The Tampa Bay Bucs started their must-win game against the Carolina Panthers on Saturday like a team with its back against the wall, jumping out to a 10-0 lead early in the second quarter. The Panthers fought back to close the gap twice, but Tampa Bay held on to secure a crucial victory to keep their season alive.
But while Tampa needed a win to avoid being eliminated from playoff contention, it's not the only thing they need to punch their ticket. To understand why, we need to do a quick lap through the NFL's tiebreaker procedures.
NFC South tiebreakers: Why Bucs need more than just a win vs. Panthers
Here's where understanding the NFL's tiebreaker procedure is critical. In the case of a two-way tie atop the division, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head record, followed by divisional record and then record in games against common opponents. In the event of a three-way tie, however, the order changes, and the first tiebreaker becomes head-to-head record among the three teams.
That's a critical distinction as Week 18 unfolds, as the division's other game this weekend has the potential to throw a wrench in the works.
Team | Record |
|---|---|
Carolina Panthers | 8-9 |
Tampa Bay Bucs | 8-9 |
Atlanta Falcons | 7-9 |
New Orleans Saints | 6-10 |
How Bucs can make the playoffs in Week 18
- Clinch NFC South and No. 4 seed: Win + Falcons loss vs. Saints
If you're a Bucs fan, that two-way tie atop the division is everything because the Bucs hold the tiebreaker edge there: The teams split the season series giving both 3-3 records against the NFC South, but Tampa would advance by virtue of a better record in common games.
Unfortunately, that two-way tie won't be confirmed until Sunday, when the 7-9 Falcons take on the 6-10 Saints. If Atlanta wins, the three teams will be tied atop the division at 8-9, meaning that head-to-head record among the three will determine who gets the playoff spot. In that scenario, Carolina would be 3-1, with Tampa at 2-2 and the Falcons at 1-3, awarding the Panthers the division and the No. 4 seed.
To make it very simple: While the Bucs needed to win on Saturday to keep their playoff hopes alive, they also need a New Orleans win on Sunday in order to keep the Falcons out of the mix and ensure they win the tiebreaker against Carolina. Atlanta has already been mathematically eliminated — they can only force a three-way tie, and they're guaranteed to lose that tiebreaker — but you can bet that Kirk Cousins, Bijan Robinson and Co. would be happy to play spoiler and end the season on a high note.