourth-highest rated conference champion in the land. If James Madison gets in as well, they'll enjoy the bump. Of course, JMU might get screwed in favor of Duke. Even that shouldn't change the seeding. So the Green Wave have an American conference title and their eyes on even more to cap their 10-2 campaign.

No. 15-11

15. Utah Utes

Utah would rather have been playing in the Big 12 title game. Their losses to Texas Tech and BYU kept them out. Winning out after that loss to the Cougars has them up inside the top 15 with the chance to post an 11-win season for the first time since 2019 and only the third time in Kyle Whittingham's tenure. They'll try their luck in the Las Vegas Bowl.

14. Vanderbilt Commodores

Diego Pavia's Heisman hopes may have been undercut by Fernando Mendoza on Saturday, but Vanderbilt is still in range to cap their best season in, well, ever with an 11th win. Keeping Clark Lea in place may have been the biggest win of all. They'll look for another one in the Gator or Reliaquest Bowl.

13. Texas Longhorns

Right about now, Steve Sarkisian is probably sleepless, tossing and turning in bed grumbling about how Texas is going to be left out of the playoff. With three losses, he can't really complain. Then again, with the eighth-toughest strength of schedule in the country, he actually can. The Longhorns are out while one of Notre Dame or Miami with their 44th and 45th ranked SOS will almost certainly get a bid. It sucks for Texas, but maybe don't lose to Florida next time? Texas will get to take it out on their bowl opponent, possibly in the Citrus Bowl.

12. Miami Hurricanes

Here's where it gets tricky. Miami thinks they should get a playoff berth over Notre Dame or Alabama. And they have a point. They beat the Irish head-to-head and the Crimson Tide have three losses. There's a world where they get in over the other two teams, but I'll believe that when I see it. The Hurricane's conference losses are a problem. It's more likely they kick off in the Gator Bowl than the playoff.

11. BYU Cougars

BYU is also set up to have a gripe with the CFP committee. They played in the Big 12 title game and that's the only reason they have two losses to match Notre Dame's or Miami's. Is the committee going to punish them for it? I'd be more sympathetic if Texas Tech hadn't so thoroughly defeated them. That's the second time this season the Red Raiders have humbled them by more than three touchdowns. So, yeah, it's probably the Alamo Bowl for the Cougars.

No. 10-6

10. Alabama Crimson Tide

There will be a lot of calls for Alabama to be dropped from the bracket loudly ringing out before, during and after the CFP Selection Show. Considering how the Crimson Tide didn't even put up a fight against Georgia in the SEC title game, I get it. It's one thing to be punished for participating in your conference title game. It's another thing to get punished for no-showing it. Even so, it's hard to believe the committee will actually go through with it, risking the SEC's wrath in the process. So say hello to your final at-large playoff bid.

9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

No one benefited more from blowout losses for BYU and Alabama than Notre Dame. Instead of a Notre Dame vs. Miami debate, Saturday turned into an Alabama vs. Miami debate. The Irish suddenly look like a lock to get in. It's simple: Is Notre Dame one of the best nine teams in the country? Absolutely. They've hit their stride this season and are playing as well as anyone else.

8. Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma sat at how watching the SEC title game secure in the knowledge that regardless of the outcome, they'll see their logo on the official CFP bracket. With wins over Michigan, Alabama and Missouri and losses to Texas and Ole Miss, the Sooners have one of the best resumes in the country. The question is whether they can handle business and advance to the quarterfinals.

7. Texas A&M Aggies

Texas A&M's loss to Texas to end the regular season kept them from the SEC championship game. They might get their chance to battle it out with Georgia anyways if the playoff seeding falls the right way. The Aggies are finally living up to lofty expectations in College Station, and those don't stop with just a playoff berth. The 12th man wants a national title.

6. Ole Miss Rebels

No team is more intriguing heading into the playoffs than Ole Miss. There is a universe where the committee drops the Rebels because they lost head coach Lane Kiffin to LSU. Not having the head coach who led you to 11-1 in the playoffs does feel like a big deal. But I'm not playing that game. Ole Miss earned the right to host in the first round, with or without Kiffin.

No. 5-1

5. Oregon Ducks

There was a chance for Oregon to move up after conference championship weekend. It would have required Texas Tech losing to BYU or Georgia to Alabama...or one of Ohio State or Indiana getting obliterated in the Big Ten title game. None of those things happened, so the Ducks sit still at No. 5. Their eyes are on the ever-elusive prize. Fortunately, hosting the lowest seed at Autzen is a hell of an advantage.

4. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Texas Tech had one job coming into Saturday: Beat BYU. Win the Big 12. Lock in a bye. They did just that, with emphasis for good measure. The Red Raiders have looked like a team on a mission, except for that hiccup against ASU. Now they will get to sit back and wait for their quarterfinal opponent to come to them.

3. Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State and Indiana gave college football quite the show in the Big Ten title game. Despite the low-scoring 13-10 final, it was a thrilling game between two of the best teams in the country. Will the committee recognize the quality on display from both teams and drop the Buckeyes to second instead of third? They could. But here's the funny part: Ryan Day and his team should be begging to be the No. 3 seed. At least in my version of the bracket, they'd get Tulane and a coachless Ole Miss in the quarterfinals instead of Texas A&M or Alabama.

2. Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia won the SEC title, walloping Alabama along the way. It's the impressiveness of their win that has me convinced they deserve the No. 2 seed. Conference titles have to matter for something, right? The Bulldogs avenged their lone loss of the season by beating Alabama 28-7. That's even more reason to put them one spot behind the undeniable No. 1 seed.

1. Indiana Hoosiers

Curt Cignetti, take a bow. In just two years, Indiana's head coach took his team from college football doormat to Big Ten champ and No. 1 playoff seed. It's been an incredible run for Fernando Mendoza and company. They aren't just undefeated. Along the way they beat Oregon and Ohio State, proving they have more than enough juice to go on and win it all. If they pulled it off, it would arguably be the best rags-to-riches story in the history of college football.

Projected College Football Playoff bracket after conference championship week

The College Football Playoff bracket is relatively simple to piece together, unless the committee wants to upend the rankings they set just days ago. There are only a few questions: 1. Does Georgia leap Ohio State? 2. Does James Madison get a bid or does Duke somehow crash the party? 3. Who gets in between Alabama, Miami and Notre Dame?

These are my answers: 1. Yes. 2. Yes and god no. 3. Notre Dame and Alabama.

I've kept all the rest of the rankings untouched for inactive teams. Thus we get matchups between JMU and Oregon, Notre Dame and Oklahoma, Tulane and Ole Miss and Alabama and Texas A&M with Texas Tech, Indiana, Ohio State and Georgia waiting for the winners in the quarterfinals.

More College Football news and analysis: