Typically the NFL playoff picture has more clarity going into the final week of the NFL season, but this year, there’s still a lot to decide as the NFL playoff picture is very convoluted. In the AFC, well it gets chaotic trying to decide who could be seeded where. The Jacksonville Jaguars could finish as the No. 1 seed or fall all the way down to the seventh seed depending on how things shake out; Houston could be the No. 3 seed or as low as No. 7. The only certain thing in the AFC is that the AFC North champion will be the No. 4 seed.
In the NFC, the No. 2 and No. 3 seed will either be the Chicago Bears or the Philadelphia Eagles, the fourth seed will be the NFC South champion, the Seattle Seahawks can only be the No. 1 or No. 4 seed, the Packers are a lock at the No. 7 seed, the LA Rams can only be No. 5 or No. 6 and the San Francisco 49ers can either be as high at No. 1 or fall to No. 5 or 6. Here’s all the wild things that could happen in a crazy Week 18 that could throw the entire NFL playoff picture into pandemonium.
San Francisco 49ers fall out of contention for No. 1 seed
Get No. 5 seed with:
- Loss and Rams loss or tie OR
- Tie
Get No. 6 seed with:
- Loss and Rams win
Assuming the 49ers lose in Saturday’s clash against the Seahawks, the 49ers would either get the No. 5 or 6 seed in the playoffs and it’s all contingent on the Rams. Brock Purdy was playing with a whole lot of moxie on Sunday night against the Bears and if that version of him returns, none of this will probably matter.
But the 49ers, despite injuries and an overhauled offense, have found a way to contend in the NFC gauntlet this year. They beat the Seahawks in Week 1, but since then Seattle hasn’t scored less than 13 points all year. This is a very different team from then and it should be just as exciting as anticipated.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers win and still get booted out of NFL playoffs
- TB wins and Falcons win
The fact that the NFC South could come down to a three-way tiebreaker is insane and depending on who you’re a fan of, it could be the perfect amount of chaos for your football appetite. The Bucs could technically win and then get booted out of the playoff picture if Atlanta wins.
Carolina swept the Falcons this year so the only way the Panthers could get eliminated is if they lose and the Falcons lose.
Jacksonville Jaguars soar to top of AFC
- Jags win and Denver loss and New England loss
If those three things happen, Trevor Lawrence can turn Jacksonville from top 5 draft pick to top team in the AFC in one season. Of course, this is not likely to happen as New England and Denver have been atop the AFC pretty much all season. That said, to fuel the chaotic NFL postseason fire, in a dark, twisted parallel, NFL universe, anything is possible.
It’s not completely erratic to think it could happen, however, as the LA Chargers (Denver’s opponent) has something to play for, they could still land as high as the No. 5 seed so they have every incentive to win. Though Miami is knocked out of playoff contention, Quinn Ewers has given this team new life.
No. 5 seed is up for grabs in the AFC
Houston gets No. 5 seed:
- Houston wins and Jags win/tie
- Houston tie and LA loss/tie and Buffalo loss/tie
- Houston, LA and Buffalo all lose
- Jags win and LA/Buffalo lose
Jacksonville gets No. 5 seed:
- Jags loss and Houston win and Buffalo loss/tie
- Jags loss and Houston win and LA win and some help
LA Chargers get No. 5 seed:
- LA win and Houston loss/tie
- LA win and Jags loss and Buffalo win and some help
- LA tie and Houston loss and Buffalo win/tie
Buffalo gets No. 5 seed:
- Buffalo win and LA loss/tie and Houston loss/tie
- Buffalo win and LA loss/tie and Jags loss
- Buffalo tie and LA loss and Houston loss
Let’s get weird, shall we? That’s what’s going on with the No. 5 seed. The Chargers, Texans, Jags and Buffalo Bills could all land in the No. 5 seed with Houston and Jacksonville having some of the more chaotic routes there. Buffalo was supposed to be a contender in the AFC this year and with Kansas City out of the picture, had the perfect chance to go on a Super Bowl run.
LA Chargers have most chaotic way to land the No. 6 seed
Chargers get No. 6 seed if:
- LA, Houston and Jacksonville all win
- LA win and Houston win and some help
- LA win and Houston win and Buffalo tie
- LA tie and Houston win/tie and Buffalo tie
- LA tie and Houston tie and Buffalo loss
- LA tie and Houston loss and Buffalo win
- LA loss and Buffalo loss
- Houston win and Buffalo loss
Jacksonville gets No. 6 seed if:
- Jags loss and Houston win and Buffalo win and LA loss/tie
Houston gets No. 6 seed if:
- Houston tie and Buffalo loss/tie and LA win
- Houston tie and Buffalo win and LA loss/tie
- Houston loss and Buffalo loss and LA win/tie
- Houston loss and Buffalo win/tie and LA loss
Buffalo gets No. 6 seed if:
- Buffalo win and LA loss/tie and Houston win and Jags win/tie
- Buffalo win and LA win and Houston loss/tie
- Buffalo win and LA win and Jags loss and some help
- Buffalo tie and LA loss and Houston win/tie
- Buffalo tie and LA win/tie and Houston loss
As you see, the playoff teams are basically set in the AFC they just don’t quite know what seed they’ll be. The No. 5 and No. 6 seeds all have wild scenarios to play out. Buffalo and LA own the most chaotic paths depending on how things play out. The way this season is going and all the weird things that have ensued, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the most odd of situations to happen unfold.