Well folks, we made it. Week 18 is here, which means another long NFL regular season is about to come to an end. As always, there were surprises, probably more than in most years. The Patriots, Jaguars and Bears all brought in new head coaches and immediately shot to the front of their respective divisions. The Chiefs finally fell off their perch atop the AFC, while the Lions, Vikings and Commanders joined them as massive disappointments.
Week 18 is always the end of one thing, but the beginning of another. Most of the playoff spots are locked up, though there are still seedings to be decided. But for the Bucs, Panthers, Ravens and Steelers, the postseason begins a week early. Seventeen weeks wasn't enough to sort out their divisions, and as fate would have it, they each get to play the team standing in their way in the final week.
What to expect from Week 18: Playoff spots on the line in AFC North and NFC South
It's been a pretty successful season for our bold predictions, and like the 14 teams who will be fortunate enough not to have their seasons end, we'll hope to carry that success deep into January. First though, we need to finish what we started and put a bow on the regular season. This week is always a strange one, as many teams either have no motivation to play since they've already punched their ticket, or motivation to lose to help their draft position. We won't be touching those games and will instead be focusing on the ones that matter.
There are three games where both teams desperately want a win, but our typical M.O. is to make four bold predictions. Let's look at each of those games, then for our final act, predict the final playoff seedings and playoff matchups in both conferences.
The Panthers put the Bucs out of their misery
The NFC South has been a real mess this year, so it's fitting that the playoff scenarios in the final week are not clear-cut. The Bucs would love to get in with a win over the Panthers, but their late season collapse has afforded them no such luxury. Instead, they have to win on Saturday, and then root for the resurgent Saints to beat the Falcons, or at least tie them, on Sunday.
There's always a team or two that starts hot each year and then limps their way to the playoffs. If the Bucs make it, they wouldn't have limped. They'd have flipped their wheelchair and landed in a heap in the postseason field. They've lost seven of eight games after a 6-2 start, with their only win coming over the hapless Cardinals.
The Panthers haven't exactly been lighting things up, but it's a testament to Dave Canales' coaching ability that they've gone from a perennial doormat to a team with a shot in Week 18. They've been alternating wins and losses since Week 7, and though that won't get you places in most divisions, the NFC South is one place where a team could get away with such a yo-yo performance.
Other than a 30-0 beating of the Falcons in Week 3, the Panthers haven't won a game by more than one score all year, and six of their wins have come by exactly three points. Meanwhile, the Bucs are riding a four-game losing streak in which they've lost all four games by a total of 11 points.
The Bucs are at home and favored in this game. That's a spot the Panthers have enjoyed this year, as every one of their wins occurred when they were an underdog (yes, even against the Jets in Week 7). They've shown themselves to be capable of pulling massive surprises, such as beating the Packers at Lambeau Field in Week 9 and then coming back to shock the Rams almost a month later.
The Bucs have been riddled with injuries most of the year, but they're coming into this game relatively healthy. They certainly have the advantage when it comes to name recognition, as Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans and Antoine Winfield Jr. are all bigger stars than anyone on Carolina.
I'll never forget you, Weeks 1-5 Baker Mayfield 🥀 pic.twitter.com/iD95dCTlxc
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) December 28, 2025
Still, picking the Bucs feels like betting red on roulette when black just keeps coming up. The Panthers keep winning close games, the Bucs keep losing them, and they beat them head-to-head just two weeks ago. The Panthers weren't even supposed to be here, while the Bucs were supposed to have the division wrapped up by now. Carolina loves being the underdog, and the Bucs have shown time and again that being the favorite doesn't suit them. I'm going with the Panthers to win it 23-20, just as they did a fortnight ago, on a last-second field goal from Ryan Fitzgerald.
That'll render the Falcons-Saints game on Sunday moot, and I think it will even result in Todd Bowles being relieved of his duties by Monday. Not many coaches survive a collapse like this one, and he won't be the exception.
Sam Darnold exorcises his big-game demons and locks up the 1-seed for the Seahawks
What a great game to have in the final week. The Seahawks and 49ers have had some incredible battles in meaningful games over the years, and this latest chapter of the rivalry should be something special. The 1-seed and a first-round bye is on the line, with the 49ers having the unique opportunity to host every game from here on out, including the Super Bowl.
These teams haven't met since way back in Week 1, but they've been neck-and-neck in the standings all season long. In that opening game, Brock Purdy drove the Niners down the field for a go-ahead touchdown with under two minutes remaining, shocking the Lumen Field crowd. Sam Darnold foreshadowed his season-long connection with Jaxon Smith-Njigba to get the Seahawks inside the 10 in the final minute, but a strip-sack by Nick Bosa won it for San Fran.
Both teams are riding six-game winning streaks, but they've been doing it in different ways. The Seahawks have one of the league' best defenses, and other than a shootout two weeks ago with the Rams in which they overcame a 16-point fourth-quarter deficit to win on an overtime 2-point conversion, they've smothered their opponents, holding the Vikings, Falcons, Colts and Panthers to just 25 points combined.
