We've got just one weekend remaining in the NFL regular season, and yet pretty much everything about the playoff picture remains frustratingly out of focus. Sure, some divisions are already under wraps, and some teams have a more straight-forward path to locking in a given seed than others. In both the AFC and the NFC, the top seed just needs to win to secure a first-round bye and home-field until the Super Bowl.
The Wild Card pictures, though, could break in any number of directions based on how games play out on Saturday and Sunday. It's a lot to try and sort through on your own, but don't worry, we're here to help. We've laid out every possible scenario for every playoff-eligible team remaining in the league. Just scroll down to your favorite team (or your most hated rival) and take a look.
AFC
Denver Broncos (13-3)
- Clinch the No. 1 seed: Win vs. Chargers OR Patriots loss vs. Dolphins
- Clinch the No. 2 seed: Loss vs. Chargers + Patriots loss OR Jaguars loss vs. Titans
- Clinch the No. 3 seed: Loss + Patriots win AND Jaguars win
The Broncos hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the conference's only other 13-3 team in the Patriots, meaning that all Denver needs is a win at home against the Chargers in Week 18 to secure the top seed and a first-round bye. If they lose, though, they'll need New England to lose at home against Miami.
If Denver loses and the Pats win, the Broncos could still hang on to the No. 2 seed, provided that the Jaguars lose to Tennessee — Denver doesn't hold the tiebreaker over Jacksonville but does over the Texans. If the Broncos lose while New England and the Jags both win, they'll finish a game behind the Pats and behind Jacksonville due to the tiebreaker.
New England Patriots (13-3)
- Clinch the No. 1 seed: Win + Broncos loss
- Clinch the No. 2 seed: Win + Broncos win OR loss + Jaguars loss
- Clinch the No. 3 seed: Loss + Jaguars win
It's similarly simple for the Patriots, who don't hold tiebreakers over either Denver or Jacksonville. Mike Vrabel's team is guaranteed a top-two seed with a win, and still has a shot at the top seed if they win and the Broncos lose. Lose at home to Miami, though, and they'll need a Jaguars loss to avoid falling to No. 3.
Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)
- Clinch the No. 1 seed: Win + Broncos loss + Patriots loss
- Clinch the No. 2 seed: Win + Broncos loss + Patriots win OR win + Broncos win + Patriots loss
- Clinch the No. 3 seed: Win + Broncos win + Patriots win OR loss + Texans loss vs. Colts
- Clinch Wild Card: Loss + Texans win (seeding dependent on strength of victory)
Now we're fully in the weeds. Because the Jags are sitting pretty with the tiebreaker math, they could still technically steal the AFC's top seed if they win against Tennessee while both Denver and New England lose. With a win and a loss from just one of Denver or New England, they move up to the No. 2 spot. The only way that Jacksonville could lose their grip on the AFC South, and fall out of the top three seeds entirely, is with both a loss to the Titans and a Texans win over the Colts.
From there, how far they drop depends on what happens around the league in Week 18. The Jags could still guaranteed the No. 5 seed with a Bills loss (Jacksonville holds the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Chargers), but a three-way tie would send things to strength of victory.
Baltimore Ravens (8-8) and Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
- Winner clinches AFC North and No. 4 seed
The situation in the AFC North is blessedly simple. The Ravens and Steelers meet in Pittsburgh on Sunday night, with the winner taking the division and the No. 4 seed in the bracket.
Houston Texans (11-5)
- Clinch the No. 3 seed: Win + Jaguars loss
- Clinch the No. 5 seed: Win + Jaguars win OR loss + Chargers loss + Bills loss
- Clinch the No. 6 seed: Loss + Chargers win + Bills loss OR loss + Chargers loss + Bills win
- Clinch the No. 7 seed: Loss + Chargers win + Bills win
There's exactly one path out of a road Wild Card game for Houston: Beat the Colts and get a loss from Jacksonville against Tennessee. If the Jags win, the good news is that Houston already holds the tiebreaker edge over the Chargers and Bills; as long as the Texans handle business, they can't fall further than No. 5. If they lose to Indianapolis, though, they'll need losses by either one or (ideally) both of L.A. and Buffalo to avoid slipping.
Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
- Clinch the No. 5 seed: Win + Texans loss OR win + Texans win + Jaguars loss + Bills win (pending strength of victory tiebreaker)
- Clinch the No. 6 seed: Win + Texans win + Jaguars win OR loss + Bills loss OR win + Texans win + Jaguars loss + Bills loss (pending SOV tiebreaker with Jaguars)
- Clinch the No. 7 seed: Loss + Bills win
Get your calculators out. The Chargers are guaranteed a Wild Card spot, but which one depends on a variety of factors and the results of their game against Denver as well as what the Jaguars, Texans and Bills all do.