The Niners have been hitting on all cylinders on offense. They've made the smart decision to basically never punt anymore, and it's worked for them, as they've scored 127 in the last three weeks against the Titans, Colts and Bears. Brock Purdy has been smiling and dancing on a weekly basis, and Christian McCaffrey has mounted a stealth MVP campaign.
The Niners have overcome an avalanche of injuries this year, but doing it against the Seahawks would be unbelievably impressive. Future Hall-of-Fame left tackle Trent Williams isn't expected to play after straining his hamstring against the Bears. Bosa, who made that game-winning strip sack in Week 1, has been out since Week 3 with a torn ACL. McCaffrey will play but is nursing a bad back after his heavy workload last week.
The Niners can't stop anybody, but it hasn't mattered because their offense has been so historically efficient. They have no pass rush, ranking last in the league in sacks, and they have Bears fans booking hotel rooms in Canton for the 2046 Hall of Fame induction of Caleb Williams after what the former No. 1 pick was able to do to them last week. They also gave up 27 points and 277 yards passing the week before to Philip Rivers, who should have approximately 63 grandkids by time Caleb is inducted.
This Seahawks defense won't let the Niners just march up and down the field. They're going to get some stops, so this game comes down to one question. Do you have faith in Darnold to put up a big number against a defense that's being held together by an unhealthy amount of duct tape? Darnold has earned the league-wide skepticism of him in big games, but I think he gets the monkey off his back here. Everyone is moving it on this decimated Niners defense (they're also missing Fred Warner and Mykel Williams, among others), and after what Luther Burden did to that secondary last week, JSN might get the 291 receiving yards he needs to hit 2,000 for the year.
Darnold played one of the worst games of the year the first time he faced the Rams, but he showed a lot of heart to lead the comeback and beat them in a super important game two weeks ago. I think he'll show that he can come up big when it matters most, and Mike Macdonald's defense will use Williams' absence to keep Purdy under pressure all day. The Seahawks will win and get the bye.
Derrick Henry runs through the Steelers and carries the Ravens to the playoffs
ESPN's Dan Orlovsky called the Ravens the most disappointing team of the year, and he's not wrong. This is a team that had legitimate Super Bowl aspirations when the season began, but even after righting the ship after a 1-5 start, they've never really looked like the dominant team everyone thought they would be.
The Steelers are, as they always are, who we thought they are. Mike Tomlin doesn't go under .500, and he once again fulfilled his destiny, this time with Aaron Rodgers under center. Tomlin also hasn't helmed a real contender in almost a decade, though, so it feels like whether they lose to the Ravens this week or bow out in the Wild Card round to a more talented team, the black and yellow are coming up on the end of the line.
Lamar Jackson should be back for this game, but he hasn't come close to replicating his MVP form this year, even when healthy. His rushing numbers are way down, and that's always been a major part of his game. He just doesn't look like the same guy, to the point that it's a valid argument whether Tyler Huntley gives the Ravens a better chance to win.
The biggest problem with Baltimore has been their inexplicable habit of keeping Derrick Henry off the field when they need to close out a game. It's happened time and again, and frankly, it makes no sense. Henry is 31, which is ancient in running back years, but he's still a beast. He's played in every game and is averaging over five yards a carry, while still toting the rock more than all but three other players (Jonathan Taylor, James Cook and McCaffrey). He's been conspicuously on the bench in some of the season's biggest moments, though.
With their season on the line last week at Lambeau Field, the Ravens finally put the game in Henry's hands, and he didn't disappoint. He gashed the Packers for 216 yards and four touchdowns on 36 carries, and he only got stronger as the game went on, as 109 of those yards came on the Raven's two fourth-quarter drives.
If John Harbaugh wants to save his job, he's going to do the same thing this week. Henry took 25 carries for 94 yards in a losing effort against the Steelers in Week 14, but I'd be shocked if the Ravens don't hand it to him even more this week.
That game also had one key difference from this one. DK Metcalf was playing for the Steelers, and he went wild with seven catches and 148 yards. On Sunday though, he'll be serving the second game of his suspension for his altercation with a Lions fans a couple of weeks ago, and as we all saw in the Steelers' dismal loss to the Browns last week, this offense can't really function without him.
The Steelers tend to do well against the Ravens when they're underdogs, but for as disappointing as Baltimore has been, I just can't see them losing this game. Henry will carry the load, the Steelers won't be able to move the ball, and the Ravens will win this one by three touchdowns.
These will be the Wild Card Round matchups after the Week 18 dust settles
You could have made a lot of money by predicting these playoff seedings before the season began, but here's my best guess for how everything will shake out by Sunday's end.
Seed | AFC | NFC |
|---|---|---|
1 | Broncos | Seahawks |
2 | Patriots | Bears |
3 | Jaguars | Eagles |
4 | Ravens | Panthers |
5 | Texans | Rams |
6 | Bills | 49ers |
7 | Chargers | Packers |
If it all plays out like this, we're going to have some great playoff matchups. In the AFC, it will be Patriots vs. Chargers, Jaguars vs. Bills and Ravens vs. Texans, while the NFC will feature Bears vs. Packers, Eagles vs. 49ers and Panthers vs. Rams. As for bold predictions for those games, you're going to have to come back next week!