Los Angeles doesn't hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Houston or Jacksonville, but they do hold the common games tiebreaker over Buffalo. If everyone wins, they stay at No. 6. If either the Texans or Jaguars win, they can bump up to No. 5. If they lose, they likely fall to No. 7.
Buffalo Bills (11-5)
- Clinch the No. 5 seed: Win + Texans loss + Chargers loss OR win + Texans win + Jaguars loss + Chargers loss
- Clinch the No. 6 seed: Win + Texans loss + Chargers win OR win + Texans win + Jaguars win + Chargers loss OR win + Texans win + Jaguars loss + Chargers win (lose SOV tiebreaker to Chargers, win common games tiebreaker over Jaguars)
- Clinch the No. 7 seed: Loss OR win + Texans win + Jaguars win + Chargers win OR win + Texans win + Jaguars loss + Chargers win (lose SOV tiebreaker to Jaguars, lose common games tiebreaker to Chargers
I promise we're almost done. The simplest outcome isn't a very likely one: If the Bills lose at home to the Jets on Sunday, they're locked into the No. 7 seed. If Buffalo wins, though, what happens next depends on all manner of results around the conference.
With a win and a loss from any two of the Jags, Texans and Chargers, Buffalo can move up to No. 5. With a win and a loss from any one of the three teams above, they can move up to No. 6.
NFC
Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
- Clinch the No. 1 seed: Win at 49ers
- Clinch the No. 5 seed: Loss at 49ers
Ah, blessed simplicity. The Seahawks hold a one-game lead on the rest of the conference, but their loss at home to San Francisco earlier in the year means that they're still at risk of losing the division with a loss to the Niners in Week 18.
Chicago Bears (11-5)
- Clinch the No. 2 seed: Win vs. Lions OR loss + Eagles loss vs. Commanders
- Clinch the No. 3 seed: Loss + Eagles win
Chicago's win in Philly earlier this year gives the Bears the all-important tiebreaker over the Eagles. Take care of business at home against Detroit, and Ben Johnson and Co. are locked into the No. 2 seed and a date with the Packers. Lose, though, and Philadelphia can leapfrog them with a win at home against the lowly Commanders.
Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
- Clinch the No. 2 seed: Win + Bears loss
- Clinch the No. 3 seed: Loss OR win + Bears win
As stated above, Philly will either finish at the No. 2 or No. 3 seed. If they win, that puts pressure on Chicago to hold serve against a Lions team that would no doubt love to play spoiler against a division rival. Given that the No. 3 seed will likely face a loaded NFC West side, this race matters a whole heck of a lot.
Carolina Panthers (8-8) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
- CAR clinches the No. 4 seed: Win vs. Bucs OR loss + Saints loss vs. Falcons
- TB clinches the No. 4 seed: Win vs. Panthers + Saints win
This one isn't as simple as it appears at first glance. The Falcons and Saints are no longer alive for a playoff spot, but they can decide one all the same in their game in Week 18: If Atlanta wins, it could force a three-way tie atop the division at 7-9 if Tampa beats Carolina. Again, the Falcons themselves are already eliminated, but the decisive factor would then shift to head-to-head record among the trio. Carolina is 3-1 against the other two teams after sweeping Atlanta earlier this season. Tampa, meanwhile, would only be 2-2 in those games, giving Carolina the tiebreaker.
The upshot is that Carolina is win-and-in on Sunday, but Tampa isn't. The Bucs need to not only beat the Panthers but also get a Saints win over the Falcons to punch their ticket.
San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
- Clinch the No. 1 seed: Win vs. Seahawks
- Clinch the No. 5 seed: Loss + Rams loss vs. Cardinals
- Clinch the No. 6 seed: Loss + Rams win
The Niners have a simple path to the No. 1 seed and a much-needed first-round bye: Just beat the Seahawks at home. If San Francisco loses that game, then their seeding comes down to the Rams-Cardinals game in Los Angeles. If the Rams handle their business, that drops the 49ers down to No. 6, as Kyle Shanahan's team would lose the common games tiebreaker.
Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
- Clinch the No. 5 seed: Win + 49ers loss
- Clinch the No. 6 seed: Loss OR win + 49ers win
It's hard to believe it's come to this for a Rams team that felt like Super Bowl favorites for much of the season, but L.A.'s loss in Atlanta last Monday night has dropped them into a Wild Card spot. Which one depends on the 49ers: If San Francisco loses, Los Angeles can leapfrog them into the No. 5 spot with a win at home against Arizona. If San Francisco wins, the Rams are locked into No. 6.
Green Bay Packers (9-6-1)
Green Bay's loss to the Ravens in Week 17 means that the Packers are already locked into the No. 7 seed, traveling to either Chicago or Philadelphia on Wild Card weekend.